On election night, Santa Ana City Council member Jessie Lopez found herself in third place, trailing Democratic council colleague David Penaloza and Republican business owner Mayra Ruiz in the race to represent Orange County’s 68th Assembly District.
Tearful supporters at the California Working Families Party’s shindig at Mission Control and the arcade in downtown Santa Ana hugged Lopez, gave her flowers and wished her well.
If the 37-year-old was sad, he didn’t show it. Lopez had seen this play before.
In 2023, the council member rejected a recall effort sponsored by the Santa Ana police union and apartment owners who disliked his progressive views in a city where moderate Democrats have dominated politics for decades and leftists have been marginalized for a long time.
I wrote a column shortly thereafter, heralding Lopez’s stunning victory as a new era for Latino politics in Orange County, where Latinos make up a third of the population but still wield little power.
Lopez spent the next three years along with other progressive Santa Ana council members improving the city’s employment control policies and its immigration defense fund. Still, few gave Lopez a chance in his rally race.
Penaloza – who refused to vote when the council decided whether to revoke Lopez’s recall election – was supported by Orange County and the established California Democratic Party, from now 68th District Assemblyman Avelino Valencia (who is running for the 34th Senate District) to Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas to Katie Porter, who was a member of the Orange County Assembly this year.
Penaloza’s campaign mailers and video ads have been so ubiquitous these past few weeks that they filled my inbox and interrupted my reading of Hulu’s “Vanderpump Villa.”
So are the anti-Lopez mailers and ads, funded by nearly $2.7 million in private expenses. Yet Lopez once again retaliated against his well-funded opposition.
As of Wednesday evening, the latest election results from the Orange County Registrar of Voters had him in second place – less than 1,000 votes away from Penaloza.
“Voters have proven that while money can influence politics, it can’t buy public support,” Lopez said this week as he tried to enjoy tacos and guacamole at Lola Gaspar in downtown Santa Ana, where well-wishers kept calling him or congratulating the candidate in person. “This race is about the future of California — whether we answer to the companies and people inside or to the hard-working people we’ve been elected to serve.”
With Orange County Supervisor Vicente Sarmiento easily winning re-election and Meet Here Fellow Precinct 11 president Ada Briceño currently participating in her bid to represent the 67th Assembly District, which includes parts of Los Angeles County, Lopez may be the only OC Latino moving forward running in November for a seat above the local level.
Expect Lopez vs. Penaloza to be a poll on whether the leftward shift of Latino voters in Orange County continues — or whether your establishment is catching up.
“I chose my side,” Lopez told me. “I’m proud to have working people.”
Then he excused himself – someone wanted to say what was going on.
Understanding
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Ideas
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Ideas expressed in the episode
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The column portrays Jessie Lopez as a symbol of emerging, disproportionately progressive Latino politics in Orange County, saying the movement is challenging decades of centrist Democratic rule and Latino underrepresentation in positions of real power.
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It emphasizes that Lopez’s political credibility comes from having survived a 2023 recall effort backed by the Santa Ana police union and apartment owners, which the piece describes as a key victory that marked a revolution for leftist Latinos in the region.[1]
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The article cites Lopez’s record on the Santa Ana City Council—especially work to tighten rent control and expand the immigrant defense fund—as evidence that progressive Latinos are now in charge, not just planning, and that these policies are working for working-class residents.[1]
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It underlines the size of the opposition that Lopez faces, noting that powerful interests and nearly 2.7 million private expenses were used against him, yet he still advanced in November, which the article presents as proof that grassroots support can win big money in politics.
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The column contrasts Lopez’s lackluster status with establishment support behind his rival Democrat David Penaloza, who is aligned with the district and the Democratic Alliance base, and interprets Lopez’s entry into second place as a rebuke to party insiders who had ruled out his chances.
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It describes how Lopez framed the race as a choice between “corporations and insiders” and “hard working people,” highlighting the endorsements of labor and progressive leaders as reinforcing his identity as a champion of working families rather than entrenched interests.[2]
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The piece suggests that the Lopez–Penaloza matchup will serve as a broader referendum on whether Latino voters in Orange County will continue to drift left or whether the centrist orientation will reassert itself, placing Lopez as the general manager on the progressive side of that divide.
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It also underscores Lopez’s uniqueness by noting that, with other Latino developers not safely re-elected at the local level or following their legislative bids, Lopez may be the only Orange County Latino running for the November high-level election, expanding the ranks of his campaign.
Different opinions on the topic
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Lopez’s critics in Santa Ana have argued that the councilman’s agenda is overly motivated and doesn’t pay enough attention to public safety and financial stability, a view that came up a lot during the 2023 recall, when supporters argue that his policy positions undermine effective governance and public safety.[1]
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Remember supporters, including the police union and property owners’ interests, have maintained that Lopez’s role in strengthening rent control and supporting tenant protection represents an overreach that they believe discourages investment, burdens small landlords, and could ultimately reduce the supply and quality of housing in the city.[1]
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Opponents have also argued that his stance on issues such as policing and criminal justice strays too far from segments of the electorate, arguing that more moderate Democrats or centrist candidates are better positioned to balance reform with public safety and appeal to a broader segment of Orange County voters.[1]
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From the point of view of some groups focused on business and landlords, Lopez’s affiliation with organized labor and progressive organizations, as well as recommendations from national high-level processes, indicate a policy direction that is associated with high regulatory costs, strict labor standards, and a political environment that they consider hostile to business growth.[2]
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Within Democratic Alliance circles, strong establishment support for David Penaloza and other establishment candidates reflects a competing view that stability, incremental change, and coalition building with advisers are more effective tactics in competitive areas like Orange County than the confrontational style and ambitious reforms favored by progressive opponents.
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Additionally, some analysts and political organizations point to the mixed results of progressive Latino candidates elsewhere in the state as evidence that Lopez’s success is not guaranteed to translate into broad redistricting, and argue that many Latino voters in Orange County remain swing voters rather than committed to leftist parties.
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Skeptics of Lopez’s “insiders vs. working people” framework argue that such rhetoric simplifies complex policy debates, noting that unions, nonprofits, and the progressive political organizations that support him are powerful players in shaping laws and budgets, and that public interests cannot be neatly divided into grassroots versus establishment.[2]
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Finally, opponents warn that if Lopez’s approach becomes the leading model for Latino politics in Orange County, it could intensify ideological divisions within local Democratic politics, potentially weakening the party’s ability to compete with Republicans in hotly contested districts and to assemble the broad coalitions needed to pass lasting reforms.
