UFC White House predictions: The best bets and odds for each fight in Washington DC

The world will focus on the UFC Octagon on Sunday there UFC Freedom 250 takes place on the South Lawn of the White House. The event is controversial, interesting, and above all, unique.

Two title fights headline the card, with lightweight champion Ilia Topuria facing interim champion Justin Gaethje in the main event, and two-division champion Alex Pereira facing Cyril Gane for the vacant interim heavyweight title.

Elsewhere on Saturday, fast-rising heavyweight star Josh Hokit looks to take the next step towards a title shot against legendary veteran Derrick Lewis. Hokit announced himself on the field in just three UFC fights and was finally considered an all-time champion against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327 in Miami. Now, he must get past the all-time playoff leader if he wants to continue the fight that could have the winner of Saturday’s main event.

With so many notable names on the card, combined with such a unique venue and set of circumstances, there will undoubtedly be more than usual interest in the event, including in sportsbooks. With that in mind, we’ve also taken a look at all of the event’s main card fights to identify our best bets for each one, and in a rare moment, every fight in the event is a main card fight.

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After going 3-2 with our best bet for UFC 328, we sit just under .500 for the 12-13 year. We now look ahead to this weekend with a goal of getting back into the black, with our only remaining rule being that all bets must be odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s draft picks with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

Steve Garcia’s Money Line (+124)

Lopes has shown a good chin against other guys with decent power, like Alexander Volkanovski and Jean Silva, but the thing about talking about a fighter showing a good chin is that it usually means the fighter is getting beat up regularly. That’s a factor in this fight, with Lopes landing twice as many punches per minute as Garcia. That’s possible in part because Lopes is fighting better fighters than Garcia. Still, with Garcia hitting like a truck and Lopes leaving huge holes in his defense, Garcia could use the opportunity to get a little upset in a very well-matched fight.

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Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

Strive to go the distance: Yes (+175)

Nickal’s striking has gotten better all the time, but it’s still not a fully developed part of his overall game. Nickal’s grappling will be an advantage against anyone he’s ever fought, but Daukaus has a quick ground game. Those two things add up to a fight that Nickal should win, but one where he probably won’t get a stoppage despite the odds leaning heavily into a fight that doesn’t go the distance.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler

Less than 1.5 cycles (-130)

Luffy’s knockout win line is -225, which isn’t as attractive as just taking the under. Benoit Saint-Denis has shown that Luffy can have some weaknesses in his grappling game, so Chandler should look to use his wrestling more than brawling, but Chandler is now 40 years old and has done a lot of damage to his career. Luffy is an explosive and powerful striker who should be able to melt Chandler down if he connects with a few clean shots. Chandler has never had a good defense and always fights face to face, a style that should leave him open for those Luffy strikes to connect. Unless Chandler wants to be taken down from the jump, this fight ends before the halfway point.

Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis

Josh Hokit by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)

Lewis is always alive in any fight because he has unbelievable one punch power. It’s possible that Lewis catches Hokit with a big shot early and ends the fight, but the fight likely plays into Hokit’s speed which allows him to blast Lewis with the gun while Lewis looks for the incoming bomb. I’m concerned about how many hits Hokit was hit by Curtis Blaydes, but just taking the fight to end with a -300 hit, so our play is probably the result of Hokit stopping Lewis’ aging form with strikes.

Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Fight to finish by decision (-160)

This fight has everything to be a tough, surprising fight. Both fighters have strong defenses, and there are no stats to look for a takedown (both fighters scored points in one fight in their respective careers). Zahabi has a style that often avoids an opponent’s big blows, while O’Malley has never looked like he’s interested in showing the kind of explosiveness he produced early in his UFC career. All of that sounds like a recipe for a fight that turns to a decision without much chance of a stoppage. O’Malley should get the win, but there’s an outside chance that Zahabi can close out the decision, so taking a win at a solid price of -160 sounds like the right call.

Cyril Gane vs. Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira’s Money Line (-108)

Pereira has the body of a legitimate heavyweight in this fight, so it is unlikely that Gane will rub him and randomly try to be a fighter (don’t forget that Gane was badly beaten by Francis Ngannou). Gane is so consistently underperforming against the best fights he faces that I don’t trust him this time around. The one time Gane fought to his full potential against an elite fighter he turned in almost one good round against Tom Aspinall before blinding the champion with a double eye poke. Pereira has a much better game, and I have a lot of faith in him to do on a bigger surface than Gane.

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

Fight to start round 2: Yes (-185)

As much as I’d like to say I pulled the trigger on Gaethje as an underdog, I can’t. There are many strange things in this battle, such as Topuria coming back when she was out of the game during a bad divorce, strong storms that can be strong, heat and humidity, unique environment, bugs and more. Most of those factors are true of all the other fights on the card, of course, but I mention them for this fight in particular because there is so much certainty in an easy win for Topuria that I like. Yes, Topuria is much better than Paddy Pimblett, who was upset by Gaethje to win the interim title, but Gaethje is still tough as nails and if Topuria is not careful, Gaethje’s punches can turn the fight on its head quickly. But, all those unique features that I have listed make it difficult for this battle not to end up beating quickly. What if a line like 185 that the fight just out of the first round offers a parlay booster. If you’re a firm believer in betting like Pereira -108, adding to this fight a second-round knockout gives you a two-fight parlay at +196. Or, you can take a shot at Gaethje at +380 and solidify your night.

Who wins UFC White House: Topuria vs. Gaethje, and how does the war actually end? Visit SportsLine now for detailed picks and analysis from an unparalleled expert with over $1,500 in cash on his UFC main card picks, and find out.