Spurs vs. Thunder predictions, odds: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks in Game 5

The Western Conference finals between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder and Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs lived up to the hype. The best-of-7 series is tied 2-2, with each team winning one away game. Now the series goes back to OKC for Game 5 on Tuesday night. Oklahoma City continues to struggle with injuries, as Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable after missing Games 3 and 4, and Ajay Mitchell (calf) is out. San Antonio has no injuries to report.

Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is at 8:30 pm ET. OKC is favored by 3.5 points in Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for the speed’s total points is 217.5. Oklahoma City is -162 on the money line (risking $162 to win $100). Before making any Thunder vs. Spurs, check predictions for Spurs vs. Thunder from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned more than $10,000 per $100 player bet profit on its top NBA picks over eight plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the 2026 NBA playoffs at an impressive 26-10 (72%) among top NBA picks this season. Anyone who follows their NBA betting tips in sportsbooks and betting systems may have seen huge profits.

Now, the model has compared the Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and recently revealed its NBA favorites and betting predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model selection. Here are a few NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Top Thunder vs. Spurs predictions

After 10,000 plays of Spurs vs. Thunder, the SportsLine model is to Less than total (217.5). The Over was beaten in the first three games of the series, but the Under came up big in Game 4, putting up just 185 points on a 219.5 score line. The Under also scored in three of the five regular season head-to-head matches between the teams.

The SportsLine model projects only three Thunder players to score more than 12 points, led by Gilgeous-Alexander’s 25.7 points and Stephon Castle’s 16.7 points. Wembanyama is expected to lead the Spurs with 29.2 points, but two other San Antonio players are expected to score double figures. The Under is hitting 59.3% of the shots, making it a great choice for anyone targeting the NBA parlay betting. See the spread picks for Spurs vs. Thunder on SportsLine, and you can bet Under in Thunder vs. Spurs on FanDuel here:

How to make a Spurs vs. Thunder

After simulating each Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times, the model also says that one side of the distribution hits more than 50% of the time. You can head over to SportsLine to see the NBA’s model selection.

So who wins Thunder vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread reaches more than 50% of the simulation? Visit SportsLine now to see which side Spurs vs. Thunder spread back, all from a model that returned more than $10,000 to the NBA’s top-rated draft pick, and get.