2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions with model that hit 17 majors
Americans have won each of the last three British Opens, with Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman making it through. From 2003-06 US-born golfers won the major four straight times, a drought that many will look to end at The Open 2026. In addition to the aforementioned, the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark are contenders for the 2026 Open Championship. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Aaron Rai are among the Brits looking to win the British Open 2026.
Scheffler is a +700 favorite (risk $100 to win $700) in the Open Championship 2026 odds of repeating after last year’s victory. McIlroy (+850), Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) and Jon Rahm (+2200) round out the top five. Jordan Spieth, who won The Open the last time Royal Birkdale was hosted in 2017, is a +8000 longshot to be used in 2026 British Open betting. Before closing any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 Open Championship predictions and the proposed leaderboard from the verified computer model at SportsLine.
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Ownership of SportsLine golf betting the model, developed by DFS expert Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. The same model also held 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters – its fifth consecutive Masters – and last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Now that the field for the 2026 British Open is locked in, the model is simulating the tournament 10,000 times, and the results have been surprising. Go to SportsLine now to see the proposed leaderboard.
2026 Open Championship predictions by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark
One pick in The Open 2026 model: Wyndham Clark (+3300), the latest major champion after winning the US Open for the second time, has stumbled and never cracked the top 25. While Clark seems to have learned the lessons from the US Open, the same cannot be said for all other majors. He has 13 combined starts in three other majors and one top-20 finish. He’s had almost as many missed tackles (six) as made cuts (seven) out of those 13.
Royal Birkdale is one of the 10 shortest courses in use during the 2026 PGA Tour schedule, so driving distance is not an issue. However, the course has more than 100 bunkers, so accuracy is very important. Clark is only 83rd in driving accuracy percentage and only 65th in green in control percentage. One should not expect another run on the leaderboard from Clark in this major as he will fade away in the Open Championship stakes.
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The model also assessed McIlroy’s (+850) chances of becoming a two-time Open champion, after winning the event 12 years ago in 2014. He remains the last Briton to win the British Open and is aiming to become the 12th golfer with seven major championships. McIlroy has been a fixture on the leaderboard in recent editions of this major, with three top 10s and three finishes of 46th or worse in his six Open starts. He has a promising track record at Royal Birkdale, finishing fourth when the course hosted the 2017 Open Championship. If he can use the momentum from that showing and move up the leaderboard, McIlroy’s seventh major title will tie him with Harry Vardon for the most of any British golfer.
This model has also locked in his rating of Scheffler (+700) who, with victory at Royal Birkdale, became the first back-to-back Open champion since Tiger Woods in 2005-06. Scheffler has never had a bad performance at this major, notching top 25s in all five of his first Opens. Although his top 5 and top 10 finishes are consistent with what he did two years ago, the victories did not continue. He won his first tournament in 2026 but was beaten in the next 13 events.
The difference this year may be Scheffler’s opening round struggles as he has led the cycle in Round 1 hitting in each of the past three seasons. However, he is ranked 34th this year and often finds himself in a hole he can’t get out of. However, his metrics are unmatched on the PGA Tour as Scheffler leads it in strokes gained: total, scoring average and birdie average. See the full Open Championship predictions from the model here.
How to make 2026 Open Championship picks
The model also targets several longshots, including one that goes about 35-1. You can only see the model selection here.
Who will win the 2026 British Open, a long shot that will shock the golf world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and visit SportsLine to see the proposed leaderboard, all from the 17-pin golf model, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 Open Championship odds, favorites
Get the full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds with FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +700
Rory McIlroy +750
Tommy Fleetwood +1500
Matt Fitzpatrick +1500
Jon Rahm +2200
Xander Schauffele +2700
Wyndham Clark +3300
Viktor Hovland +3000
Chris Gotterup +3000
Collin Morikawa +3300
Cameron Young +3300
Ludvig Åberg +3300
Justin Rose +3300
Robert MacIntyre +3300
Tyrrell Hatton +3500
Shane Lowry +4500
Si Woo Kim +4000
Min Woo Lee +5000
Russell Henley +4500
Patrick Reed +5000
Tom Kim +4500
Patrick Cantlay +5500
Justin Thomas +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Bryson DeChambeau +6000
Aaron Rai +6500
Joaquin Niemann +6500
Brooks Koepka +8000
Alex Fitzpatrick +7000
JJ Spaun +7000
Jordan Spieth +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Corey Conners +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Nicolai Højgaard +10000
Harris English +8000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Ryan Gerard +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Hideki Matsuyama +10000
Bud Cauley +12500
Matt Wallace +12500
Victor Perez +15000
Sepp Straka +15000
Eugenio Chacarra +15000
Max Homa +17500
Cameron Smith +15000
Ryan Fox +12500
JT Poston +15000
David Puig +17500
Jacob Bridgeman +17500
Alex Smalley +17500
Jake Knapp +17500
Marco Penge +17500
Jordan Smith +15000
Tom McKibbin +17500
Michael Kim +17500
Casey Jarvis +22500
Max Greyserman +17500
Nick Taylor +17500
Angel Ayora +17500
Keith Mitchell +17500
Jason Day +15000
Gary Woodland +17500
Johnny Keefer +17500
Michael Thorbjornsen +15000
Sungjae Im +25000
John Parry +25000
Haotong Li +22500
Sahith Theegala +25000
Rasmus Højgaard +25000
Harry Hall +17500
Eric Cole +22500
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +22500
Aldrich Potgieter +22500
Sami Valimaki +25000
Jayden Schaper +25000
Pierceson Coody +22500
Sam Stevens +25000
Jackson Suber +25000
Lucas Herbert +25000
Laurie Canter +25000
Thomas Detry +25000
Michael Brennan +25000
Matt McCarty +25000
Ryo Hisatsune +25000
Daniel Hillier +50000
Andrew Novak +35000
Daniel Berger +25000
Bernd Wiesberger +35000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Matthew Jordan +35000
Stewart Cink +35000
Hennie du Plessis +50000
Jesper Svensson +50000
Billy Horschel +50000
Scott Vincent +50000
Keita Nakajima +50000
Daniel Brown +35000
Andy Sullivan +35000
Francesco Molinari +35000
Shaun Norris +100000
Kazuma Kobori +75000
Adrien Saddy +75000
Francesco Laporta +50000
Jose Luis Ballester +50000
Joe Dean +100000
Peter Uihlein +100000
Alejandro De Castro Piera +100000
Kota Kaneko +100000
Neville Ruiter +100000
Matthew Southgate +100000
Baard Bjoernevik Skogen +100000
Travis Smith +100000
Dan Bradbury +75000
Naoyuki Kataoka +100000
MJ Daffue +100000
Marcus Plunkett +100000
Cameron John +100000
Tiger Christensen +100000
Ryutaro Nagano +100000
Jeong Woo Ham +100000
Lev Grinberg +100000
Martin Couvra +100000
Jack Buchanan +100000
Joakim Lagergren +100000
Frederic Lacroix +100000
Stuart Grehan +100000
Matthew Baldwin +100000
Kazuki Higa +100000
Sam Bairstow +100000
Darren Clarke +100000
Fifa Laopakdee +100000
David Duval +100000
Padraig Harrington +100000
Mason Howell +100000
Ren Yonezawa +100000
Jiho Yang +100000
James Nicholas +100000
Michael Hollick +100000
David Howard +100000
Mateo Pulcini +100000
Henrik Stenson +100000
Tim Wiedemeyer +100000
Jack McDonald +100000
Antoine Rozner +75000
Caleb Surratt +100000
Alistair Docherty +100000
Austen Truslow +100000
Tom Sloman +100000
