Today, we discuss political affiliation, litigation and the passing of the Hail Mary.
There’s a lot going on these days…
Indeed.
In the middle war with Iran, World Cup again President Trump claps his hands (to emphasize greed) name in all visible, I have completely lost track of the struggle for control of the Congress.
Well, now that the California gubernatorial primary is in the background, let’s catch up. The midterm elections are coming up in November, of course. But intense political competition, aimed at swaying the outcome, has been going on since last summer.
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It started in Texas, where Trump-armed Republican lawmakers are redrawing their congressional map in hopes of boosting the GOP’s chances of retaining control of the House. That led to voters in California passing an eye-to-eye measure aimed at boosting Democratic prospects.
Other states have joined the skirmishing, led by Virginia, where voters in April approved new political lines aimed at getting Democrats four more seats.
For the short term, it looks like Trump’s momentum has backfired and the Democrats may come out ahead, at least on paper, by a seat or two.
Then?
Then came the courts.
In a 4-3 decision in May, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down the state’s new federal map, ruling that the Democratic-controlled legislature violated due process requirements when it put the constitutional measure to the vote.
But the most important legal decision came last week, when the US Supreme Court overturned a large part of the Voting Rights Act, freeing several Southern states to immediately return several congressional districts in favor of Republicans.
What is the bottom line?
It looks like the GOP has come out on top, but not by more than a handful of seats, give or take. It is important to note that all cartographic competition does not guarantee success.
“Cartographic competition?”
Those redrawn maps were drawn with the express purpose of helping one party or the other, but party manipulation doesn’t make all those redrawn districts a lock in November.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs law calling for special election to redraw state congressional map
(Godofredo A. Vasquez / Associated Press)
In California, for example, a Central Valley seat held by Republican David Valadao — a perennial Democratic target — remains highly competitive. In Texas, GOP lawmakers have revised their map thinking that the massive Latino support Trump enjoyed in 2024 will transfer to Republican candidates in the midterm elections. That seems less likely, given the changing attitudes of Latinos, meaning at least two of those redrawn Texas seats are more competitive than Republicans would like.
Bottom line, where does that leave things in the fight for control of the House?
There are no guarantees…
… Beyond death and taxes. It is understood.
It still seems very likely that the Democrats will win the House in November.
They just need to get three seats. Going back more than half a century, the exit party (ie the one not in the White House) won an average of more than twenty seats in the House in the midterm elections. So the Democrats have that going for them.
President Trump has started a redistricting war by putting powerful weapons in Texas to redraw its congressional map.
(Alex Brandon/Associated Press)
And, more importantly, Trump’s approval ratings – in a word – stink. There is a strong correlation between a president’s standing in the polls and his party’s performance, as midterm elections are party polls for the White House. Since unhappy voters tend to turn out, that means the outgoing party tends to gain seats.
“It would be one thing if Republicans were trying to make history and they were doing it backed by a popular Republican president,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst who runs the nonpartisan political guide Inside the Election. “But it’s not. . . . [Trump] less popular than any president heading into the midterm elections in a very long time.”
What about controlling the Senate?
The Republican Advantage.
How?
Part of it is straight math. Democrats need to change four seats. There are 35 Senate races up for grabs this fall, but only 10 or so are remotely competitive. Almost all of them are in districts that Trump took.
That said, things are looking up a lot for the Democrats where they have been for the past few months.
Oh?
There is very little correlation between presidential approval and the outcome of Senate races. Still, Trump is laying out strong headwinds that Republicans will have to overcome this fall, including battleground states like Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina. (His gassy rants — “I love inflation,” “Affordability is a tricky business” — don’t help, to put it mildly, when gas and hamburger cost hard-pressed voters an arm and a leg, respectively.)
And Democrats did well as they hoped to pick up candidates in the Republican-leaning states of Alaska, Ohio and Iowa, making those contests more competitive than they otherwise would have been.
What about Maine?
That started out as a top target for Democrats this election cycle. Susan Collins, who has been in office for five terms, is unique in that she is the only Republican senator running in a state that Kamala Harris won. This race is still considered to be an epic race.
But the appointment of Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran with a history that is, um, problematic — a tattoo resembling a Nazi SS insignia that he may or may not have had; sex messages outside of marriage; embarrassing online comments — could make the race more poll-friendly for a Democrat than Trump or Collins.
And in Texas?
You mean the dream bone of Democracy?
It’s been decades since a team won a statewide race in Texas, despite all odds. (The “dream team” of the white/Black/Latino slate; the back-to-back comets of Beto O’Rourke and Wendy Davis, both of whom came out unbeaten.)
Democrats have gone crazy again, this time over 37-year-old state Sen. James Talarico, who has built a national following with his telegenic, Christian-infused platform. Ideally, he is running against a flawed Republican nominee, provincial Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, whose dubious career is littered with scandal, impeachment by the GOP-controlled Texas House and allegations of repeated adultery.
Anyway, it’s Texas. Picking Talarico would be like hooking up on one of those last-second, despondent, alley-oop passes in the end zone. Not impossible.
But don’t bet the farm.
