In the middle of last week, it seems that the Minnesota Twins may be looking to trade Joe Ryan as part of what could be a big sale at the trade deadline, as they did in 2025. However, it now appears that the Twins are suddenly on the rise and will make a push to make the playoffs, which could mean keeping Ryan, who returns to the Royals mound tonight against the visiting Royals.
The first pitch in Wednesday’s Royals vs. The Twins are set for 7:40 pm ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minn. The Twins are -202 moneyline favorites in the MLB consensus deal, with Kansas City a +167 underdog, and the Over/Under for total runs scored is set at If you’re interested in If you’re interested in 9. MLB bettingyou can also check out the SportsLine Projection Model for more picks on Royals vs. Twins.
Royals-Twins MLB matchup matchup
- Minnesota cash line
- Under 1.5 first inning runs
DraftKings SGP Price: +102
The addition of all these wild card spots has made the playoff races more interesting, but that may make this year’s trade deadline less effective because there are fewer sellers, and now in theory you should add Minnesota. And I don’t know why the twins don’t want to. They are just two games out of the first in the AL Central’s most-winnable streak and a half out of the last AL wild-card spot. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the team a 42.3% shot in extra baseball, and the DraftKings price for the postseason either way is +185 (equals 35.1%).
The 30-year-old Ryan (6-6, 3.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) would be a nice return, as he only makes $6 million this season and there is a similar option for $13 million next season that the Twins will absolutely test. If they don’t make the 2026 playoffs, they can stick with Ryan early in the season and continue to do well with a positive outlook, assuming he plays well the rest of the way.
The Twins could also look to trade All-Star infielder Byron Buxton this winter, but apparently they are keeping him until the deadline. Note that injury-plagued Buxton left Tuesday’s win with a hamstring, so he may sit out tonight. Or maybe you play at designated hitter.
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I’m not stressing too much about Ryan’s last start, when he was bullied in Cleveland, allowing eight runs and 10 hits, including a career-high and franchise-record six homers over four innings in a blowout loss. Ryan allowed at least one dinger in each inning. He was pitching well coming into the All-Star break and then pitched a scoreless inning in the Midsummer Classic.
Ryan was originally going to return to the mound on Sunday, but the Twins opted to hold him back due to “arm fatigue” so I’m writing that as a bad outing. And I’m sure it’s upsetting for major leaguers to hear their names in trade rumors and they may have to pick up and move their families immediately. So hopefully both issues will be resolved tonight against a bad team.
Although, Ryan hasn’t been great against the Royals in 2026 going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts spanning 10.0 innings, with Kansas City hitters hitting a solid .357 against him. That’s the highest of any team Ryan has faced this year. But most of that damage was done in his April 1 start at KC, when he allowed five runs over four innings. He allowed one more than six home runs against the team in a no-hitter on June 6.
The model has Ryan at 5.3 innings pitched, 5.8 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. The Royals haven’t done much against his career, and slugger Vinnie Pasquantino (6-for-22, two 2B, HR vs. Ryan) is likely out after leaving Tuesday with a hand problem.
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There is no doubt that Kansas City, which also has not injured Bobby Witt Jr. of the All-Star shortstop, will be traded before the deadline as the team has regressed since securing a 2024 playoff spot. I can’t believe manager Matt Quatraro is back next year. Kalshi has the next open manager on the market, and Quatraro is near the top of that list of best-selling guys for Yes.
It looks to be a bullpen type game tonight led by Randy Dobnak (0-0, 1.42 ERA). He has made four appearances, two as a long piggy-back and two true starters. The 31-year-old was excellent last Thursday in Detroit as a pure starter, throwing five shutout innings. With Stephen Kolek (forward) recently transferred to the 60-day disabled list, Dobnak should start the rest of the season unless he is also traded.
Dobnak happened to spend the first six seasons of his career (2019-25) with Minnesota, and this will be his first time facing his former team. He averaged 5.5 innings, 3.8 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.4 earned runs. Due to injuries, inactivity and more, Dobnak has not received a decision in a major league game since 2021.
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The Royals are hitting .180 with runners in scoring position since the break, so I see him doing very little against Ryan. He has a 2.49 career ERA in 13 starts vs. Kansas City with a 0.98 WHIP and a .205 batting average against it. The Twins had a chance to go over .500 for the first time since April. You can’t beat that. Check out more expert picks in SportsLine’s daily newsletter.
