Phillies vs Red Sox betting preview favors Boston through five innings despite Philadelphia’s hot streak

We have an off day in baseball, which means a lot of series wrap up today. There are a few starters, but for the most part, all the regular teams play every Wednesday. That means there are plenty of games to sift through and find great bets to place. I personally like the one I have for today’s game between the Phillies and Red Sox.

The Philadelphia Phillies are already having a wild season, and we’re not even halfway through May yet. They are 20-22, a year after being one of the best teams in baseball. The start of the season gave hope as they re-signed their two key players, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. However, this year has not gone according to plan yet. They fired their manager after a 9-19 start, and since then, the team has responded. Under Don Mattingly, the team is 11-3.

Looking to keep that streak going is tonight’s Phillies starter, Andrew Painter. If you look at his stat line, it gives you a big break in favor of the Philadelphia right-hander. On the year, Painter is 1-4 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. To make matters worse, he has a worse road ERA than home ERA. In three starts, he has allowed 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings. He is coming off his worst start of the season – eight earned runs over 3.2 innings. The Red Sox have never faced Painter, so he may have the edge, but teams are hitting .295 against him for the first time in the lineup.

The Boston Red Sox don’t have much news or attention, but they have had their fair share of news this season. They were only 17-24 on the year, and the expectation was that this team would compete in the AL East. I don’t think that’s impossible, but they need to get their hit soon. They have only 157 runs this season, one of the lowest in the league. They also fired their manager, Alex Cora, but they haven’t seen the change they expected. They are 7-7 since Cora was fired. This one seemed unacceptable to the players.

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Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora returns to the field during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass., on April 7, 2026. (Photos by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe/Getty)

Another guy the team was hoping would provide stability this season is tonight’s starter, Sonny Gray. He was acquired from the Cardinals at the start of the season, and so far has been a steady presence in the clubhouse. He is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has been great at Fenway with a 1.80 ERA. The problem is that he is not very deep in the games. He has reached the sixth inning just twice in six games. Phillies hitters are good against Gray with a .250 batting average overall.

Alec Bohm is a guy you’ll want to look at if you’re looking for a prop player — he’s 6 for 13 against the Grays. Schwarber is 2-for-24 against him with 10 strikeouts so his under-0.5 strikeout rate might be a look (+153), but he’ll likely get an at-bat or two against the Red Sox bullpen. Schwarber in 2+ strikeouts is +126. I’d rather go play Schwarber over Bohm.

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Philadelphia Phillies bench coach Don Mattingly stands in the dugout during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia, on April 26, 2026. (Dale Zanine/Imagn Images)

For the game, I’m taking the Red Sox. I know the line is in favor of the Phillies, so I’m going to slow this down and just play the first five innings. Gray has been good at home, a very reliable starter, and Painter has been terrible. If he’s been wearing overalls badly, he’s been a disaster on the road. I gave Boston five at 135.

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