UFC 329 fight card predictions: Expert picks Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway

Conor McGregor’s comeback is just one day away. The UFC’s biggest star returns to the Octagon to face Max Holloway in a welterweight main event. UFC 329 fight card on Saturday in Las Vegas.

McGregor has been out of action for five years, and last fought in 2021, when he broke his leg in his trilogy match with Dustin Poirier. His return will see him face Holloway, who he defeated at featherweight in 2013 before either man stepped up to a career-defining contest.

The main event has the potential to be the most exciting fight on the card when Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint Denis meet for the heavyweight title. Pimblett is coming off a January interim lightweight championship loss to Justin Gaethje, while Saint Denis has been hot and enters Saturday on a four-fight winning streak.

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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest powerhouses before we get our staff predictions and some festive PPV picks to consider before hitting the sports books.

UFC 329 fight card, odds

Odds with DraftKings Sportsbook (Odds as of July 9)

• Max Holloway -225 vs. Conor McGregor +185, welterweights
• Benoit Saint Denis -155 vs. Paddy Pimblett +130, lightweights
• Cory Sandhagen -135 vs. Mario Bautista +114, bantamweights
• Lone’er Kavanagh -218 vs. Brandon Royval +180, flyweights
• Terrance McKinney -135 vs. King Green +114, lightweights
• Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Nikita Krylov +114, light heavyweights
• Gable Steveson -2800 vs. Elisha Ellison +1300, heavyweights
• Adrian Yanez -425 vs. Cody Garbrandt +330, bantamweights
• Luke Riley -265 vs. Kai Kamaka III +215, featherweights
• Wang Cong -110 vs. Tracy Cortez -110, women’s flyweights
• Damian Pinas -258 vs. Cesar Almeida +210, middleweights
• Farid Basharat -600 vs. John Garza +440, bantamweights
• Ryan Gandra -130 vs. Zachary Reese +110, middleweights
• Alessandro Cortez -245 vs. Cody Durden +200, flyweights

UFC 329 predictions, picks

With such a big event on tap, the CBS Sports staff went ahead with predictions and main card picks for Brian Campbell, Brent Brookhouse, Shakiel Mahjouri, Michael Mormile and Brandon Wise.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway predictions

Campbell: Five years removed from his last fight and a few days from his 38th birthday, McGregor has a lot of questions to answer in this answer. That doesn’t even take into account the lingering concerns about how the broken left leg in his 2021 trilogy defeat Dustin Poirier will answer. At 34, Holloway is very close to his glory days following victories in recent years over Dustin Poirier and current lightweight king Justin Gaethje. And the longer this fight goes as Holloway pushes the pace with his high-volume offense, the more likely it will be a McGregor cardio-based implosion.

Brookhouse: McGregor will be a threat early on, he is strong and can strike. That said, as long as Holloway uses caution in the opening frame, he should be able to keep fighting as the fight progresses. McGregor’s cardio is an issue, and it is thought that Holloway will still have something resembling his normal cardio in his first welterweight fight. Holloway just puts a lot of pressure on me to hope that McGregor can keep going. I don’t know if Holloway will be strong at 170, but he should win this fight.

Mahjouri: There are unusual dynamics at play here. McGregor returns five years ago. Holloway swells to 170 pounds for the first time. All in all, the odds are in Holloway’s favor. “Blessed” has the work, power and volume to tear apart many players in 25 minutes. McGregor’s best chance is to harass Holloway with a shot at a first or second round finish. The fight will always elude McGregor. Expect Holloway to wrap up a tired McGregor within 15 minutes.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis predictions

Campbell: Pimblett deserves credit for accepting such a dangerous fight against Saint Denis, who is just six months into his interim lightweight title fight with Justin Gaethje. At 31, Pimblett is doubling down on his quest to stay fit for the perfect picture. But nothing comes easy compared to this version of BSD, who knows how to hold his own and has just picked up four straight wins against some very tough competition. Pimblett will be competitive and last long enough not to finish but Saint Denis has big weapons in this fight and should concede when the 15 minutes of the fight are over.

Brookhouse: Saint Denis is running incredibly fast, but he meets someone at Pimblett who has proven to be incredibly strong, and that could be a problem for Saint Denis, whose fuel tank is a little unreliable. This is a really big fight and a big risk for Pimblett, who was beaten by Gaethje in January. My expectation is for Saint Denis to dominate the opening round, but Pimblett’s ability to get punishment as he keeps coming is starting to get the better of Saint Denis. I like Pimblett’s chances to win a narrow decision.

Mahjouri: The co-main event is a great matchup, featuring two rising lightweight stars. Both men have knockout and submission skills, as well as defensive passes that make for exciting fights. Saint Denis’ laziness and Pimblett’s defensive laziness could cause both men trouble. Saint Denis improved significantly in training with middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov, while Ilia Topuria’s loss to lightweight champion Justin Gaethje forces us to re-examine Pimblett’s defeat in the cart. Pimblett has a great chin, which gives me enough faith that he can outthink and outwit his powerful opponent.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista predictions

Campbell: This is an evenly matched fight featuring two of the top five bantamweights in the world and it should be contested at a very high pace. At 34, Sandhagen will still have plenty of motivation to keep up with the title picture just nine months removed from a walk-off loss to then-champion Merab Dvalishvili. And Bautista has won nine of his last 10 and has been competitive since his loss last October to Umar Nurmagomedov. But Sandhagen’s ground game should be able to cancel out the grappling power and submission threat of Bautista. And on the feet, Sandhagen still has plenty of different looks and a variety of impressive attacks to keep Bautista chasing. Look for Sandhagen to engage in close combat.

Who wins McGregor vs. Holloway, and how does the war actually end? Visit SportsLine now for detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who has raised over $21,000 on his UFC picks since May 2018, and find out.