MLB teams have something to prove in July: Blue Jays, Mariners among seven teams

The important month of July is here. In the Major League Baseball season, that means the festivities of the All-Star break, the start of the second half, and — mostly — the arrival of the Aug. trade deadline. 3 of this year. For many teams, the goal is to compete and thus position themselves as buyers leading to that deadline. The bar for such looks very low this season, which could mean a side full of buyers and, thus, a huge demand for any talents on the block.

That brings us to the seven teams yet to be named. For them, their status as competitors is somewhat worrying. Others defy expectations and need to maintain that element of surprise to inspire. Others are dealing with a sense of disappointment and are trying to put it off and get back to the business of having a season to remember.

Regardless of the exact circumstances, these teams (listed alphabetically) have something to prove in July if they are going to continue to matter and perhaps strengthen their roster before the deadline.

1. Baltimore Orioles (40-48)

With a change in management and new faces to go along with their core of young/young/very young players, the O’s were expected to bounce back in 2026. Throw in the signing of Pete Alonso, and the expected extras. Overall, he said, expectations have not been met, as Baltimore is eight games under .500 and underwater on a different run. That said — a recurring theme — the level of playoff contention in the American League is embarrassingly low right now, and the O’s are living in that third and final wild card spot, sitting five games back. June has been their worst month of the season so far, so they need to turn those fortunes around quickly if they’re going to get a roster upgrade heading into the deadline.

2. Chicago White Sox (45-41)

As of this writing, the White Sox lead the AL Central and thus aim to make the postseason for the first time since 2021. What stands out, though, is that the Sox — fresh off a deep and punishing rebuild — are on pace to improve on their 2025 win total by 26. You will remember that, 4 White’s record 202 lost 202 games. In other words, general manager Chris Getz’s rebuild is ahead of schedule. Their lead over the Guardians is small, but the Sox have the best run differential in the division by a significant margin. Also, José Ramírez is weeks away from returning to Cleveland’s roster. Getz should clearly resist any temptation to sell and should buy at least on the margins. That, however, will mean the Sox need to keep it going in July and solidify the idea that they are for real in 2026.

3. Detroit Tigers (38-50)

Will the Tigers trade ace, back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, and pending free agent Tarik Skubal before Aug. 3? That’s one of the biggest questions in baseball right now. Detroit was committed to making the playoffs for a third straight year in 2026, but things have not gone as planned. The current tie finds them 12 games under .500 and no closer to a playoff spot (though not buried in the wild card standings). That said, the Tigers have outscored opponents this season and have a “decent” 45-43 record. That should be tempting when it comes to retaining Skubal for a potential playoff payout and a chance to make a run at the franchise’s first title since 1984. Signs point to selling right now, but a quality July could put the Tigers in a good spot and make them soft buyers at the deadline instead of the team making phone call after phone call about one of baseball’s best pitchers.

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4. San Diego Padres (43-43)

There is a general feeling that the Padres’ window to compete is starting to close and that 2026 may be their last best chance for a while. AJ Preller is a “chips all-in” type of manager, and there’s no doubt he wants to be despite a depleted farm system. However, the Pads have some work to do. They are within striking distance of the National League (three games back of the last wild card spot), but have been significantly outscored by the opposition (note that their run differential was in negative territory even before the recent 23-2 massacre at Wrigley). From June 11-15, the Padres need to at least stay above the waterline in July to secure some work for Preller before the deadline.

5. Seattle Mariners (45-43)

The M’s have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this season. They reached Game 7 of the ALCS last year, and by 2026, they were expected to be a true force in the American League. The current posting, however, finds Seattle below .500 and tied with the Texas Rangers atop baseball’s weakest division, the AL West. Cal Raleigh is injured and ineffective when he’s on the field, and the offense has regressed from last season’s levels. The Mariners won’t be trading, but any kind of aggressive buying may require them to get their expected quality, or at least show it, in the coming weeks.

6. St. Louis Cardinals (45-39)

The Cardinals, under first-year president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, are focused on rebuilding a core of young talent and bringing the player development program back to industry standards. And in service of that this past season, they traded for veterans Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado. Still, the Cardinals are in the NL playoff spot and, like the White Sox, are ahead of schedule. It’s still possible the Cardinals will look to move veterans Dustin May and Lars Nootbaar at the deadline, and Bloom could make those moves regardless of their position, taking on a tough market. The Cardinals could make that move less likely — and maybe even prompt Bloom to make, say, a bullpen addition — by making a commitment this month. They’ve dipped their toes into a challenging program, so the Cardinals will know more about who they really are by the time the deadline rolls around.

7. Toronto Blue Jays (41-46)

We noted above that the Mariners are one of the most disappointing teams in 2026, but the Blue Jays — the reigning AL pennant winners who pushed the Dodgers to the brink of the World Series — i Very disappointing team of 2026. As of this writing, the AL Champs are on pace for 86 losses, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., their $500 million first baseman, has exactly four home runs on the year. This is the 2026 AL, which means the Jays are still very much in the playoff mix so they could be buyers. However, if the struggles continue in July and regress, that “buying” may become less ambitious or disappear altogether.