Relegation candidates in college football: Ohio State, Texas A&M totals down

College football has a way of pulling teams back to the middle. Even the best plans rarely escape the forces that make continued success so difficult.

Most of the preseason ratings are very close to last year’s marks. Of the 68 Power Four teams (including Notre Dame), 48 have a win total within 1.5 games of their 2025 regular season exits, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Oddsmakers don’t expect big swings for most teams, but a few stand out, with win totals that have dropped or increased significantly from where they finished last season.

Relegation does not necessarily mean a disappointing season. In many cases, teams coming off good campaigns will always struggle to repeat that success. Others are simply dealing with tighter schedules, greater roster turnover or coaching changes that have lowered expectations.

Below are the 10 teams FanDuel projects will be the biggest drop in 2026. Next week, we’ll flip through the script and look at the teams we expect to take the biggest step forward. But for now, it’s a very optimistic list.

State of Ohio

2025 regular season wins: 12 | FanDuel win total: 9.5

If a team is undefeated in the regular season, anything short of another positive sign reads like a setback. The Buckeyes have the third-highest preseason win total in the Big Ten, according to FanDuel, but mostly behind reigning champions Indiana and Oregon.

The most likely reason Ohio State will fail in 2026 is the strength of schedule, which serves as one of the toughest in the country for opposing games. six teams in CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25. It’s certainly not a lack of talent or coaching, that’s for sure. Ryan Day’s team returns the original sum of 11including eight in a single case.

Still, it would be unwise to bet on the Buccaneers. They have lost more than two regular season games once since 2005.

Texas A&M

2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 8.5

The Aggies finally found some long-awaited success last year, reaching an 11-win regular season for just the second time in program history. Tracking that down won’t be easy in 2026.

The conference grind gets tougher with a new nine-game schedule, and Texas A&M’s SEC gauntlet is noticeably tighter than last year. The list was also impressive.

The Aggies matched a program record with 10 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. The transfer portal pull helps correct some of that, but the step back from expectations is a reality. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Texas A&M has averaged 7.5 regular season wins per year.

BYU

2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 8.5

If anyone is in a position to knock Texas Tech from its sudden rise to power in the Big 12, it’s BYU. The Cougars are ranked third nationally in rebounding percentage, returning 62.5% of last year’s productionincluding quarterback Bear Bachmeier and preseason Big 12 Player of the Year LJ Martin at running back.

Another double-digit win season would be Kalani Sitake’s fifth in the last eight years, but it hinges on a few throw-in games: a home date with Arizona, and road trips to TCU and Utah. A win over Notre Dame in Provo on Oct. 17 will go a long way for BYU to avoid a setback.

In Oklahoma

2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 7.5

If Brent Venables’ up-and-down tenure has taught us anything, it’s that consistency is hard to come by. The Sooners turned in six- and 10-win regular seasons during his first four years in Norman, making another dip seem like the logical next step.

Despite returning 14 starters (tied for second-most in the FBS) and receiving a healthy John Mateer, Oklahoma faces one of the nation’s most unforgiving programs. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Sooners enter mid-October with three losses, facing road trips to Michigan and Georgia before the Red River Rivalry with Texas in Week 6. And the schedule is not easy from there.

November features four contenders on CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25 (Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri), leaving little margin for error if Oklahoma once again fights for a college playoff spot.

Virginia

2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 7.5

No FBS roster has more experience than Virginia. In an era of portal churn, that’s a valuable asset, but it hasn’t swayed the oddsmakers. A year after posting their 10-win regular season in program history and reaching the ACC Championship game, there’s reason to believe some decline is coming.

Virginia ran one of the easiest programs in the Power Four last season and also avoided most of the ACC’s top contenders in 2026. But last year’s record was backed up by a four-game stretch in which the Cavaliers won three overtime battles and survived one with a late safety. It’s hard to get back to that luck.

Georgia Tech

2025 regular season wins: 9 | FanDuel win total: 6.5

Perhaps the collapse of Georgia Tech in November was a sign of things to come in 2026. The lows won’t pan out for Brent Key, but this offseason presents a real challenge. Most abusive workers are different, with only 24% of images returnedand both contacts had to be replaced.

Dlulisa linebacker Alberto Mendoza, the younger brother of Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, is an offensive starter but has never started in college. Nine victories were hard to come by. To do it again with this many new episodes will be asking a lot.

Wake Forest

2025 regular season wins: 8 | FanDuel win total: 5.5

The Demon Deacons were one of the best in college football in year 1 under coach Jake Dickert. Picked to finish second to last in the ACC preseason media poll, Wake Forest won eight regular season games. And though 10 starters are back from that teamJust two are on offense, with the Demon Deacons accepting transfer quarterback Gio Lopez and pairing him with an offensive line with the least experience in the Power Four. Wake Forest will also face seven of its nine ACC opponents with a higher projected win margin. Overachieving twice in a row is a tall order.

Ole Miss

2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 7.5

Imagine where this preseason win total would have been if Trinidad Chambliss had not won his legal battle for another year of eligibility. Ole Miss is one of the more mysterious teams in college football, where the momentum from last year’s run to the College Football Playoff semifinals under Pete Golding could continue, or fade away if reality hits without Lane Kiffin. He brought the program to new heights, perhaps benefiting from a weak program by SEC standards the past two seasons. This is not the case in 2026, Golding will face six ranked teams CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25.

Iowa State

2025 regular season wins: 8 | FanDuel win total: 4.5

After decades of struggling to find consistent success, Iowa State has finally discovered what it’s like to be a consistent winner under Matt Campbell. Now, with Campbell gone, the Cyclones enter a new season that could come with growing pains. First-year coach Jimmy Rogers expressed confidence that Iowa State can stay competitive, but roster turnover can’t be ignored. The Cyclones are ranked among the smallest FBS teams return generation and we’ve welcomed 82 amazing new people as Rogers reshapes the program.

Vanderbilt

2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 5.5

Diego Pavia capped arguably the greatest season by a quarterback in Vanderbilt history, leading the Commodores to a program-record 10 regular-season wins. Following that was always going to be difficult. Five-star true freshman Jared Curtis has all the physical tools to be the program’s next star under center, but asking an unproven quarterback to quickly duplicate Pavia’s production in the SEC is asking a lot. Vanderbilt should remain respectable under Clark Lea, but matching last season’s success seems unlikely as the Commodores transition to a new face on offense.