What’s next in the NBA offseason after LeBron’s decision? Harden, Draymond, Duren went to deals

After 24 days, the appearance of many live shows without revealing anything and almost a dozen podcasts from agent Rich Paul, LeBron James finally announced his decision to free agency on Friday, choosing the Philadelphia 76ers as the final chapter in his impressive career.

The news came as a pleasant surprise to the Sixers, who found themselves at odds with James after trading Jaylen Brown earlier in the summer, and a painful snub to the Cavaliers, Heat and Warriors, who were all hoping to get a call from James.

James extended his free agency by more than three weeks and held other NBA deals, including to create a plan for 2026-27but now that he’s in Philly, teams can focus their attention on completing their offseason activities.

At the league level, that means the schedule can begin to take shape. Philadelphia was already the center of attention in the East after the Browns trade, but now it will host more high-profile games with James in town — dates to come opening slates for Christmas Eve and Day now it’s very possible for the Sixers. At the team level, James fans who were hoping to get James now should turn to Plan B — limited options — and that could kick-start the restricted free agent market that has been quiet since the Walker Kessler signing and trade to the Lakers.

Let’s dive into what we can expect to see in the coming days and weeks now that James’ condition has been resolved.

When will James Harden, Draymond Green make deals?

Both Green and Harden declined player options to open up space and are patiently waiting to see if the Warriors or Cavaliers can acquire James. Now that James has chosen the 76ers, it is expected that both Green and Harden will use new long-term deals to return to their respective teams for a good price that will compensate them for their willingness to be good teammates to help pursue James.

Green, according to The Athletic, is expected to sign a deal in the $28 million range — roughly the same amount he declined in his player option. Harden’s new deal likely won’t match the $42.3 million he turned down per year, but a bigger long-term deal is on the way. There is still the question of when those deals were made. Both the Warriors and Cavaliers need to fill certain positions and having more flexibility with Green and Harden still unsigned would help in the pursuit of rotation talent.

What happens to restricted free agents?

James being out of free agency for over three weeks has put the RFA market on hold, but now Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson and Benedict Mathurin are the top players on the market. This is far from the first time restricted free agents have received tough negotiations, as the league’s approach to free agency has made it difficult for top RFAs to receive offer sheets. We’ve seen a few offer sheets come out this summer — the Grizzlies successfully poached Quinten Post from the Warriors, for example — but almost all of them aren’t below mid-level.

Very few teams enter the summer with significant cap space, and even if they do, teams fear that money is tied up in an offer sheet that another team can match. The result is that RFAs end up negotiating with their current team, who don’t want to make the mistake of overpaying when they are the only bidder. The way restricted free agents change teams is now a sign and trade, and that was complicated this summer by the Lakers sending the Jazz a ransom for Kessler.

Jalen Duren

Duren and Detroit have been at odds since before free agency began, and the Pistons seem confident in finding a team willing to give him more than what they put on the table. That didn’t happen, and the Pistons have made it clear that they have no intention of letting Duren go. Even if they were to listen to the All-NBA center, they would be asking for more than what LA sent to Utah for Kessler, and now that July is over, the list of potential suitors for Duren has dwindled.

Peyton Watson

The Nuggets are reportedly open to negotiating a sign-and-trade for Watson, but set the bar at the same price the Jazz were getting for an unprotected starter and two trades. That’s a low asking price and they’ll try to pressure Watson into signing in Denver — with apron concerns making those negotiations even more difficult. Denver also has to decide what to do with Spencer Jones, who reportedly grabbed a rare $12 million deal from the Thunder over two years. If they don’t match that, they will have more pressure to bring back Watson.

Benedict Mathurin

Mathurin is in Limbo in Los Angeles, where the Clippers were considered as Watson’s saviors, making things difficult with their restricted free agent, who was the best player they returned in the Ivica Zubac trade. The shooting guard may find himself in the wrong kind of season, as his superior ability as a solid shooter is undervalued in the league these days.

What are the factors in these decisions?

Restricted free agency has always given teams leverage in negotiations, but with the introduction of aprons and teams leaving big cap space in the summer — instead making big moves through trades — players entering the RFA market are finding it nearly impossible to increase their value. This is an unfortunate situation for Duren, Watson and Mathurin, and all three will have to decide whether to sign a deal that has been on the table for weeks or if they are willing to roll the dice on an eligibility bid to hit unrestricted free agency next summer.

What free agents are available?

Now that James is in Philly, the market should be open for other veterans in free agency. DeMar DeRozan, Jonathan Kuminga, Bradley Beal, Gabe Vincent, Russell Westbrook, Bruce Brown, Nicolas Batum, Kelly Olynyk and others will now begin to receive sincere offers, especially from other teams that missed out on James.

DeRozan could be a target for the Warriors or the Heat, and a reunion in Toronto is also in play. It is reported that Kuminga has received interest from the Cavaliers and Lakers, and Cleveland may want him to fill their need on the wing after missing out on James and seeing Dean Wade also leave Philly. Beal and Vincent would both make sense as targets for the Heat as they try to fill their frontcourt with more talent to complement their star-studded frontcourt of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.

The Warriors are always looking for veterans to strengthen around Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and the Nuggets and Timberwolves, while they knew that they were long-shot James, they still have work to do to strengthen their rotation to try to compete with the Thunder and Spurs at the top of the West.