2026 US Open trends, odds: An even-handed winner at Shinnecock Hills again?
The US Open every year is the most difficult test in golf as it is, but this week’s 126th stage of the American national championship is played in arguably the most difficult of the circuit: Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, NY Therefore, do not be surprised to see zero players under Sunday evening, although that is a list of different betting games.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, established in 1891, is a links-style track with sand, fairways and a few trees that plays 70 for 7,440 yards. This will mark the sixth US Open hosted by Shinnecock, making it the sixth course in history to do so.
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Only twice has a US Open winner finished under par: Raymond Floyd at 1 under in 1986 and Retief Goosen at 4 under in 2004. When it was last hosted in 2018, American Brooks Koepka repeated as champion – the last player to do so at the majors – by finishing at 1 over. Koepka is +3200 this week after withdrawing Sunday from the Canadian Open with an injury. He says it’s okay to put it together in New York.
That 2018 tournament is the last major tournament where no golfer finished under par, and the winning Over/Under score this week on DraftKings is 278.5, with an Under favorite of -148. Needless to say, someone would have to finish with a score no worse than 279 to finish under the category.
But only three golfers in 659 combined US Open starts at Shinnecock have finished under par — a paltry 29 guys who have finished better than +5 — and those were Floyd in ’86, Goosen and runner-up Phil Mickelson in 2004. In the last eight years here, the average score reached +2005 highest in the US Open and was the highest in the US Open in the US Open +2065. 40 years ago. The 1986 event is fourth on that list at +4.67.
The course record at Shinnecock is 63, by England’s Tommy Fleetwood in the final round in 2018, who shot him to finish second. Tied for lowest final round score in tournament history with Johnny Miller in 1973 … and Fleetwood again in 2023 when he finished T-5. He is +2300 to win the first major title on Sunday. That anyone breaks the course record this week is +1200, and that we get a first time winner at +115 and No at -142.
Fleetwood is among 36 players in this year’s field who played in the 2018 event; the two biggest names that missed the cut that year were Rory McIlroy (+930 second favorite this week) and Jon Rahm (+1175 third favorite). Both are looking for a second US Open title, and one would think Europeans like them would have the edge on the links-style course. But that European wins this week is +168 compared to the American -142 – USA guys have won the last three US Opens but no majors in 2026.
Amazingly, there hasn’t been a playoff since Tiger Woods lost 19 holes Monday or Rocco Mediate in 2008 across the country at Torrey Pines. That format was changed years later, and the playoff is now a combination of two holes. That there is a playoff this year is +410. I think I’ll throw something in there, since it’s late. That there is no one -575.
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I mentioned Mickelson above, and he is one of three players with a US Open title shy of a career Grand Slam and the current world No. Mickelson will miss the event for the second year in a row for personal reasons, and he is 56, so he may not win the US Open title.
Scheffler’s 30th birthday is Sunday, so how fitting would it be to complete the Slam? He will join Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan and Tiger Woods as the fourth to do so on the first try. Scheffler did not play in the 2018 event at Shinnecock but has been T-7 or better in his past five US Opens. He is 180 to finish in the top 10 this week. Scheffler will tee off at 8:14 a.m. ET Thursday with reigning US Open champion JJ Spaun and 2025 US Amateur winner Mason Howell.
BetMGM is heavily exposed to Scheffler to win as it ranks first in tickets (14.1%) and holds (24.7%) so far, better than any other player in both.
“Scheffler has been getting a lot of love from the bettors, especially at a much more attractive price than we’ve seen in the first two majors of 2026,” Matt Wall, BetMGM Chief Trader, wrote on social media. “Following the recent success of Rory McIlroy and Aaron Rai, our customers are jumping on the European bandwagon — Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are both seeing strong support.”
For the win, I’d take the American but lean on Xander Schauffele (+1900) as he’s finished in the top 14 in each of his nine US Open appearances and was T-6 in 2018. He is the first golfer to finish in the top 15 in his first nine appearances at the event since Bobby10 Jones-312 from 312.
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No player has won back-to-back majors on Tour since 2015, and surprise PGA Championship winner Rai of England is +11000 this week. His best US Open finish was a T-19 two years ago at Pinehurst.
We will see history on Thursday when Aussie Adam Scott starts from scratch as he makes his 100th consecutive championship start. Only Jack Nicklaus with 146 has reached three consecutive numbers. Scott’s only win during that time was the 2013 Masters, and +7400 to win the Open. Scott was T-2 through 54 holes last year but finished T-12 after getting blown out in the final round.
It will be windy at times this weekend on Long Island, but the rain shouldn’t be too much except maybe on Thursday.
