GROWTH in commodity prices rose to an 11-month high in April, driven by tensions in the Middle East, analysts said.
Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the general price index (GWPI) at the national level rose to 3.1% year-on-year in April, down from the 4% posted last year.
However, this was faster than the 2.7% GWPI growth recorded in March.
April’s reading was the strongest in nearly a year or since the 3.5% posted in May 2025.
From January to April, GWPI growth reached 2.2%, down from 3.3% in the same period in 2025.
“Higher fuel prices, supply-chain pressures, and the passing of higher import costs may have contributed to the acceleration. Although still below last year’s 4%, the increase indicates renewed cost pressure at the wholesale level,” John Paolo R. Rivera, senior researcher at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, in a Viber statement.
PSA said the acceleration in price growth in April was mainly due to the strong growth of fossil fuels, lubricants and other related materials which was 59.4% from 33.1% in March. The index makes up 3.2% of the entire basket of goods.
“The increase in the prices of mineral fuel, lubricants and related products was due to the limited supply from the war in Iran, which was the most powerful factor that contributed to the increase in the GWPI,” Cid L. Terosa, associate professor of economics at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said in an email.
Mentioning the war again, Mr. Rivera said that the increase in the price of fuel in the world is immediately reflected in the cost of fuel in the country.
The PSA also noted the fastest annual growth in heavy food at 3.9% in April from 3.3% in March.
Meanwhile, slower growth was recorded in beverages and tobacco (2.5% in April from 2.9% in March) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (0.7% from 0.8%).
Chemicals including animal and vegetable fats and oils saw a year-on-year decline of 3% from growth of 1% last month.
Crude, inedible items other than gasoline rose 23.3% in April from a decline of 8.4% in March.
The indices of manufactured goods, divided mainly by materials (0.2%) and machinery and transport equipment (0.9%) maintained their annual growth rates from the previous month in April.
GWPI readings for the major islands group were mixed in April.
Luzon’s GWPI fell to 3% in April from 4.3% last year but rose from 2.6% in March.
This was the fastest growth in nine months or from the 3.1% posted in July 2025.
In the Visayas, the GWPI grew to an almost two-year high of 5.2% year-on-year from 0.7% in April 2025 and 5.1% in March 2026.
It was a fast read since 5.6% was posted in May 2024.
Meanwhile, gross domestic product growth in Mindanao rose to 2.7% in April from 1.1% last year but fell from 2.9% last month.
Mr. Terosa sees GWPI growth to remain at high levels in the first semester of the year.
“The second semester could be a turning point towards a decline in the GWPI or a continuation of the rise in the GWPI, depending on developments in the Iran war,” he added.
Mr. Rivera also expects the GWPI to remain elevated in the coming months if oil prices remain high and supply-side pressures continue.
“But much will depend on the development of global energy markets and the timing of political tensions. Continued price increases could eventually reach consumer prices, making the risk of inflation a key factor moving forward,” he said. – Isa Jane D. Acabal
