The MLB case has grown in popularity in recent weeks, raising questions about the ‘jumped’ ball.

Hitting in Major League Baseball in 2026 is as difficult as it has ever been.

There are starting pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski, who throws 104 mph fastballs with devastating 93 mph sliders. Just 10 years ago, the average fastball velocity across the league was 93 mph. In his 15 starts this year, Misiorowski has allowed a total of 15 earned runs.

Then there are the relievers. San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller is on a roller coaster ride, allowing just three earned runs in 32 innings. Miller faced 123 batters this season and struck out 63 of them. The average major league slugging percentage is around 40%. Miller is 7%.

There is governance, then there is what Misiorowski and Miller do. Although they are extreme examples, league jumping has continued to outpace hitting. Pitch development has become a science, and the vast amount of data available makes it easier than ever to find the mix of pitches that work best for each player.

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But over the past month or so, offense across baseball has risen dramatically. So how is that possible, given the benefits of pot?

Because baseball has changed. There is a lot.

Eno Sarris of Athletic researched baseball’s drag in the past few weeks, and found it to be the lowest since 2019. Less drag means the ball flies farther, as there is less resistance as it travels through the air. That 2019 season was an offensive showcase, with 10 players hitting 40 or more home runs and 58 hitting 30 or more. The league as a whole hit .252/.323/.425 that year. In 2025, with maximum drag baseball, the league hit .245/.315/.404. That’s a 21-point drop in slugging percentage, for all major league hitters.

Additional research from Sean Zerillo at X found that almost all analytics data grew during this period as well. As he posted, “barrel distance increased by +10.2 ft from April 2026 to present.”

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred opens the MLB Draft at the Coca-Cola Roxy on July 13, 2025. (Brett Davis/Imagn Photos)

It’s easy to wonder if the weather is a factor; Warmer weather usually means the ball flies farther, after all. But that 10.2-foot increase, Zerillo found, “is the largest April-to-June seasonal jump in Statcast.” Instead, the average rise rate related to weather is just 4.6 feet. And the six extra feet of distance dovetail well with the reduced traction on baseballs since early June.

Zerillo also found that the ball traveled 10.4 meters even on controlled fields or games played under a closed roof, eliminating weather as a major factor.

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There is some variation from year to year in baseball itself, even though the league owns and controls the production of the ball in the field. And there are humidors installed in all 30 stadiums. Does that mean Rob Manfred wants to reduce drag? No, it’s not. Manufacturing tolerances can change, and it’s still a very small sample.

But it’s no secret that MLB wants more offense. The legislative changes in 2023 were designed specifically to achieve that goal, such as preventing substitution, and it worked. At least in the beginning. In 2022, the runs per game were 4.28. In 2023, it was 4.62. By 2025, however, it had dropped to 4.45. And since the pitch is constantly improving, maybe the league has made a concerted effort to level the playing field with the slow-drag baseball.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani circles third base after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn., June 22, 2026. (Photos by Jesse Johnson-Imagn)

Yes, purists like to throw duels. But many casual fans are there to see Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge or Juan Soto hit home runs. And the extra six feet of distance from previous years makes that more likely. It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s the difference between a harmless warning fly ball and sitting on the fence.

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Or the difference between a double in the gap and an outfielder holding back to make a play. Whether it will stay that way will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the entire season. Especially in October, when home runs matter most.