Project major contract extensions for Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs

In the midst of a complete overhaul and rebuild of the first tier of their roster this offseason, the Dolphins made sure at least one cornerstone isn’t going anywhere by agreeing to a four-year, $64 million extension with De’Von Achane last week, according to CBS Sports’ NFL insider Jonathan Jones.

It was a case of “put your money where your mouth is”. The Dolphins had already traded Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) when new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan bluntly stated last month that Achane was not available for a trade. Now, Achane has one big contract in his place.

The electrifying 24-year-old registered 1,838 yards from scrimmage last year, sixth in the NFL. His 5.7 yards per carry and explosive rushing rate of 13.4% were both tops in the league, too. Despite standing just 5-foot-9 and weighing just 191 pounds, Achane played in 16 games last year and recorded a career-high 304 touchdowns, including a team-high 67 catches. Last year, he played in all 17 games and had 281 touches, including 78 catches, showing that he is much more than the position name “running back” suggests.

He is not alone in that position, even in his program. The 2023 class as a whole, like all classes, had some notable baskets and big hits, like Achane, who was a third-round pick. But the crop of running backs has been excellent, with starters Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs rising to stardom, Achane on the road and fifth-rounder Chase Brown coming off his best season.

Achane’s extension brings more focus to what Robinson and Gibbs can fetch this offseason. Because they were first-round picks, they have a fifth-year option on the contract, along with the Falcons and Lions, respectively, exercised those options.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Robinson’s extension should come this offseason. Two stars of Robinson’s caliber in the 2023 draft class — Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) received to set the record straight extensions already, in fact.

Things are more complicated in Gibbs’ situation given the team’s tight finances, ESPN’s Eric Woodyard wrote in February. Gibbs is tied to Detroit for the next two seasons, but a second contract may not come this offseason. After all, the Lions decided against exercise All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell is a fifth-year option due to upcoming realities.

Why Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs will get big extensions

The stats make it easy to see why the Falcons and Lions want to keep Robinson and Gibbs, respectively.

That last line is important. In recent years, NFL defenses have focused on eliminating big plays down the stretch. That makes players who can turn a short profit into a big one even more important. Robinson and Gibbs fit that description to a T. Over the last two years, Robinson has 202 tackles, the most in the NFL. Gibbs is second at 162. Only one other player, Kenneth Walker III (who, not coincidentally, also got a nice payday this offseason), is over 150.

It’s not just volume, either. Gibbs is tied with Achane for the highest rushing yards in the NFL over the past two seasons; Robinson is ninth.

Age is also on their side. Robinson and Gibbs are both 24, and don’t turn 25 until after next season. The NFL is obsessed with all data points, and especially age when it comes to running backs. Some of the highest-paid quarterbacks, such as Barkley, McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, were seniors when they signed their most recent contracts. This offseason, Achane and Breece Hall both received significant extensions where their age was an advantage.

What do Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs extensions look like, and when will they happen?

Robinson seems to have a good chance of getting an extension soon, based on the factors mentioned earlier. Also, Robinson is one of the few Falcons who is clearly eligible for a major extension right now. The Lions not only have Gibbs, but also Campbell, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch to consider extending from their 2023 draft class, and they will need to move some significant money for the future.

Here are the current trends in the reverse market:

It is important to note that it is not clear how Robinson or Gibbs or their representations value different aspects of negotiations, such as timeliness, total amount, annual amount and guaranteed amount.

Robinson can — and probably should — reset all three major divisions. A three-year, $75 million deal with roughly $45 million guaranteed would do just that. In fact, it will remove all three current records from this position. The three-year stretch makes a lot of sense when you consider that Robinson is already tied to his team through 2027 (unlike Achane, who was only tied to Miami through 2026).

If $25 million a year seems like a lot, it’s worth noting that, on an annual basis, that’s exactly what DeVonta Smith makes. Yes, running backs have always lagged well behind wide receivers, but Robinson is much more than a running back, and at his age, he should be a major focus of whatever Atlanta hopes to build over the next half-decade, if not more. Atlanta has a new front office that could make a strong statement early on with a long-term investment in a young star — not unlike Achane, but also on a higher level, financially.

If Robinson signs his extension this offseason, Detroit will be on the clock with Gibbs. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have insisted on rewarding their homegrown talent and backed that up with a number of recent extensions. By Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell, it took place at the beginning of the 2024 season.

But with Alim McNeill, it happened in the 2024 season. With Jameson Williams and Aidan Hutchinson, it happened in the 2025 season — Williams early, Hutchinson midseason.

We can envision a similar time for Gibbs, especially as the Lions navigate dangerous waters. Gibbs tops Robinson in terms of total money and guaranteed money, but on a four-year extension, so the annual money isn’t a record-setting one. An additional year would give Detroit some flexibility in the contract structure.

Project of Bijan Robinson, extension of Jahmyr Gibbs

Robinson:

• Three-year, $75 million extension with $45 guaranteed
• Signed in July 2026
• Sets RB record for total amount, annual average amount, guaranteed income

Gibbs:

• Four-year, $84 million extension with $46 million guaranteed
• Signed September/October 2026
• Sets RB record for most total, guaranteed money