2024 College Football picks Week 7: Bet Penn State, Iowa coverage

Week 7 of college football is already here, and as I say every year, time flies when you play football.

But what makes this time more fun is watching a few go through the hoop and win.

I’m ready to try my hand again this week. Lucky No. 7, right? Let’s dive into it.

(All times ET)

SATURDAY, OCT. 12

Washington @ Iowa (noon, FOX app and FOX Sports)

I’m just betting on the situation, and that’s Iowa winning after a loss, paired with Washington on the road after a big emotional win.

Iowa dominated Ohio State after outplaying the Buckeyes in the first half. No surprise there. But I don’t think that result changes much how we should look at this game.

Washington is not Iowa. The Iowa case has the same problems as usual. The Hawkeyes can’t pass the ball with any consistency. However, they are much better than last season – which is saying a lot.

Washington’s rushing defense has been good this season, but it should be noted that this Iowa team will be one of the best offenses it has faced all season. Yards per play by Washington opponents ranked 113th, 17th (loss to Washington State), 70th (loss to Rutgers), 106th and 120th.

Iowa is ranked 78th, and has three teams the Hawkeyes have faced with top 18 defenses.

I think Iowa’s offense has a rebound effect this week against Washington’s defense.

On the other hand, there’s the Iowa defense that usually plays well against everyone that isn’t Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are 16th in points per drive and tied for the top three of the Huskies, with Washington averaging 23.3 points in conference play.

Washington had one road game and all of the team’s penalties and play-call issues were pointed out.

I think Iowa will bounce back this weekend.

PICK: Iowa (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

California @ No. 22 Pittsburgh (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Again – I’m just betting on the situation here.

Cal went up 35-10 and 38-18 to Miami last Saturday at home and ended up losing 39-38.

The Bears were outscored 29-3 in the final quarter. Now, Cal must travel across the country for the third time in six games (Auburn and Florida State), while trying to bounce back from that loss.

Pittsburgh is 5-0 and playing good ball. The Panthers are an offensive-minded team, ranking seventh in points per drive and just 75th in offense.

Pitt produced the most games of 20 or more yards in the country offensively. Cal’s offense is the opposite, ranking 101st in points per drive.

While the C’s defense has always been good under Wilcox, it’s hard to support a team that can’t score on the road after a big emotional loss. I like Pittsburgh to win and cover.

PICK: Pittsburgh (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

No. 4 Penn State @ USC (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Lincoln Riley joined USC in the winter months of 2021.

In his first season, his Trojans went 11-3, and quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman. Last season, Riley’s squad started the season 6-0 against a soft schedule, against one opponent with a winning record. Once the Trojans got into the meat of the schedule, they faltered, losing games to Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon, Washington and UCLA.

The theme of this loss was the same: The opponent they were facing looked real when they were attacked, both on the offensive and defensive lines. USC has failed to cover in four of those five losses, with the only cover coming to Oregon on a late touchdown.

Fast forward to 2024, and USC faced two teams capable of playing talented football on both sides, Michigan and Minnesota. USC lost both and failed to tie both games.

SC fans may point to LSU’s win as proof that USC losing to “better” teams is no longer the norm, but LSU’s defense isn’t perfect. The Tigers can’t stop anyone. They are not like the other groups mentioned.

Penn State comes to the Coliseum on Saturday as a team that can do both.

The Nittany Lions can win on the offensive and defensive lines. Their defense ranks ninth in points per drive, sixth in DL damage rate and eighth in pressure rate. SC’s offensive line isn’t good. It should be the worst group of offensive players on Lincoln Riley’s team. The Trojans OL ranks 129th in pressure rating. Quarterback Miller Moss is always running for his life.

In short, I don’t see how USC can move the ball consistently against Penn State.

The Trojans’ defensive coordinator change this season has paid off. They are the better team this season. They get along better and are in the right place more often than not. But they won’t be able to last a whole game without being annoyed to give them some help.

I worry about Penn State’s offense leaving you wanting more at times, but I think the Nittany Lions defense will give them short fields and some turnovers that will help Penn State get to the end zone. I like Penn State coverage.

PICK: Penn State (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle at the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.

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