The AFC Championship has been decided by the AFC West for the past eight years. The surprise in 2025 is that it featured the Denver Broncos instead of the Kansas City Chiefs. Bo Nix and company took this division with a record of 14-3, while the Chiefs went 6-11 and missed completely. It was the worst season of the Andy Reid era. Was it an unfortunate blip in royalty, or a sign of things to come?
The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, registered their second 11-win season for the first time since the LaDainian Tomlinson era, but the offensive line allowed a record 60 sacks. Justin Herbert is now 0-3 in the postseason, while the Las Vegas Raiders are still looking for some stability. This offseason may have been the one that finally put them on track.
Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule is here, let’s break down the 2026 win totals for each AFC West team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Part of me feels like the NFL world is always down on the Broncos. They rightly have a top-five defense, and Bo Nix is the first quarterback to win double-digit games and record 30 total touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. It’s actually never been done before. Nix ranks in the top three all-time in QB wins (24), total touchdowns (64) and passing touchdowns (54) in the quarterback’s first two seasons.
Some would argue that the Broncos are bound for a comeback, as they registered an NFL-record 12 comeback wins in 2025, but my argument is that they won’t need to face lesser opponents again if they just play consistently on offense. Sean Payton stepped down as Davis Webb’s offensive lineman, and Jaylen Waddle is now in the bullpen as WR1. Denver would have made the Super Bowl if Nix hadn’t injured his ankle in the divisional round. I dare not say this is their year, but the Broncos win 10 games in 2026.
The decision: Above 9.5
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +115, Under -140)
The Kings are coming off three consecutive Super Bowl games and seven consecutive AFC Championship games to miss the playoffs completely at 6-11. Who saw that?
Patrick Mahomes’ offense ranks 20th in yards per game (320.6) and 21st in points per game (21.3), while the Chiefs’ defense ranks in the top 10 in both categories. Over the past three seasons, Mahomes has averaged nearly 50 more passing yards per game than in his first five NFL seasons as a full-time starter. Kansas City landed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who they hope will spark the offense in more ways than one. It’s been a minute since the Chiefs had a player running forward.
Believe it or not, Kansas City exceeded its preseason win total in 10 of Andy Reid’s 13 seasons. Reid hasn’t gone under his preseason win total in back-to-back seasons since 2012, when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles. History shows that Over at plus money is a solid bet.
The decision: Above 10.5
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under 5.5 (Over -145, Under +120)
If you look at what the Raiders have accomplished, they are definitely getting better. Tyler Linderbaum broke financial records in the center, Georgia defenders Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker reunited, and the quarterback room is improved with Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza. We know that real contenders are built in the draft, and the Raiders division looks pretty good on paper. Second-round pick Treydan Stukes was a top college football prospect in 2025, third-rounder Trey Zuhn III could start on the offensive line immediately if needed, and the Raiders scored fourth-rounders with linebacker Jermod McCoy and running back Mike Washington Jr.
Despite the winning offseason, there are still reasons to be pessimistic about the Raiders. I’m down for Mendoza’s wide receiver group, and the defense should prove it can keep up with a loaded AFC West. If I’m at the top of this category overall in 2026, that means the worst team in the group could struggle to reach 6-10. Especially when that team plays a very tough top-seven like the Raiders.
The decision: Less than 5.5
Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
The Chargers are coming off a surprisingly embarrassing loss. Yes, perhaps even more embarrassing than going 27-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. Seriously, Justin Herbert looked like he didn’t even belong, and the offensive line couldn’t stop anything. However, there is a new offensive concept in town and Mike McDaniel.
I understand that fans are rooting for the Chargers in 2026, but their plan scares me. Check out this seven-game stretch from Weeks 3-10:
So, those five teams won the playoffs last season, and the other two contenders had MVP quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. In fact, at this point, the Chargers will face the last four NFL MVPs and play three of the four conference championship teams from last year.
While the Chargers appear to have one of the strongest systems in the NFL, I will take them to win exactly 10 games. I’m counting on McDaniel to come up with explosive plays.
The decision: Above 9.5
