As Victor Wembanyama waits to hear the identity of his eventual NBA team ahead of the 2023 draft, Adrian Wojnarowski shared a sense of dread among teams hoping to land the biggest prospect in basketball history during ESPN’s lottery broadcast.
“A number of managers here tonight, waiting for bounce balls in the lottery, told me they believe Wembanyama could be the best player in the NBA both offensively and defensively in his third season in the league,” said Wojnarowski.
That doesn’t happen, at least not under today’s conditions. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was MVP and champion in his second NBA season, but played a full-time collegiate career. Magic Johnson won the Finals MVP as a rookie, but Abdul-Jabbar was by his side in all but the Finals and will remain the dominant player for several years. LeBron James reached the NBA Finals in his fourth season, but was defeated by an experienced team in the San Antonio Spurs and did not return until his eighth season.
These words were spoken in Wembanyama a few months after his 19th birthday. He had no NBA experience. He did not come through the traditional American college system. He was very successful in Europe, winning the French MVP award in 2023, but he did not play in the EuroLeague. Luka Dončić won the EuroLeague MVP award with 19 points. Wembanyama averaged 6.5 points in 17.5 minutes against Europe’s best competition. It didn’t matter. His future was obvious to anyone who had ever bounced a football. He was going to be the best basketball player in the world. If life allows, he could be the best basketball player who ever lived.
Usually we don’t start through those discussions. Michael Jordan didn’t really throw his name in the “GOAT” ring until his first three-peat. James has been compared to him since he arrived in the NBA, but he says his 2016 championship over the 73-win Golden State Warriors was the moment, in his mind, when it really happened. That happened in his 13th season.
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But Wojnarowski’s prophecy came true. It’s Wembanyama’s third season, and he’s already called himself “the best in the league”. He and the Spurs just knocked off two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals on the road in Game 7 on Saturday night. Gilgeous-Alexander has been struggling with injuries to his secondary creators, Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams, but Wembanyama, playing with his two best teammates, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, has also jumped.
During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 5.4 shot attempts in the restricted area per game. In the first six games of the Western Conference Finals, that number was nearly cut in half, down to three. Outside the line, the MVP was dying. He shot 32.1% in the open paint, 38.3% from mid-range and 26.1% from 3. While he did not make mistakes, he did not have an effective way to attack the team led by San Antonio Wembanyama. This Black competition, he turned him off.
It usually takes a few tries to reach this point. Jordan lost to the Bad Boy Pistons three times. James lost twice to the Boston Celtics and was pushed to the brink against them in 2012. There is a certain rhythm to these things. A young star rises, loses a few times to established heavyweights and finally breaks through to the top. There wasn’t even a hill here. The Spurs faced the Thunder in five regular season games and won four. They beat them in their first game last season. Perhaps the Wembanyama is so big that it can pull itself up to the top of the mountain from a standing position.
Heaven is not going anywhere. They will likely be among the Black’s biggest threats going forward. They’ll likely be healthy for a repeat next season, and both sides are loaded with enough assets to move on the trade market if they decide it’s necessary. The rivalry is not over.
But this is probably the worst Wembanyama has ever been. He is not even close to his peak. One of the stories of the season was how well Oklahoma City’s defense kept Black away from the rim. He had 23 touches in the paint in Game 1, according to NBA.com tracking data. After that he had 33 in a combined 2-6 games. He still can’t dictate his place around the rim like he will in a few years, and his young guards will get better at getting him the ball. He won’t completely bulk up, but he will likely add muscle to better handle Oklahoma City’s physical condition. After all, his game is still improving. He worked with Hakeem Olajuwon last season. Chances are, he’ll join other legends next summer. He is getting better.
He has a ways to go before he can reach those lofty aspirations. He’s not even a champion yet, and the New York Knicks pose a real threat to his coronation. They beat the Spurs twice in the regular season, including in the NBA Cup Finals, and that was before New York’s surprise run in the Eastern Conference. He might lose. He may face the same stumbling blocks that Jordan and Jacob faced when they took over.
But the basketball world looked at Wembanyama before he arrived in the NBA and thought he would probably be the best player in the league in his third season. That idea, unusual as it seemed to some at the time, came true. And as it is, we probably can’t discard any other strange beliefs about his future.
Who cares if he only played for three years? We are all looking at him and thinking the same thing. There has never been anyone like him before. No one has ever had his combination of size, ability and discipline. He can do things on the basketball court that no one else has.
It will take him years to get back up to par with Jordan or James, but he’s getting past where they were at this stage of their careers. If this goes the way we think it will, he will be the greatest player in NBA history.
