Who will win the 2026 Open? Scottie Scheffler’s woes, the leading field of Rory McIlroy’s schedule

For the last major championship of the season, i 154th Open Championship play it can be just that: wide open. Returning to Royal Birkdale for the first time since 2017, the Open heads to Southport, England, where the home team will be in action, while those from across the Atlantic Ocean will be hoping to follow the fate of the final three runners-up in the Championship of the Year.

Since the 2020 event was cancelled, four of the five winners have represented the red, white and blue with Scottie Scheffler lifting the Claret Jug for the final time at Royal Portrush. Scheffler’s name would fit well with the Royal Birkdale champions, with a long list of Americans such as Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Mark O’Meara and Jordan Spieth, alongside others including Peter Thomson (twice), Ian Baker-Finch and Padraig Harrington.

All of these players have won The Open at Royal Birkdale, and while on paper it may seem like one of the biggest tournaments in the April to July crowd, this event requires some kind of appetite as these players do.

Golf balls will be there, golf balls will be hustling for what feels like forever and awkward poses will be a constant sight that makes yoga instructors drool.

Physical play is just one ingredient in the recipe for an open championship, however. What’s between the ears holds all the ingredients — determination, patience and acceptance among them — during a week that will be trying, testing and a real joy to watch unfold.

Let’s dive into all the news and more of the 154th Open.

Scheffler’s defense

This time last season, Scheffler didn’t make a mistake. From the Masters to The Open, the world No. 1 played in nine tournaments, won a major and two other titles, and never finished worse than T8 in any event. This year, at this point in the calendar, Scheffler has played in nine tournaments, finished second four times and finished outside the top 10 several times, including this past week at the Scottish Open, where he missed the cut for the first time in four years.

The question that has followed Scheffler all season — right or wrong — is bound to come up at The Open given the looming exit before the season’s final major: what went wrong? And in that place — close up — where the eyeballs should be visible.

Scheffler approach from 2024-26

Rory ran slowly

Rory McIlroy is three tournaments short of where he was in 2025 heading into The Open, as the power feels better (both literally and figuratively). His motivation was clear last year, heading to the Open organized by his country (Northern Ireland), and although this one will be in England, his goals are still to get his hands on the most sought-after golf trophies.

McIlroy’s biggest issue during this light schedule was not his game in the first two rounds. He had a chance going into the weekend at the US Open before rounds of 73-73. It was a similar story at the Scottish Open, where he led 18- and 36-hole points before finishing inside the top 10.

“The benefits are seeing my family a lot,” McIlroy said at the Scottish Open. “I feel like I have more balance in my life. And the challenge is, I feel like even though I’ve played a little bit in the last few months, the start of my tournaments has been really good.

“So it’s not like I’m coming in and starting slow, and a little more practice I think really helps in some ways. I think that’s one of the advantages for me, like I’m almost 20 years into this, and I need to do everything I can to keep my motivation as high as possible, and playing a lighter schedule definitely does that.”

Time for a full circle?

No player has finished in the top 10 in all three majors this season. Want to know who is closest? That would be Justin Rose, who has finished T3, T10 and T11 in each of his first three majors, with the closest call coming at the Masters in April. He entered the ninth on Sunday with a two-stroke lead.

Approaching 50 by the time he’s 40, Rose’s window is more closed than open, but if there was ever a week for the golf gods to answer his (and many fans’) prayers, one has to assume it will happen at Royal Birkdale, the place where he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 1998, finishing tied for fourth.

English golf

It might be the team’s best opportunity in a really long time. In a year ripe for nominations, English golfers have done a lot of damage with Matt Fitzpatrick leading the way with wins on the PGA Tour, Rose running away from the Farmers Insurance Open, and Aaron Rai taking down the PGA Championship. Then there’s Tyrrell Hatton, a recent winner at LIV Golf and Mr Reliable himself, Tommy Fleetwood, who is home boy this week in Southport.

Heading into the Scottish Open, English golfers represent five of the top 21 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings and three of the top 10. This is significant not only because The Open is held in England, but also because an Englishman has not lifted the Claret Jug since Nick Faldo in 1992. Faldo has won three times since Jacklin Golfer in 6 Year 19 Openman only.

For the first time

Not since 2014 has a major season come and gone without a first major winner emerging. Rai has made sure that continues with his impressive PGA Championship wins, but others will be hoping for a year like 2022 when more than one debutant arrives at a time.

The Open represents the last chance for immortality on the calendar, and there are a number of candidates who have their eyes set on making history. Surprisingly, most of them have had opportunities in this major tournament with Cameron Young, Chris Gotterup and Tommy Fleetwood all having field spots in recent memory.

Notable players who don’t have much competition

Royal Birkdale baked

There have been … uh … a lot of changes at Royal Birkdale since 2017. In an attempt to keep up with the times, the R&A suggested that these changes be made to host the Open more effectively.

On the outer nine, the par-4 5th and par-3 7th have been redesigned with new fairways. Both holes will play short again. If it goes in, the old par-3 14th is removed, and the old 15th is renumbered as the 14th. There is a new par 3 at No. 15 with some changes in Nos. 16 and 18.

The biggest eyeball grab will come at No. 13. Yes, that 13 — the 13th where Spieth went up the right and made that infamous queen en route to victory. All this comes as the heat and lack of rain continues to bake the Royal Birkdale, making it a yellow, shiny, baked test.

About ten years ago

If you’re a Spieth fan, more than a decade has been removed from your life in the last nine years. (Or maybe that was the life that was drained after the back nine at the 2017 Open alone.) Taking a three-stroke lead into the final round, Spieth cut back to half the lead walking off the fourth green.

That’s when he stood next to Matt Kuchar on the 13th before the bogey of all bogeys happened. Taking the unplayable, hitting a third over the mound from the driving range next to the equipment trucks and somehow only dropping one shot, Spieth summoned the only magic he seemed to be able to muster over the past nine years en route to his third and most recent major title.

He finished his final round of bogey, birdie, eagle, birdie, birdie, for a par to win by three ho-hum strokes — the same margin he led entering the final round. He’s only won twice since his rollercoaster rally at Royal Birkdale, and recent form doesn’t suggest another one is coming anytime soon, but a return to the site nonetheless stirs emotions, memories and, if you’re lucky, some past game.

The biggest day in English sporting history?

An ol’ English double could happen this week. England’s men’s national team have played their way into the semi-finals of the World Cup for the fourth time, and a number of Englishmen crowded the golf course into the real contenders’ category at The Open held in England.

If England’s national team were to reach Sunday’s final, which is scheduled to start at 3 p.m. ET, reports suggest the R&A is already planning to move up the times. This may coincide with the end of another drought — that of English golfers at The Open.

Come Sunday, it will probably hit home in more ways than one.