2026 fantasy football ranking: Sleepers, breaks, busts in model that revealed Daniel Jones’ big season
Now that the Fourth of July has passed, NFL training camps are just a few weeks away. The early 2026 fantasy football ADP is starting to take shape as Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua are the first players off the board on average. Those are the most obvious picks at the top of the 2026 Fantasy Football draft, but deep football programs are built with solid picks in the later rounds.
Who are the top 2026 football sleepers, breaks and busts, and how should you approach your 2026 football draft? Before setting your 2026 football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2026 fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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Last year, the model accurately predicted that Colts quarterback Daniel Jones would fully realize his potential in his first year in Indy. He was QB10 before the season-ending injury in Week 14. Jones finished the year as QB17 as the model had him as a top-15 Fantasy quarterback entering 2025. Anyone who took a chance on him in the fantasy football draft was certainly rewarded when he was in the league.
The same model has a proven track record of providing football tips, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s terrible season in 2021, calling Rachaad White’s breakout in 2023 and identifying Isiah Pacheco as a breakout in 2025. In addition, it named football legends like AJ Brown in 2020, Christian McCrafrey, Alvin McClafrey, Alvin McChnfrey, Alvin McChn19 and Alvin Al. 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest football rankings for 2026 league PPR and non-PPR teams, as well as dozens of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head over to SportsLine now to see them.
The top fantasy football sleepers of 2026
One of the 2026 football quarterbacks the model predicts: Bucks running back Kenneth Gainwell. The former Eagle put together an impressive career throughout Pittsburgh last year and finished with 1,023 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. He then joined Tampa as a free agent, replacing Rachaad White, who left for Washington. However, Gainwell will not be a backup to Bucky Irving, as coach Todd Bowles names Gainwell as the 1B in Irving’s 1A, and is considering the skill set of the former and the final season of 2025.
Gainwell caught 73 catches last year and now joins the Bucs’ favorite RB target as White gets the third most at the position starting in 2022. Additionally, Irving struggled to stay on the field last year, missing seven games with multiple injuries and ranking last among professional players with just 3.4 yards per carry. Gainwell is coming off a career-best 4.7 ypc and has had as many touchdowns from inside the 10-yard-line (6) as Irving has had from inside the 10. The model favors Gainwell ahead of obvious RB1s like Tony Pollard and Chuba Hubbard. See other Fantasy Football 2026 sleepers here.
2026 fantasy football highlights
One of the fantasy football breakouts of 2026 the model predicts: Jaguars run in Bhayshul Tuten. A fourth-round pick in 2025, Tuten had 386 yards and 7 touchdowns as a rookie in backup to Travis Etienne. The latter has since joined the Saints, putting Tuten atop the depth chart. He impressed when given opportunities as a rookie, scoring in all four games and having at least nine touchdowns.
Tuten is a home run threat in a needy offense as he had the fastest 40-yard dash time of any running back in the 2025 draft class. Etienne had nearly 1,400 total yards and 13 touchdowns last year, and Jacksonville loves to run the ball, ranking eighth in 2025 attempts. Tuten is set to shine as a sophomore and launch as a mid-round pick in Fantasy football 2026. See more Fantasy football 26 games here.
Top soccer coaches of 2026
As for players to avoid, the model points to Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. The new Super Bowl-winning QB’s impact on the field is undeniable, but that doesn’t mean it translates to Fantasy. Darnold runs a running offense that ranked third in rushing attempts last year and just 29th in passing attempts. Even with the limited opportunities, Darnold still led the NFL with 20 turnovers, as he had the second most fumbles (6) and the third most (14).
Add in the fact that Darnold provides nothing as a pass rusher — as he had less than 100 rushing yards and 0 TDs last year — and he has a low Fantasy ceiling. Losing Super Bowl MVP, Kenneth Walker III, won’t make things any easier for the quarterback as the defense is likely to devote more resources to stopping the pass than Seattle’s running game. After finishing as QB14 last year, SportsLine’s advanced model has Darnold as QB20 in its 2026 fantasy football rankings. See more Fantasy Football 2026 events here.
How to get 2026 Fantasy football proven rates
SportsLine is also very high on the surprising tight ends you don’t even think about being taken in the first rounds of the 2026 Fantasy football draft. The tight end is listed as a shocking top-8 option ahead of stars like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta. You can only see who it is, and the 2026 soccer rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2026 fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which TE shocks the NFL with a top 8 performance? Visit SportsLine now for 2026 football cheat sheets for all areas, all from the model that called Daniel Jones’ breakout season in 2025, and find out.
