Justin Verlander will retire as the best pitcher of a generation

The term “generational talent” is used in sports. We use it to show that a player is a great talent and has a shot to be a Hall of Famer one day. It was used on Justin Verlander many times, and it was good. He is the best striker of his generation.

Accumulated generation of pitchers, too. He skipped the careers of many Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers and “Hall of the Very Good” types. In his first All-Star Game, he was paired with CC Sabathia and Johan Santana while the National League featured John Smoltz, Cole Hamels, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner. In 2022, he was there with Gerrit Cole. This time, we’ll see him alongside the likes of Paul Skenes and Chris Sale. Along the way, he also pitched in the same age group as guys like Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina and Tom Glavine down Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler.

Verlander’s career is often tied for all-time greats with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, and maybe even Zack Greinke. For good reason. Their primes were very consistent and four hitters or all ranks in the Hall of Fame. Verlander is the best of the bunch, too. Let’s save them.

All of these are Hall of Famers, but Verlander, again, is at the top of the stack. Kershaw was better on average, but Verlander amassed more production because of his durability relative to longevity. The combination of dominance and longevity is what makes him truly special and gives me reason to rank him above Kershaw.

Verlander has an offense that deserves to be called one of the greatest hitters of all time. He sits 24th in pitcher WAR, but in adjusted WAR — to account for the highest innings pitched in the 19th and early 20th centuries — he’s 12th behind, in order, Walter Johnson, Clemens, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Martinez, Maddux, Tom Gibthe, Alexander Cybthe, Christian Giverson, Christian Giverson

Only Clemens has finished in the top five of Cy Young voting more times (10 times; Verlander, Maddux and Randy Johnson nine times). The pitchers with more Cy Youngs than Verlander’s three are Clemens (seven), Randy Johnson (five), Maddux (four) and Steve Carlton (four). Verlander was hired in 2016 when Rick Porcello beat him by five voting points despite Verlander receiving six more first-place votes and having his best season.

Verlander is one of 25 pitchers in history to win the MVP.

266 wins this season is amazing and amazing. Among active players, Scherzer is second with 222 and Cole is third with 154. The sale is limited to more than 150 other jars. deGrom just won his 100th game.

Verlander is seventh all-time in hitting and has a good shot at sixth before the year is out. He will finish behind, in order, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Clemens, Carlton, Bert Blyleven and Seaver. Don Sutton is just 20 behind Verlander in sixth. All pitchers before Verlander on this list are well over 4,000 innings, while Ryan, Carlton and Sutton are over 5,000. Verlander will end up in the 3,600s.

Let’s take a look at the added win probability, which does what it says: it takes the win probability of each game and calculates how much a player adds or subtracts to his team’s chance of winning. Verlander is 23rd all-time among hitters, and a good number of guys ahead of him have a really heavy load — and, thus, more opportunities to increase their teams’ chances of winning (in fairness, we should note that Kershaw beat him here).

Despite all of this, Verlander has been a master in multiple postseasons. He made the playoffs 10 different times and was part of the rotation — usually the ace — of five different pennant winners and two World Series champions. He was the ALCS MVP in 2017 after putting the Astros pitching staff on his back. Overall, he was 17-12 with 244 strikeouts in 226 innings during 38 playoff appearances. He won one playoff game at age 23 and one at age 40.

Also, the combination of dominance and longevity rears its head.

In a sea of ​​impressive feats, I think the biggest one was Verlander’s 2022 season. He was 39 and had missed all of 2021 after having Tommy John surgery. In 175 innings, he had a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, a career-best ERA between his qualifying seasons. Cy Young won. In 39 years. He is coming off elbow surgery. He became the fourth oldest pitcher ever to win the award behind Clemens (42 in 2004), Gaylord Perry (40 in 1978) and Early Wynn (39 in 1959; only 40 days older than Verlander in their respective seasons).

There is also an eye exam. I don’t think this is the case for everyone because the Hall of Fame standards are lower than this threshold, but some people like to say something like “when you look at a Hall of Famer, you just know.” Or maybe, “you don’t have to think about it.” Verlander is clearing the entire bar there. We knew we were looking at the magnitude of reality. Watching his debut felt special from 2009 until 2023 at least.

When he was at his best in the playoffs, it was a thing of beauty. How about Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS in Oakland where he pitched a shutout to push his team to the ALCS which they would have won, earning the Tigers a penalty kick? Man, that was good stuff. Ten years later, he would win the all-important Game 5 in Philadelphia to put his team on the verge of winning Dusty Baker’s first World Series as manager. It happened in Game 6, giving Verlander his second ring.

We really don’t need to doubt that Verlander will be in the Hall of Fame five years after he retires. He will win on the first ballot with over 95% and his opponents will be embarrassed to lose him a unanimous nomination.

Instead, we can focus on where he ranks among the greatest hitters in history. The short, simple answer is very high. Over the past 22 years, we’ve seen one of the best pitchers Major League Baseball has ever seen and the best of his generation, even in a crowded field.