By Alexandria Grace C. Magno, A reporter
INVESTORS will look beyond the new policy promises in President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s speech. State of the Nation (SONA) on Monday, with analysts saying the long-term path of the stock market will depend on whether management can deliver tangible, long-lasting changes in the remaining time.
Although the speech may provide a short-term boost to investor sentiment, analysts say financial markets are likely to focus on policy implementation, regulatory consistency, and the government’s ability to translate commitments into legislation, budgets, and completed projects.
Managing Director of China Bank Capital Corp. Juan Paolo E. Colet said SONA should go beyond broad economic goals and identify specific reforms that will support growth.
“SONA presents an opportunity to set a clear and effective economic agenda. Besides setting a vision, it should identify specific policies and reforms that will promote growth, control inflation, and improve governance,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Colet said priorities should include accelerating the use of high-impact infrastructure, reducing electricity costs, strengthening food production and procurement, and building a globally competitive mining and minerals industry.
“If the President presents a strong and credible message of economic reforms, the domestic financial markets may react well, as the stock market may try to recover the level of 6,400 in the near term,” he added.
Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Marketing Toby Allan C. Arce echoed the sentiment, saying that investors often distinguish between policy announcements and plans that could reasonably be implemented before the end of the administration’s term.
“SONA itself is unlikely to initiate a lasting review of the Philippine equity market. Political rhetoric can create temporary momentum, especially if it contains business-related announcements, but equity investors often distinguish between policy announcements and actionable plans,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Arce said markets would respond well if the address sets clear economic direction, but any gains are likely to be short-lived unless Congress, executive agencies, and regulators follow through.
“The most important market signal will be whether the government can maintain policy continuity, avoid disruptive regulatory changes, and demonstrate that reform is a priority over sensible regulations and fiscal measures,” he said.
He said investors are expected to examine SONA by sector, with infrastructure, banking, real estate, utilities, renewable energy, and consumer stocks likely to respond to announcements supported by reliable implementation plans.
Areas expected to attract special attention include infrastructure delivery, public-private partnerships (PPPs), energy security, food supply, financial regulation, capital market reforms, and regulatory consistency.
Mr. Arce said investors will also look at ways that could negatively affect individual industries.
“Risks can also be sector-specific, especially if the address includes price controls, new taxes, strict industry regulations or regulations that increase operating costs without sufficient transition periods,” he added.
Investment & Capital Corp. of the Philippines President and Chief Operating Officer, Jesus Mariano P. Ocampo said investors are looking for strong signs that the administration remains committed to governance reform, especially its anti-corruption campaign.
“For SONA, the message of ‘desire’ from the President is actually for him to stop dealing with the problem of corruption. That was his main theme last time – and it seems that it has not really happened,” he said in a Viber message.
“So investors want to know if this is still what he’s after.”
Mr. Ocampo also said that investors are looking for clear plans to manage inflation risks caused by geopolitical tensions while maintaining a stable policy environment.
“From the point of view of the equity markets – the President should also be clear on several issues – dealing with inflation given the situation in Iran and its impact on fuel prices and exchange rates, and ensuring that the rules of the game do not change,” he said.
Mr Arce said that foreign investors are still focusing on policy credibility rather than headline growth targets.
“For foreign investors, the most important issue may be policy credibility rather than growth targets… This shows that international investors are not just asking for more incentives; they want regulatory predictability, efficient institutions, and certainty that laws will be applied consistently in all administrative and industrial areas,” he said.
He said the initial positive reception of SONA may improve sentiment, but foreign investors may be waiting for evidence that reforms are being implemented.
The government’s anti-corruption campaign last year weighed on economic growth, while controversy over so-called flood control plans dampened consumer and investor sentiment, contributing to weaker stock markets.
The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEi) index ended 2025 at 6,052.92, down 7.29%, or 475.87 points, from the end of 2024 closing at 6,528.79.
“The main difference is between the price of the announcement and the price of the implementation. The local equity can respond well to the signals of a credible policy immediately after the speech, but foreign investors may wait for the next law, budget adjustment and measurable agency action,” said Mr. Arce.
“So the most powerful result of the market will not be a large number of promises, but a focused and achievable agenda that shows that the administration can complete important economic reforms before the end of their term.”
