Selection of Aces vs. WNBA Fever: It all depends on A’ja Wilson’s condition
The NBA Cup has been a successful addition to the lineup in recent years – it turns out that the 2025 Cup Final is also the first NBA Finals showdown between the Knicks and Spurs. The WNBA’s version, the Commissioner’s Cup, has been around for a long time. That title game is tonight. as Las Vegas, which represents the Western Conference, visits New York, which represents the East, at 7 ET on Prime Video, but the Aces may not have the league’s best player.
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Aces vs. Liberty WNBA single-game parlay
- New York money line
- Alt Under 183.5
FanDuel SGP price: -119
It is the only game on the WNBA slate between Monday and Wednesday, but it does not count in any way toward the regular season statistically (team or player), as does the NBA Cup title game. All other Commissioner’s Cup and NBA Cup games count toward regular season statistics.
It’s not out of the question that this could be a preview of the WNBA Finals, with Las Vegas holding second best in the league at 14-5 and New York fifth at 12-8. Either the Aces (+350 to win it all) or the Liberty (+330) have won the past four WNBA titles, and met in the 2024 finals.
We also have a few legends coming together in three-time league MVP A’ja Wilson of Las Vegas, the current -260 favorite for fourth, and two-time winner Breanna Stewart (+3000) of New York. They combined to win MVPs in four regular seasons.
In his eight-point game Sunday in Chicago, Wilson had 30 points and 15 rebounds in his 99th game with 20 points and 10 rebounds. She trails only Tina Charles (109) in league history, and it was Wilson’s eighth WNBA record 30/15 game. It was her 43rd 30-point game, which ranks 2nd all-time behind Diana Taurasi’s 54.
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Wilson appeared to tweak his ankle in the fourth quarter to look for a loose ball but got up with his own strength and ran off the field into the tunnel. He will eventually return to the game but is listed as questionable tonight. The 29-year-old has missed just six games in the past seven seasons. Sunday marked the seventh time this season the Aces have reached triple digits. Guard Chennedy Carter (14.1 PPG) made his first appearance after missing five games with an undisclosed illness.
Las Vegas is third in scoring at 90.7 PPG, while Wilson is first at 25.7 PPG. He leads the way with six games with 30 points and is set to Over 24.5 points tonight and 9.5 rebounds. The Aces went 1-1 in Commissioner’s Cup title games, beating Chicago in 2022 and losing to New York the following year. No franchise has won this twice.
The Liberty suffered their fourth loss in five games on Sunday, 76-67 at Golden State. Their 65 points were a season low, and trailed by at least 20 points in the second game this season
Stewart challenged his team to play hard afterward: “You can’t play with heart and play hard when things are going well. There are really times when you’re at your lowest. And this team — obviously it’s not the finished product, but this wasn’t a good show, especially coming off a loss.”
Liberty forward, Satou Sabally, was placed on the concussion program last Thursday and will not return. Sabally is third on the team in scoring at 10.8 PPG. New York has one of its best players in French guard Pauline Astier. He became the fourth player in the last 10 seasons to record at least 200 points, 75 assists, 60 rebounds and 15 steals in his first 20 games. Caitlin Clark is one that does. Liberty won 1-1 in the Commissioner’s Cup final.
The only team New York — under first-year head coach Chris DeMarco — has beaten since June 19 is Las Vegas, as the Liberty won 87-76 on the road on June 23 (Sbally was injured in that one). They scored another 3 points over the Aces. Stewart scored 15 of her 20 points in the second half, while Sabrina Ionescu had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Wilson had 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists and four steals in the losing effort.
“I feel like we’re going to have a sense of urgency to come back and play them in New York next week,” Aces coach Becky Hammon said at the time.
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I’ll take coach Hammon at his word that this is important to his club and assume Wilson is playing. The models I’ve tested generally have the Aces winning 88-86 with the assumption that Wilson will be ready. UPDATE: Wilson is out, so I’ve moved from Aces alt +5.5 to Liberty ML. Check out more expert picks in SportsLine’s daily newsletter.
