As the California gubernatorial primary draws to a close on June 2, polls show voters are deeply divided among the three candidates running for Gov. Gavin Newsom at a historically dangerous time for the state and the nation.
Among likely California voters, 25% support Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former Biden Cabinet secretary, according to a survey conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and released Thursday. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and British political strategist, has 21% support, while 19% support billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmental activist Tom Steyer, a Democrat.
California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra poses for a selfie during a campaign event Tuesday in San Francisco.
(Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images)
Research has given a clear indication yet that these three have separated themselves from the rest of the field. Support has increased for Becerra, Hilton and Steyer since the last Berkeley IGS poll in March. Becerra outshines everyone. In early March, he rolled near the bottom of the pack with 5% support among likely voters, and now he’s the frontrunner.
Other candidates have failed. Support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, has dropped 5%, and he now finds himself in a distant fourth place. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine nearly halved to 7 percent. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond – all Democrats – remained in the single digits.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo warned that it is not clear who will finish first and second in the June 2 primary, an important question because only the top two will advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation. The low turnout so far makes predicting the outcome very difficult.
Although all registered voters in California were sent a mail-in ballot, many have not returned it or left it at the polls — a sign of the uncertain nature of this year’s gubernatorial race. The survey, which includes all 61 gubernatorial candidates, found that the Democratic turnout so far is significantly lower than in previous elections, DiCamillo said.
Steve Hilton arrives for a news conference at the San Jose Diridon train station on Tuesday.
(Jason Henry/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“We think … the Democrats are going to show up in the last week after we finish our polls and start making what looks like Hilton’s lead, and those voters favor Becerra,” DiCamillo said.
The poll, conducted between May 19 and 24, found that Democratic voters favored Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points. Voters who registered as “no party choice” were evenly split between Becerra, Steyer and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton led Bianco by nearly 2 to 1.
Becerra also had an advantage over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer had an advantage among black voters. Hilton was more popular than the two Democrats among independent libertarians and voters in Orange County, the Central Valley and the north coast and Sierra region.
The survey found that 7% of voters remain undecided.
For the first time in more than a quarter of a century, the race to lead the country’s most populous country and the world’s fourth-largest economy has lacked a front-runner despite a number of candidates.
Two of California’s most popular Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and US Sen. Alex Padilla, both tied for the gubernatorial race before deciding not to run, contributing to the race’s intensification. The 2026 gubernatorial campaign has also languished in the shadow of President Trump’s tumult, including his crackdown on immigrants across Southern California, and the damage caused by the 2025 Pacific Palisades and Altadena wildfires.
But a flurry of recent developments has drawn attention to the race.
Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin), a former front-runner, withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress after multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and harassment, which he denies.
Tom Steyer participates in a campaign event in Santa Rosa on Wednesday.
(David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Additionally, premiums broke records entering the race. Steyer broke state fundraising records by pouring $212 million into his campaign as of Tuesday, according to the California secretary of state’s office. About $85 million has been donated to independent spending committees by corporations, labor unions, tech titans, Native American tribes and other special interests, many of which will have policy interests that will be in front of the next governor.
While California’s 2026 gubernatorial race lacks the glamor of recent contests that have included the likes of Arnold Schwarzenegger, political pundit Jerry Brown and former San Francisco mayor and 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, it comes at an important time for Californians.
The state’s most vulnerable citizens face major cuts in health care due to upcoming health care funding cuts, and California’s budget, which is already volatile due to its reliance on the state’s wealthiest citizens, could grow unexpectedly. The state of California’s highest gasoline prices have risen sharply due to the US-Iran war, adding to the state’s deep-seated inflation problem, which has displaced many residents of the state.
The cost of living, homelessness and public safety are among the top concerns expressed by voters, according to the survey. Protecting voting rights was also supported by many voters, although their underlying concerns may differ greatly based on their political views.
Democrats are focused on voter disenfranchisement, a fear that has grown after a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down part of the Voting Rights Act that forced states to draw voting districts to help elect Black or Latino representatives to Congress. Republicans agree with President Trump’s allegations that the election was rigged.
Chad Bianco is interviewed on May 6 after the gubernatorial debate at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles.
(Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times)
Voters are sharply divided along party lines on issues such as Trump’s policies on climate change, immigration and taxes.
Voter uncertainty in the governor’s race is driven in part by California’s unique, voter-approved “jungle” primary system, in which the two candidates who won the most votes in the June 2 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.
Although most of the state’s voters are registered Democrats, party leaders feared earlier this year that they would split the majority of Democrats in the polls, prompting Hilton and Bianco to advance to the November general election and ensure that a Republican would be elected governor. Bianco received 11% support in a new Berkeley poll.
Republicans had been tied for the polls, until Trump endorsed Hilton in April. More than a third of likely Republican voters said Trump’s endorsement of Hilton made them more likely to support him. Among voters who identified with the “Make America Great Again” movement, nearly two-thirds supported Hilton while less than 3 in 10 supported Bianco.
While Bianco’s supporters appear to be very passionate, “Hilton gained a broad base of support, and then Trump’s endorsement,” DiCamillo said.
He added that Hilton’s rise is unusual in California, where statewide candidates often spend large sums of money to boost their visibility among the state’s 23.1 million voters.
“What’s interesting about Hilton is that he hasn’t done much in his campaign in a traditional way. He hasn’t done a lot of advertising on television, you don’t see his name in traditional news, except in the free media,” said DiCamillo. “You can see that in the data, because almost one-third of voters still don’t have an opinion about Hilton … about what it was in March, which is surprising for a candidate who is among the leaders.”
Democrats’ fear of being shut out of the November general election led party leaders and allies to urge younger voters to get out of the race in dramatic public statements in March.
The tables have turned – the prospect of two Republicans winning the top spots in the June primary seems unlikely, while polls show the possibility of two Democrats advancing to the general election.
“I’m not saying it’s possible, but it’s possible that two Democrats will emerge, and that could have a big impact on the entry.” [November] election,” DiCamillo said, pointing to congressional races in California that could shape control of the US House of Representatives.
The survey of 8,578 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points either way.
