Does Nithya Raman still have a chance? California’s uncounted votes could help Democrats

With many races still very tight and millions of votes still to be counted, political experts say the Democrats are likely to hold – or even gain – the edge as the results of the primary are considered.

Republicans appear to have been overpowered in the early vote count, but for a variety of reasons, experts believe the vote will lean heavily toward the Democratic Alliance as the latest mail-in ballots are counted. This can benefit the progressives in close races, but how much remains an open question.

“Don’t count [Councilmember] Nithya Raman is out,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, who closely follows local elections.

Raman is currently in third place behind reality TV host Spencer Pratt and Mayor Karen Bass, who earned a spot in the competition. Raman will have to make significant ground to catch up to Pratt and get a majority of the remaining votes.

“Pratt has the edge … but he’s not free from doubt yet,” Yaroslavsky said.

Rob Stutzman, a longtime GOP strategist, agrees that the remaining vote count will be heavily skewed toward Democrats, but he’s “not sure it’s going to change where we are.”

“I don’t think you’re going to see a big swing,” Stutzman said.

Raman’s chances depend on him hitting Bass heavily in the remaining count — “that doesn’t seem likely,” Stutzman said.

Still, the GOP — long a minority in blue-collar California — had plenty to be proud of on election night. Pratt, a Republican, clearly ran through a part of Los Angeles, dominated by the Democratic Party. And Steve Hilton, a Fox News commentator who supports President Trump, has emerged as the front-runner in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Experts say that both have become dissatisfied with the current state of Democratic politics.

But in recent years, the early momentum from Republicans has waned as the number of ballots has been tallied, especially since Democrats often vote more liberally by mail, a process that skews election results. And this fundamental, push from the Democratic Party for voters to vote later increases the likelihood of turning blue.

Yaroslavsky predicted that the votes would be “democratic, progressive,” especially in Los Angeles County.

“Republicans overworked,” Yaroslavsky said of early vote tallies.

This trend was especially evident in the last primary, when Bass began trailing developer Rick Caruso in the mayoral race, but as more votes came in, Bass continued to lead.

As of Wednesday morning, the highest share — 32% — of counted votes came from registered Republicans statewide, compared to 29% for the 2022 primaries this counting period, according to election tracking firm Political Data Inc. And Democrats have made up a fraction of the early vote count in this head-to-head – 47% so far compared to a 202% drop – including a 522% drop. votes and votes cast in intra-person votes.

The top two vote-getters advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation.

That green turn could affect other statewide contests, experts say, especially in the close race for governor. The three leading pollsters as of Wednesday morning – Hilton and Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer – were all within a few percent, though less than 60% of the expected vote was counted.

Could Hilton – currently with about 28% of the votes counted – face a real challenge from Steyer for second place? It can be difficult, experts say.

“I think he’s comfortable,” Stutzman said of Hilton. Unless the turnout is much higher than expected, he doesn’t see an easy way for Steyer to come back, especially since it would require Steyer to defeat Becerra in a late vote.

Hilton currently leads the race by about 100,000 votes over Becerra, but is about 400,000 votes ahead of Steyer. Voters expect Becerra to make a runoff, given California’s strong blue streak and recent polls.

Ballots in California are accepted up to seven days after the election if they are marked before or on election day, and the official count can take up to 30 days.

Voting by mail (or drop box) has become the favorite method for Californians since mail-in voting was implemented worldwide in 2021: more than 80% of votes already come from absentees, or ballots by mail, according to the California Voter Foundation’s analysis of the last four elections in California. In the 2022 primary it was much higher reaching 91%.

“We need to accept that the first votes counted are not the most representative,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. But that is not a sign that the election is corrupt or fraudulent, he said, even though some politicians are spreading these lies.

“We allow people many different ways to vote, and because of that it takes a long time to count all the votes,” Levinson said. “It should be. … It’s an argument in favor of making sure the system works properly — not quickly.”