Perhaps the most interesting matchup on Thursday’s MLB slate is the Phillies at Red Sox because Boston lefty Suarez is facing his former team in Philadelphia for the first time in his nine-season career. And Suarez faces a replacement in southpaw Jesus Luzardo. It’s 6:45 pm ET for the first pitch from Fenway for the final series, weather permitting.
Phillies-Red Sox DraftKings parlay (-115)
- Red Sox +1.5
- Alt Under 10.5
The Phillies signed Suarez for just $25,000 back when he was 16 years old in Venezuela. He proved to be a great investment, as he spent 13 years with the organization and became a regular in 2021. Suarez recorded a 3.38 ERA in 187 regular season games and pitched in 11 total playoff appearances going 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA spanning 42.2 innings.
Suarez became a fan and clubhouse favorite, and a giant photo of him hugging catcher JT Realmuto after signing the 2022 NLCS finals still hangs prominently in the Phillies’ home clubhouse. Players at the club reportedly FaceTimed with him in the clubhouse a few weeks ago. “I love you guys. I miss you guys. See you soon,” Suarez told his teammates, per NBC Sports Philadelphia.
But baseball is a business, and even in big markets the Phillies have limitations so they didn’t really try to re-sign Suarez this past winter, they just hit him with a qualifying offer. Suarez turned that down and signed a five-year, $130 million deal with Boston. That was considered the best after the Red Sox failed to re-sign their free agent third baseman Alex Bregman.
Fans looking to bet on MLB need to see the latest DraftKings promo code.
Because Suarez rejected a $22,025,000 qualifying offer from Philadelphia in November, Boston gave up its second and fifth top picks in July’s rookie draft and lost $1 million in international signing bonus quota in 2027. Philadelphia received another pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft as compensation.
Suarez has been pretty good for the Sox so far at 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in seven innings but hasn’t gone since throwing four shutout innings vs. Houston on May 3. He walked because of a right hamstring strain but only missed one. Suarez hit a little hard in his first start, perhaps trying to justify that huge contract, but he hasn’t allowed a run in four of the five games since, with a 1.17 ERA over it.
The SportsLine Projection Model projects Suarez at 5.5 innings, 5.3 strikeouts, 5.4 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs tonight. Although he never faced the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber (0-for-5, two Ks) and Trea Turner (3-for-10, two doubles) saw him while with other clubs.
“It’s tough,” Phillies All-Star catcher JT Realmuto said of facing a guy he caught for years but never saw as a legitimate hitter. “You can’t overthink and try to guess what he’s going to do because he’s probably not going to do what I think he’s going to do. So the last thing I want to do is go up there and try to figure out what he’s going to throw at me.”
Interested in betting on MLB? You should check the latest BetMGM promo code to get the best offer.
The Phillies were considering replacing Suarez when they acquired the younger Luzardo from the Marlins in December 2024. And just months after Suarez signed his contract last season with Boston, the Phillies locked up Luzardo to a nearly five-year, $135 million extension to lock him out this season.
Luzardo has struggled at times this year, going 3-3 with a 5.98 ERA, but almost all of his trouble has come at home (1-3, 8.65 ERA) rather than walks (2-0, 2.00 ERA). He’s always been one of those guys who doesn’t match well because of control. Last Friday against Colorado, Luzardo took 95 pitches to complete just three innings after failing to record a fourth inning (three walks).
Those were the most home runs by any MLB player without at least three complete games since 2022. That followed a bad start in which Luzardo gave up just two earned runs in 13.3 innings with 18 strikeouts and zero walks. Before that, he was 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA in his first five starts in 2026.
Look at ours Bet365 promo code to see the best new offers available when betting on MLB futures.
Note that the weather doesn’t look good in Boston tonight, with rain and wind, but since it’s Philly’s last visit of the season to the city, they’ll do their best to play it. It’s hard to see many runs scored in that situation, though. I’m overly cautious in 10.5. Check out more expert picks in SportsLine’s daily newsletter.
