2026 US Open picks, odds: Expert predictions, field favorites at Shinnecock
The week of festivities at the 2026 US Open is already underway at Shinnecock Hills with practice underway as the tournament rounds quickly approach in Southampton, New York. The same question on Long Island and around the world — aside from whether the New York Knicks can repeat as NBA champions — is on everyone’s lips: Who do you pick to lift the trophy Sunday night?
With a very good field for 156 people With the best PGA Tour, LIV Golf and USGA tournaments to offer, the third major championship of the 2026 season should once again be a great ride from Thursday’s first round on. Shinnecock Hills serving as a tough test should increase tension, especially given the strong winds expected throughout the four rounds.
Although the US Open field is stacked, the overall favorite, Scottie Scheffler, is not playing his best golf. Although he’s still a top-10 player, Scheffler has just one win on the season — none of the PGA Tour’s majors. Rory McIlroy is coming in with a second straight green jacket win, and while his game is on point, his driving has been accurate. And he doesn’t play as many tournaments as usual, so rust can happen.
Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson will miss their third match of the season, facing very different personal circumstances; now it looks like it won’t be playing the four biggest events of the year for the first time in decades.
There are, however, plenty of important names in the field such as Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood who aim to find more success in the tough USGA test.
So, what will happen on Long Island this week? Let’s take a look at the full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to reveal who will win — and what will go down — in the third major contest of the season.
2026 US Open expert selection, predictions
Odds with Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Russell Henley (40-1): Quietly one of the best players in the world and quietly becoming a player in the big leagues, Henley has a chance to use his athleticism at Shinnecock. The recent winner of the Charles Schwab Challenge has a sneaky US Open record and was in trouble on the second nine on Sunday at Augusta National. Henley is deadly accurate off the tee, accurate to the green and has the hands and mettle to handle the conditions of this US Open.
Sleep – Ryan Gerard (125-1): We have a player here who has been in the final round on Sunday in his last two tournaments; in the end, Gerard fell short in the playoff to JT Poston at the Memorial. Playing with new confidence on the green thanks to a small setup tweak, Gerard finds that his overall game is more than enough to compete with the best in the world. He has the mental strength and gumption needed at the US Opens.
Top 10 Locks — Scottie Scheffler: The man with three grand slams in his bag has finished inside the top 25 in his last 32 tournaments. I just want to make sure you see that number: 32! Mark is likely to be a top 10 player for this discussion, and despite the apparent frustration at Muirfield Village, Scheffler is still a complete player and the best in the world. He drives well and has an underrated short game. All eyes are on the career grand slam, and world No. 1 will have a show.
Unbeatable star — Bryson DeChambeau: A little alarmed at the lack of volume, but DeChambeau’s shortcomings in the majors this season have been attributed to sloppy metal playing and sloppy short game play. These two areas are essential to staying afloat in Shinnecock Hills. The constant wind adds another dynamic that the artist formerly known as the Mad Scientist cannot match.
Low amateur — Ethan Fang: The next generation is here. Plenty of options with Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout and the world’s top junior, Miles Russell, but we’re going with Stout’s teammate, Fang. The winner of last summer’s Amateur Championship, Fang, known as “The Vampire,” has an innate ability to putt his ball in the hole no matter the conditions. That helps at the US Open.
Golfers who finish below division — Second: The winner moves in at 2 under to win by one stroke. The USGA learned from the 2004 and 2018 tournaments at Shinnecock Hills; it will set up the golf course to stay playable on the weekend even in high winds. The only concern so far is the wind direction in the practice rounds, which has yet to match what is available.
Big surprise — More conflict! Shinnecock Hills has been the same over the last two US Opens, and let’s not forget Sam Burns’ decision — or lack thereof — in the final round at Oakmont Country Club last season. With the wind, the power to water the greens during rounds and the pressure of the US Open, golf’s big-time debate about something it will break.
The lowest cycle: 66 (-4)
The winning result: 278 (-2)
Sunday’s score of winners: 70 (E)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner — Xander Schauffele (18-1): Did you know that Schauffele’s worst finish in nine US Opens is a T14? That’s an amazing sequence that happens in an event that’s almost impossible to fake when you’re not at your best. Schauffele has been a dominant player (19 top 10s in 36 starts), and while he hasn’t returned to the form that earned him two majors in 2024, he still has 10 straight to start 2026. Shinnecock Hills requires the right mindset and perfect game to get the job done. Schauffele has both.
Sleep — Harris English (80-1): English has a habit of holding his head high on the leaderboard at the majors and has a strong record at the US Open. Shinnecock should fit his game well, as it requires accurate ball striking and excellent placement. Historically, he’s hit the ball, although he’s dipped a bit this year, but I don’t think that skill has left him overnight, and he’s in the midst of an incredible putting season that has him sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained.
Top Ten Locks — Jon Rahm: I’m back to Rahm after Aronimink. That was a really tough course setup, and he played with absolute control of his ball from tee-to-green, which we haven’t seen him do on a major fair play in a long time. His game is in a good place, and most importantly, he believes he is still that guy again after facing real doubts about his place among the world’s best for the first time in his career.
The Unstoppable Star — Scottie Scheffler: It’s not fun to play it safe and point out that DeChambeau doesn’t have a shot in the air. That kicks the man down. I am the one who will say that the tournament favorite will not win. The last time I tried this a bit, I had Scheffler and McIlroy outside the top 10 at the Masters, and they finished 1-2. Alas, I’m not giving up and I don’t think Scheffler’s game is where it needs to be to win the US Open at Shinnecock. The concerns about hitting the ball are real, and with the wind they’ll face this week on greens this bad, he won’t be able to execute his usual risk-averse style enough to complete his grand slam career.
Low amateur — Preston Stout: Koivun and Russell are the frontrunners getting all the hype, but this rookie field is incredibly deep. Stout, the Oklahoma State star, recently beat Koivun to win an individual title at the NCAA tournament. Stout could benefit from the attention of Koivun and Russell by simply playing golf this week without the spotlight, and he could make a name for himself with some low-key rookie honors, given the depth of talent he’s heading to Shinnecock this week.
Golfers who finish under — One: Like last year at Oakmont, the winner will come in at 1 under or maybe 2 under. The wind will be tough on Thursday and Friday, but with light touches on the weekend, the USGA has levers it can pull on the greens to keep scoring where it wants. Someone will be posting red numbers, but the total number of golfers who will be competing at the US Open at Shinnecock will increase to four on Sunday evening.
Big surprise — Three of the top 10 players on the odds sheet miss the cut: That list: Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim and DeChambeau. It’s hard to say which three will make it, but Shinnecock will take over and knock off several pre-tournament favorites before Saturday.
The lowest cycle: 68 (-2)
The winning result: 279 (-1)
Sunday’s score of winners: 70 (E)
Who will win the 2026 US Open, and what long shots will shock the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see the proposed leaderboardall from a model driven by 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.
