Aaron Judge is in his usual bad form, but history says he’ll show up soon

For the ninth time in their last 13 games, the New York Yankees lost on Thursday (TOR 2, NY 0). It just didn’t happen, captain Aaron Judge went on his worst slump of the season. Judge went 0 for 4 with a hit and a double in Thursday’s loss and is 0 for 11 with eight strikeouts in his last three games. When the team went 4-9, Judge hit .191/.321/.298 with one homer.

“I’m not doing enough at the plate,” Judge said of his slump (via MLB.com). “… I wouldn’t say we’re not seeing the ball well. I think it’s about making sure we’re swinging at the right pitches.”

Judge is having a solid season, slashing .250/.381/.554 with 16 home runs, though he’s been going through it lately and it’s slowing down New York’s offense. The Yankees averaged just 3.15 runs per game during their recent 4-9 stretch. As Judge leaves, the Yankees leave. It’s been that way for the past few years, and, right now, he’s not going away.

“He’s still going through it right now,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said (via MLB.com). “Usually that means good things are coming the other way. He’s a little in the middle, maybe. Fastballs have gotten on him, and he’s been out a little bit in front of some pitches. … Usually any time a hitter goes through it, it’s a little bit timing related. I think that’s all.”

Almost all judge breakdowns look the same. It’s not because his communication quality suffers (very few players hit the ball that hard). It’s because his swing decisions are falling apart. Judge jumps up to the plate and starts chasing the spot, and there are plenty of opportunities to do that because few players in the league see a few pitchers in the strike zone.

Here is Judge’s strikeout rate (O-Swing%) and OPS for the entire season. There is an obvious correlation here. If the Judge is punished, he grinds. When he rushes, his production drops:

There is a mechanical component to this as well. Judge is often quick to open his hips when he is down, putting him in a bad position to hit and see the ball well. That contributes to his plate direction issues as well. A judge is a human being. He falls like every other hitter in the same way as every other hitter. His swing equipment and his approach diverge.

Prior to this 13-game stretch, Judge was having a hot month where he hit .299/.438/.684 with 13 home runs in 33 games. That’s roughly the same as Aaron Judge, who slashed .311/.439/.677 and won three MVPs in three 50-homer seasons from 2022-25. You don’t have to look back to see when Judge was last the best batsman in the world. This decline is unsustainable that long, indeed.

With this talent hitting, the slump could end at any time, which could mean Judge hitting the ball off the scoreboard in his first game on Friday night. Over the past three seasons, Judge has had 13 games with a sub-.620 OPS, often repeating. This decline has never happened to him. It’s just baseball. A typical season is one of ups followed by downs followed by more ups and so on.

Sure enough, the Yankees are moving slowly and Judge is struggling. Those two things are closely related. The Yankees need their captain to right the ship again soon, especially with the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays coming to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series this weekend. That’s New York’s most important series by mid-May standards.

“Anytime you have a hot team coming in, it’s going to make it difficult,” Judge said of the Rays (via MLB.com). “… The offense isn’t too far off. You get a few timely hits, you get a few walks when you need them, and good things are going to happen. You’ve got to get some traffic back there.”