Rams Super Bowl odds: Why history is working against the NFL’s biggest favorite
On paper, the Los Angeles Rams arguably have the best roster in the NFL. They boast the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett and one of the best receiving duos in the NFL with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
If there was one roster hole heading into the offseason, it was back. They quickly fixed that by stealing two players from Kansas City: They traded for Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson.
Basically, the Rams’ roster is completely stacked, and as a result, Sean McVay’s team is the heavy favorite to win Super Bowl LXI.
In fact, the Rams are an unprecedented favorite to win the Super Bowl this year.
Let’s check out the top five favorites (problems with FanDuel):
1. Rams (+550)
2. Credits (+1000)
3. Crows (+1100)
4. Seahawks (+1200)
T-5. Kings (+1600)
T-5. Chargers (+1600)
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, this marks just the fifth time we’ve seen a Super Bowl favorite like this odd under +1000. It is the second NFC team.
Being a heavy hitter can create expectations, and sometimes it can be difficult to live up to. If you need proof, just look at four other teams that have gone through what the Rams are about to go through.
Here are four previous instances where there was only one team with preseason odds below +1000 (problems with Pro Football Reference).
2003 Buccaneers
Super Bowl Odds: +800
Under/Under: 10.5 wins
Coming off a Super Bowl win in 2002, the Bucs were expected to make another run at the Lombardi Trophy. Their season went downhill fast. They started 2-1, but after week 4, their season went downhill. In Week 5, Tampa Bay hit a highlight reel against Peyton Manning’s Colts: The Bucs led 35-14 with four minutes left in the game and ended up losing 38-35. It tied the Bucs 2-2, and finished 7-9 this season.
The Bucs were the favorites to make the Super Bowl, but in the end, they didn’t even make it to the finals. The Rams are the first NFC team in 23 years to be a Super Bowl favorite, and as we can see here, things didn’t go well for the last NFC team to be in this position.
2009 Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: + 450
Under/Under: 11.5
Tom Brady missed the 2008 season after tearing his ACL in Week 1, but that didn’t slow the Patriots down. With Matt Cassel running the program, they won 11 games. In 2009, the Pats got their legendary QB back on the field, and when that happened, the thought was that New England would take out the competition, but that’s not really the case. With Brady back in the lineup, the Patriots went 10-6, their best win total since 2008. To make matters worse, they didn’t even make it past the opening round of the playoffs. During the wild card round, the Pats were completely destroyed 33-14 by the Ravens after falling behind 24-0.
2010 Colts
Super Bowl Odds: +800
Under/Under: 10.5
The Patriots were a Super Bowl favorite in 2009, but fell short in the big game. Instead, it was Peyton Manning and the Colts out of the AFC (They lost to the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV). Manning and the Colts went 14-2 in 2009, setting the stage for the odds to crown them the 2010 Super Bowl favorite.
The Colts had high expectations, and were considered heavy favorites to get back to the big game, but that didn’t happen. In Manning’s last healthy season with the team, the Colts finished 10-6, and didn’t come close to winning the Super Bowl after losing 17-16 to the Jets in the wild card round.
2018 Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: + 600
Under/Under: 11
The 2018 Patriots are the only team that can handle the expectations that come with being a Super Bowl favorite. Although the Patriots were seen as the best team entering this season, it was the Chiefs who ended up winning number 1 in the AFC and they did so in the first year of Patrick Mahomes starting this team.
In the playoffs, the 11-5 Patriots had to travel to Kansas City in the AFC title game in what ended up being an all-time record when New England prevailed, 37-31, in overtime.
One of the most popular plays in that game came when Dee Ford jumped offside with about a minute left in the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs were up 28-24. The penalty nullified Brady’s interception, setting the stage for New England’s dramatic victory.
In the Super Bowl, the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 to give Tom Brady and Bill Belichick their last Lombardi Trophy together.
Rams have many obstacles in their way
When you’re a Super Bowl favorite, you have high expectations, but when you become an overrated favorite, the expectations that come with that can crush you, and history shows that.
If you look at the four major Super Bowl favorites that came before the Rams, all four fell short of expectations during the regular season. Three of the four teams finished below their win total, and the 2018 Patriots pushed, so none of them hit more. The Rams’ over/under is set at 11.5, and while the over sounds like a lock, history has shown that teams considered the best can sometimes stumble.
The Rams fell one game short of making the Super Bowl last year, but it’s important to note that their 2025 season was nearly wiped out before it even started. Stafford missed most of training camp with a back injury last season, and if that resurfaces for him this year, that could be a big problem for the Rams. Stafford made it through the 2025 season injury-free, but he always seems to be thinking about his back. At the NFL Honors ceremony in February, he jokingly mentioned his back when asked how he felt about the Rams’ Week 1 game in Australia.
“It looks like a long flight,” Stafford said. “I hope my back won’t hurt too much after that, to be honest with you.”
Even if Stafford and the Rams stay healthy, getting to the Super Bowl won’t be easy. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football, which happens to include the defending Super Bowl champions. The Seahawks won the Lombardi Trophy, but they’re the Rams with a big target on their back because of their status as an unprecedented Super Bowl favorite.
