This is the fourth in a series of ten questions against the Buffalo Bills as they train at the University of St. John Fisher.
The two most important moves the Buffalo Bills made in the offseason regarding their offense were re-signing center Connor McGovern and acquiring wide receiver DJ Moore from the Chicago Bears.
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But if the Bills can somehow get a full, healthy and productive season from the end of a solid fourth year for Dalton Kincaid, that could end up being a big needle mover for Josh Allen.
“It’s probably the best I’ve ever felt in my career this season,” Kincaid said at the end of the offseason program in June. “Not having those knee thoughts, especially last year. I feel a lot better and I don’t think about it outside.”
Nice, but that’s spring football without pads. The Bills can hope Kincaid feels that way throughout the 2026 season because if he can give them more than the 38% of snaps he was on the field last year, that would be a huge improvement.
Why the Bills remain convinced that Dalton Kincaid can be the difference
Shortly after coach Sean McDermott was fired and Joe Brady was promoted, Brandon Beane was asked if he expected to give Kincaid a fifth-year option on his first rookie contract. That decision didn’t have to be made for another three months, but Beane had already made the call.
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Asked why he would give it given Kincaid’s injury history, Beane was more than happy to rattle off some stats that show just how important Kincaid is to the offense. In games played by Kincaid last season, the Bills were 11-3 in the postseason and scored 30.1 points; They were 2-3 in the games they missed and averaged 23.0 points.
Dalton Kincaid #86 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Wild Card Playoff game at EverBank Stadium on January 11, 2026 in Jacksonville, Florida.
“So yes, I’m putting in a fifth-year option,” Beane said.
The 2023 first-round draft pick set the Bills’ record for receptions by a tight end in his first season with 73 and was the fourth-highest receiving total by a rookie in NFL history. But he wasn’t as productive in the first half of 2024 when he had 32 catches for 332 yards and two TDs in the first nine games, and then his health issues hit.
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He sprained his knee in Week 10 at Indianapolis and missed the next three games (and sat out the meaningless season finale) and over his last six games of the postseason managed just 16 catches for 160 yards and no TDs.
Last year he got off to a strong start with 20 receptions for 287 yards and three TDs in the first five games including a career-high 108 yards against the Patriots, but then an oblique and hamstring injury bit him, followed by a late season knee injury and between missing five games and playing limited snap numbers in the others, he finished with 57 receptions and just five TDs.
The snap managers had good results in the postseason as Kincaid played two strong games against the Jaguars and Broncos, but when the season ended, in consultation with the Bills medical staff, he chose not to have surgery on his ailing knee, and ended up resting and rehabbing to get back to normal. It sounds like a curious decision, but Beane was there this way.
“It could be one of those things, okay, you don’t do surgery this year, and let’s say it flares up or it gets worse, maybe next year the doctor is like, ‘Okay, we tried not doing surgery, you’ve had some of the same things, maybe we should try surgery now,'” Beane said. “You’ll never want to do surgery unless you can say that’s what’s needed. Docs love to do surgery, so I respect them and they say that’s not what we recommend here.”
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Why a healthy Kincaid would raise the Bills case
Having served as an offensive coordinator since mid-2023, Brady knows how valuable a healthy Kincaid can be.
“I want the pads to start and football season to start because he had a great season,” said Brady. “I’m happy where he is and his head space, he’s a person who likes to run and we play better when he’s out on the field and there’s no denying that.”
Tight end is the tight end for the Bills because if Kincaid is down, Dawson Knox – who started four years before Kincaid’s arrival – has been a solid player who helps in the passing game and is a better run blocker than Kincaid. And Buffalo’s 2025 fifth-round pick, Jackson Hawes, became one of the best run-blockers in the league as a senior, and he also showed glimpses of his ability to catch the ball.
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It’s one of the best three-man teams in the league, but only if Kincaid is on the field and playing the way the Bills thought he would when they traded up two spots in 2023 to make sure they could draft him.
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as a full-time D&C writer/columnist. He has written several books on the team’s history, and is also the host of BLEAV on the Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article first appeared in the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Why the Bills’ offensive X-factor may not be new.
