2026 US Open odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions with model that hit 17 majors
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, NY, will host the 2026 US Open, which begins on Thursday, June 18. It is the first time the links course has hosted a major, and Brooks Koepka (2018) won the last time the US Open headed to Shinnecock. Koepka is one of twelve past champions in the US Open 2026 field, joining the likes of Wyndham Clark, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.
However, someone who has not yet fallen to this big problem surpasses the 2026 US Open odds in Scottie Scheffler (+550), as he aims to complete the Career Grand Slam. Rory McIlroy (+1200) is next on the PGA odds board this week. Other contenders include Rahm (+1300), Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) and Ludwig Aberg (+2500). Before locking in any US Open 2026 picks, be sure to check out the 2026 US Open predictions and leaderboard projections from the verified computer model at SportsLine.
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Ownership of SportsLine golf betting the model, developed by DFS expert Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. The same model also held 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters – its fifth consecutive Masters – and last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Now that the field for the US Open 2026 is closed, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Go to SportsLine now to see the proposed leaderboard.
US Open 2026 Predictions by Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka
One pick in the US Open 2026 model: Brooks Koepka (+3500), who won the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock and is among the 10 golfers with the shortest odds this year, stumbles a lot and doesn’t even finish in the top 25. Koepka is back on the PGA Tour despite one uneventful season. qualify for signature events. He also struggled both off the tee and on the green as he ran outside the top 100 tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained: putting.
Koepka has won five majors, but that seems like a long time ago based on his recent play. He doesn’t have a single top 10 in his last 12 major tournaments. That includes seven finishes outside the top 40, compared to three finishes inside the top 25. The model doesn’t predict that Koepka will be in contention for another major win this week, making him a safe bet for the US Open.
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The model also locked in its predictions for Scheffler (+550) who, with a victory, would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. His best finish in this major was the runner-up in 2022, as he placed in the top 7 in his last five US Open appearances. Scheffler has also finished in the top 7 in his last six majors but hasn’t been his usual self in 2026.
After at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, Scheffler has one victory this year. Still, he’s been in contention all year as half of his 12 events have resulted in top-three finishes. Scheffler has never played at Shinnecock before, and the last time he played a major, he tied for 14th at this year’s PGA Championship.
The model also assessed McIlroy’s chances (+1200) of becoming a two-time US Open champion, after winning the event 15 years ago in 2011. That was his first major win for an Irishman, while his last miss at the US Open came when Shinnecock was last hosted in 2018. Historically, this has been his least weak and McIlro’s weakest (weakest) of his 5 least (4).
Although McIlroy ranks in the top 5 in SG: value, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, he is just 125th in driving accuracy percentile. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but it’s still challenging because of the 5-inch rough that surrounds it. How McIlroy manages to navigate those fairways with his indirect drives this year will go a long way in determining whether the Masters winner gets his second major win of the year. See the full US Open predictions from the model here.
How to make 2026 US Open picks
The model also targets several longshots, including one that goes over 30-1. You can only see the model selection here.
Who will win the 2026 US Open, which longshots will shock the golf world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the US Open 2026 odds below and visit SportsLine to see the proposed leaderboard, all from the 17-pin golf model, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 US Open odds, favorites
Get full US Open 2026 picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds with FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +550
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Cameron Young +2200
Ludvig Åberg +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +3000
Brooks Koepka +3500
Russell Henley +3500
Collin Morikawa +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Si Woo Kim +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Wyndham Clark +4000
Chris Gotterup +4500
Patrick Cantlay +4500
Patrick Reed +4500
Viktor Hovland +4500
JJ Spaun +5000
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Hideki Matsuyama +6000
Jordan Spieth +6500
Joaquin Niemann +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Aaron Rai +8000
Min Woo Lee +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Jake Knapp +10000
Harris English +10000
Alex Smalley +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
David Puig +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Cameron Smith +10000
Ryan Gerard +10000
Nicolai Højgaard +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Bud Cauley +10000
