UFC Fight Night predictions, odds, Bellal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Bellal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim meet in a welterweight bout. Muhammad, the former champion of the division, looks set to return to the title race as Bonfim tries to overtake his position in the title hunt. It all goes down at Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday to headline UFC Fight Night.

Muhammad (24-5, 1 NC) finds himself in unfamiliar territory. In 2024, he became the welterweight champion and extended one of the longest winning streaks in the division. A year later, he lost the title and lost back-to-back for the first time.

A recurring theme of UFC Fight Nights in the Paramount+ era is established veterans versus potential stars. The trend started with Mario Bautista defending Vinicius Oliveira, and now you see Muhammad (No. 5) in the battle Bonfim (No 11). Muhammad doesn’t see this week’s main event through the same lens. Brimming with confidence, Muhammad believes that the real victim here is his opponent.

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“I don’t think it’s my cost. It’s Bonfim’s cost,” Muhammad told CBS Sports. “I’m a boy who doesn’t deserve to fight. I’m happy to show the world that I’m still the best. I’m still at the top. I have to go out and show him.”

“I think I have the best cardio in the division. For me, it’s about getting out there and letting loose. If I let loose, I can go all day.”

Bonfim (19-1) has a chance to become the next welterweight, pushing the old guard. Muhammad is the last string in the top five of welterweight taken by relatively new blood. Bonfim, the younger brother of UFC fighter Ismael Bonfim and head coach Odair Bonfimhe is not concerned with Muhammad’s five-round experience. Bonfim insists that he will not end up matching Muhammad’s pressure, but push the pace despite entering his first major event.

“Belal disrupts the other fighters’ rhythm,” Bonfim said through a Portuguese interpreter. “Kicks, moves and my quick jabs are what matters. If he decides to take me down I can take him down. I’ll stand up if necessary. I’ll pressure him all the time.”

This week’s Fight Night has a lot of interesting A-sides. Brendan Allen is putting himself at risk for his No. 1 spot. 4 middleweight against unranked opponent Edmen Shahbazyan. Fares Ziam is a major player in the lightweight division, Bryce Mitchell continues to rehab and Iwo Barankiewski is looking for his fourth straight first-round exit in less than a year.

Let’s take a look at another fight card with the latest from DraftKings before getting the expert’s prediction and picks for the big event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: June 6 | Start time: 8pm (Main Card) | 5pm (First Card)
Location: Meta APEX – Las Vegas
Broadcast: Paramount+ (sign up now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Bellal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Bonfim’s resume buries the lede. Most of the submissions on his record aren’t his best weapons, at least not at the UFC level. His kicking game. Bonfim is a fast athlete with a kick. He took out slugging pitcher Randy Brown with a knee, but Bonfim’s calf kick hurt more. Regular self-sitting is important in preventing movement and stress in Muhammad. He’s more dangerous than Muhammad at range and has a submission game, too. The rising contender has the advantage in several key categories: KO power, submissions, athleticism and youth. I’m still dating. Muhammad wrestling pressure is not real. He has a little finishing ability, but it’s almost impossible to put aside. Muhammad clings to you like glue, bringing you down with his endless works of debasement. His impeccable presentation supports this move. This style will only get better training from UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov.

There are two concerns about Bonfim that I can’t ignore: his intensity and deviation from what works. Bonfim suffered a lone loss to Nicolas Dalby, an imperfect veteran who can beat world-class fighters on his best day. Dalby struggled in Round 1 before putting pressure on Bonfim in Round 2 to earn a TKO. Bonfim has clearly worked on his endurance, and Muhammad can’t hit like Dalby, but I’m worried about fatigue in the five rounder. Against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, Bonfim showed a lot of respect for the veteran. The split decision battle was closer than it should have been. Fighting the former champion in a five-round format — the first two for Bonfim — could see him stray too far from his preferred style if he can’t finish early. Elect: Muhammad by unanimous decision