Brexit, 10 years later: What a sorry British city can teach Canada about referendums

The booming reggae music emanating from the stalls in Wakefield’s central market in Yorkshire masks the unease at the lack of economic fortunes in this part of the United Kingdom.

Ten years after the people of this northern English community voted to leave the European Union, happiness is hard to find, offering a stark warning to battlegrounds as far away as Alberta.

On June 23, 2016, nationally a bare majority of 51.9 percent voted for Brexit, while 48.1 percent wanted to stay in the EU. In Wakefield, and in many other northern English communities, the results were devastating – almost two-thirds of voters in the town chose “leave.”

But talking to some of them now, what many “leftists” hailed at the time as a democratic revolution has instead turned into buyer’s remorse.

“The British people, I believe, voted for Brexit to control our borders, to control immigration, and it didn’t happen,” said pensioner John Welsby.

Since 2016, immigration to the UK has completely changed.

Pre-Brexit, EU migration was dominant. Now, non-EU arrivals, mainly from Asia and Africa, make up the majority of new arrivals in Britain, while immigration levels are roughly the same.

“They are there [immigrants] to come and use what we built,” said Welsby, “and we still have to pay to maintain it.”

In fact, studies of immigration patterns have repeatedly concluded that immigrants from the EU have a positive financial impact on all UK immigrants.

Disappointing results

If, “leavers” like Welsby, Brexit has failed to fulfill its promise of increased sovereignty and border controls to limit immigration, for those who voted “remain,” the task of exiting the Great Britain trade market has produced predictably disappointing results.

“Everything is more expensive, the food is on another level,” said Donna Shaw, who did not vote at all. She sells artificial flowers in one of the market stalls.

“Definitely there is regret for leaving, absolutely. A lot of people, especially my father, and all his friends, like, in their 60s and 70s, they all thought we were going to take back his country.

“There was no difference at all.”

Scarlett Wright, who was 10 years old when Brexit was voted, said he thinks the impact of the Brexit decision goes beyond economics and immigration.

“Things have slowed down because of Brexit. A lot of crime has gone up recently; we’ve had a lot of drugs and everything going on at the moment, and prices have definitely gone up,” he said.

‘Broken Britain’

While the slogan “Broken Britain” predated the 2016 vote, in recent years it has become a widely used term to describe the decline seen in the UK since leaving the EU.

Political scientist Tim Bale says the chaos caused by Brexit has disrupted the political structure of the country.

“With Brexit we have seen a split in public opinion, which has meant that voters, as well as being more fickle and less loyal to political parties, are looking for radical solutions,” said Bale, a professor at Queen Mary University of London.

Those radical solutions include increasing support for non-traditional groups such as the Greens on the left or Reform UK and Take Britain Back on the far right.

Reform UK was a big winner in May’s local elections, winning seats in local councils across the country while the ruling Labor Party lost heavily.

When Keir Starmer resigned as Britain’s prime minister on Monday and set in motion the events that would lead the nation to its sixth leader in seven years, coming within 10 days of the Brexit referendum, the timing was hard to ignore.

Such political instability has left deep scars on the British economy. Bank of England data suggests that the UK economy is around six per cent smaller than it would be if it stayed within the EU.

While some sectors such as London’s technology and finance areas have been able to stand up, fields that rely on low-cost labour, particularly agriculture and transport, have faced severe labor shortages. This is a plus Supply chain challenges for food products from the EU, have contributed to higher prices for consumers.

“I really noticed it; as a cheese it was about £2.50 [$4.69 Cad]but now it has risen to about £5 or £6 [$11.26 Cad],” Wright said, gesturing to the market stalls.

Unfulfilled promises

Meanwhile, the infamous campaign promising that leaving the EU would free up hundreds of millions of pounds a week for the National Health Service has fizzled out.

“What I can’t say has happened is the influx of more money,” said Dr. Linda Harris is the community health officer for her organisation, Spectrum Community Health, which works in areas around Wakefield. Instead of investing in preventive care, he says his teams are spending their time “putting out the fires” of deep health inequities.

It is precisely this web of unintended consequences and broken promises that experts say should serve as Canada’s red light.

As Alberta flirts with its independence ambitions, navigates high-profile debates about exiting the Canada Pension Plan and seeking separate constitutional status, British research offers a sobering mirror.

Albertan Ian Cooper, who has spent years studying the effects of divorce at Dublin City University’s Brexit Institute, warns that polls are often a trap.

Toxic polarization

“The survey is like Pandora’s box,” Cooper said. “It could cause divisiveness, big divisions, and a really toxic political environment. I don’t think the people of Alberta have a good idea of ​​what’s coming. I think it could be really bad.”

Cooper says voters can believe a “Yes” vote is merely a peaceful negotiating ploy to force a civilized constitutional debate when – as the UK found out – it can instead draw endless battle lines that can paralyze society.

Anand Menon of King’s College London has been studying Britain’s role in Europe as the UK’s director in the changing European system.

“Brexit is about trade,” he told CBC News. “When you get something, you give something in return.”

“There’s a menu with all kinds of options on it. The sad truth is that everything on that menu is going to make us sick in some way. Because it’s going to compromise political independence or it’s going to involve economic costs.”

Many who pushed for Brexit believed that a closer relationship with the United States could make up for the lost relationship with Europe – but Menon says that Donald Trump’s values ​​and his approach against friendly partners have shown the weakness of that strategy.

“The world has changed in very profound ways since 2016 and in ways that are not really helpful to the Brexit cause,” he said.

All this with a growing number of Britons wondering if a second Brexit referendum might not be far off.

The latest Yougov poll conducted on the eve of the 10-year anniversary shows that 55 percent of Britons are about to vote to join the European Union, with only 34 percent against.

But whether Britain ever gets a constitutional do-over could depend on who succeeds Starmer. The prime minister had issued a firm decision not to re-enter the EU, preferring to repair the relationship through minor agreements.

Now, the front man who is ready to replace him is Andy Burnham.

The popular former mayor of Greater Manchester has just won a by-election to enter Parliament, putting himself in a position to take the top job. Burnham has historically said he wants to see Britain return to the EU “in his lifetime” – although political realities mean he, too, is expected to focus first on strengthening economic ties rather than presenting a formal bid to rejoin.

The desire for a complete Brexit reform remains a volatile battleground.

While parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party are clearly fighting for a return to the single market, the Conservative Party and the Populist Reform UK party, led by one of Britain’s biggest extremists Nigel Farage, remain fiercely opposed.

At Wakefield Market, Gary Foreman, who recently opened Sweet Tooth Bakery to sell cakes and pastries, remains on high alert.

“We’re not getting exactly what we were promised,” Foreman said, looking out over the town square. However, as the business owner feels the pressure of the economy, he is worried about the big dispute that will be issued for the second vote.

“If we get another vote, I think it will be touch and go,” he said.

It’s that pervasive fatigue — a decade spent arguing over a single ballot question without a happy consensus — that serves as a warning to Canada.

Rejoining a union is more difficult than leaving.