After a tough series in Tampa, Arizona comes home to hopefully face the fiery Giants again.
To say that Arizona had a rough patch while in Tampa is putting it mildly. After a bad road trip, Arizona limps back home with a record one game below .500. They remain third in the NL West, but that doesn’t speak to their postseason aspirations, as even the Padres (the second-place team) are now 10.5 games out of first as the Dodgers finally put some sunshine between them and the division as many expected. No, their path to October baseball is through the Wild Card, and they are three games back in that race, trying to take down the St. Louis Cardinals. Louis when they faced four teams between them and the Red Birds of Missouri.
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This series will force Mike Hazen and his advisors to make some tough decisions. Continuing to kick the can down the road is no longer an option. The fallout from those upcoming decisions could go a long way in determining Mike Hazen’s strategy at the trade deadline. If Arizona wants to have a realistic chance of winning playoff baseball this year, they must leave this series at .500 or higher. They also need to get to a point where they don’t lose any more players to injury.
Game 1
Tyler MahleRHP, 1-7, 5.49 ERA, 61 SO
vs.
Eduardo RodriguezLHP, 6-2, 2.27 ERA, 70 SO
Eduardo Rodriguez was the striker they thought they would sign back in 2024. In fact, he has been Arizona’s best hitter this season. Without his return to form, Arizona would likely have already shared a spot with the Colorado Rockies in the standings. On the other hand, Mahle has time to forget. Mahle’s losing record does not indicate that he has started 12 games as much as one would like. In fact, it makes him look better than he was. Sporting an ERA+ of 72, Mahle has never struggled this hard in his professional career. The 31-year-old is now in the process of choosing his place on the 26-man roster. This would be a great game for the Diamondbacks to make a statement, as the lefty hitters put a dagger in the Giants’ heart from the get-go. The faster they take Mahle out of the game, the faster they can burn the bullpen. Of course, that will mean that Arizona will have to start doing better with RISP and walks, as Mahle still averages more than five innings per outing, despite his struggles.
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Game 2
Landen RouppRHP, 5-7, 4.07 ERA, 95 SO
vs.
TBD
Despite the more pedestrian results, according to the league average, Roupp is averaging just over six innings per start. This ability to get into late games is another reason why Arizona did its best to get into the bullpen early in the first game against Mahle. Roupp is 0-2 in his last five games. In two misses, he was blown up. In these three no decisions, he has held the opposition to two runs or less. Roupp does a good job of limiting free passes, so Arizona will need to be patient. Attacking early plays into Roupp’s ability to run deep. Making him active increases the chances that Arizona will find a crack to exploit. It will continue to put pressure on the San Francisco bullpen.
To counter, Arizona will turn to an ageless wonder, TBD. In this respect, TBP looks a lot like Brandon Pfaadt. Jose Barera is still on the move. Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake are not eligible to return to the 26-man roster unless another injury move is made. Brandon Pfaadt did not pitch during the Tampa series. How long Pfaadt is allowed to go (assuming he is) remains to be seen, as he threw 50 pitches for a while there in Reno. Either Arizona throws a bullpen game, or uses Pfaadt as an opener before going to the bullpen. There are a lot of moving pieces involved here and speculation abounds as Arizona (at least for now) plays this decision close to their chest.
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Game 3
Trevor McDonaldRHP, 2-6, 4.94 ERA, 45 SO
vs.
Zac GallenRHP, 3-7, 6.15 ERA, 52 SO
Trevor McDonald, like Drew Rasmussen recently, gets frustrated with the free pass. He’s not much of a hitter, but he doesn’t give up at bats. If he hits his spots, it makes him a 2023 Merrill Kelly threat. When she misses her spots, she looks like a modern-day Merrill Kelly. There’s a reason McDonald sports an 80 ERA+. Arizona needs to hide McDonald and put their foot on the gas. If they can get to him early, Zac Gallen might be useless. On that note, the Diamondbacks will be sending struggling Zac Gallen to the mound. In his last outing, he was more than adequate against the Rays. He gave up a bad first inning before settling down and going the next five, hitless. If that version of Gallen shows up, Arizona should be in a good spot for this game. If Zac Gallen, one of the many outings this season, shows up, this game could be ugly for both teams.
Players to Watch
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At this point, there really isn’t a main player to watch. The questions far outnumber the answers right now. Players who struggle if they continue to struggle will continue to burden the team. On the other hand, if Zac Gallen improves on his last outing and if the team can salvage the second game of the series, this team continues to keep playoff discussions alive. The Giants are having a bad season and find themselves in the same spot as Arizona, who need to start looking at other options for the upcoming seasons.
An exception to this may be Max Kepler. How long will the newly restored Kepler be given to make an impact. Even at his peak, he was basically an older version of Pavin Smith, who is already causing problems for Arizona. Kepler only has five plate observations so far, so it’s obviously early days. But it’s hard to imagine that his streak is too long. Look for them to do something soon or be sent to the DFA reject pile.
The conclusion
This series gives Arizona a great opportunity to cleanse the palette. They began to leave the AL East leading Rays in the rear view. They came to sleep in their beds. They will face one of the worst teams in the game right now. If Arizona takes two of three, they’re out of the series at .500. If they can dig deep and find their mojo in game two, they have a very good chance to sweep the series, bringing them back to within two games as they prepare to host the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. It will be important for Arizona to get out of this series on a high note as their next three series are against the Brewers in Phoenix and then the Padres and Dodgers, both in California.
