Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Four things to know about the first Subway Series of the season

This weekend at Citi Field, the New York Mets will host the rival New York Yankees in the first round of the 2026 Subway Series. The two teams will play three games in Queens this weekend, then meet for three games in the Bronx in September. This is MLB’s second annual rivalry weekend, which will combine this series with 11 others between interleague/geographic rivals.

The two New York teams enter the weekend at very different positions.

Overall MLB standings

1. The brave: 30-14
2. Radiation: 28-14 (1 GB)
3. Lambs: 28-16 (2GB)
4. Yankees: 27-17 (3 GB)
…
27. The Mets: 18-25 (11 ½ GB)
28. The Rockies: 17-27 (13)
29. Astros: 17-28 (13 ½ GB)
30. Angels: 16-28 (14 GB)

The current standings spoil what could have been an exciting narrative this weekend — “the Mets (a complete turnaround) and the Yankees (reversing it) show two very different offseason approaches that could both work” — but it’s a long season, and we still have time for that to happen. However, for now, the Yankees are once again one of the best teams in the league. The Mets were disappointed.

“I don’t really understand it,” Yankees captain Aaron Judge said of the Mets’ struggles (via The Athletic). “They have a great manager and (Carlos Mendoza) over there. They have a great program. A great team. Baseball. You can’t really judge a team six weeks into the season. If you did that, you’d take six weeks of us struggling and saying we’re the worst team out there. They’ve got a great ball club over there.”

Here are the details for this week’s Subway three-game series in Queens. Saturday and Sunday games can be streamed on fubo (Try for free).

Saturday’s lineup will be David Peterson’s remaining spot, though the Mets have paired him with the starter a few times in the past, so it was TBA. The Yankees have a top heavy left in the lineup with Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Ben Rice surrounding Judge in the 1-2-3-4 spots. Might have to start Peterson and get those lefty-lefty matchups in the first inning. We will see.

Here’s what you need to know if you’re headed to the latest Subway Series at Citi Field, along with the forecast, because why not?

1. Expect Soto to play

Yankee-Met shortstop Juan Soto exited Wednesday’s game for a few innings after hurting his ankle with a pitch, and losing Soto is the last thing the Mets need right now. X-rays showed no fracture, fortunately, and although the Mets initially said Soto was day-to-day, he was listed Thursday afternoon at DH. It takes a lot to keep that man off the list.

“I was worried right after the hit, because he made him look good there,” Mendoza said after Wednesday’s game (via MLB.com). “We went out there and you could tell he was in pain. That second stick didn’t look good. And then when I saw the coach coming towards me, I knew something was up … I’m glad we got some good news.”

Thursday’s performance clearly shows that Soto will be in a position to face the Yankees this weekend. I mean, I’m sure you’ll be playing with sticks before you miss the Subway Series. If he’s limited to DH, he’s limited to DH. It’s not like he’s lined up to protect left field. Soto may be sore after taking that pitch on the ankle, but it’s hard to see him not playing this weekend.

The Mets have averaged just 3.74 runs per game this year, one of the lowest marks in baseball. and the main reason is their inability to handle premium speeds. Going into Thursday, the Mets ranked 28th in batting average (.208) and 30th in slugging percentage (.269) against pitches 95 mph or faster. Every other team was slugging at least .300 against 95-plus mph heat.

Soto is, by a mile, New York’s best hitter against premium velocity, and the Mets will definitely need him against Schlittler and Weathers this weekend. They are the hardest throwers in the game. Schlittler uses his three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) a combined 91% of the time, and all are in the mid-90s. He has had a very bad partnership with the Mets and even with Soto.

In his last 10 games, Soto has gone 6 for 29 (.207) with two homers, so he’s in a bit of a slump right now more than maybe just sore from that bad ball. The person who hits this talent is almost always alone in getting out of it and going a hot distance, though. The Mets will need Soto this weekend in general, and especially against those top speed arms the Yankees will start.

2. The Yankees need more from the bottom of the order

The Yankees enter the Subway Series in a bit of a tizzy. They have lost six of their last eight games and have scored 0, 3, 3, 2, 6, and 0 runs in their last six games. They posted a five-run third inning against the Orioles on Tuesday and have scored three runs in the entire series. The case is currently cold and the case lies deep in the order.

“Overall, we had a good offense, but we’ve got to get some guys to contribute regularly,” manager Aaron Boone said after Wednesday’s shutout loss (via the New York Daily News). “And look, you’re seeing it around the league. There’s a lot of really good players coming up so far, so that’s part of it. We’ve had some guys and they’re starting to pull themselves out a little bit, but obviously we want to be a little bit more consistent.”

Bellinger, Judge, and Rice have been great. They are not to blame for the Yankees’ recent innocence. It’s the entire system that lets the Yankees down. Here are the numbers:

Injuries play a role here. The Yankees are down their starting shortstop (José Caballero), primary DH (Giancarlo Stanton), and second-string DH (Jasson Domínguez). Caballero and Stanton in particular provided reasonable lineup depth, and it won’t be available in the Subway Series. All teams have injuries, however. As a wise man once said: That baseball, Suzyn.

The Yankees are still waiting for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to play on the back of his baseball card and Grisham’s solid under-the-hood numbers to turn into consistent production. Ryan McMahon has never been a hitter, and hitter Spencer Jones hasn’t shown enough power to keep him relevant. I’m not sure how much to expect from those two.

Seven weeks into the season, the Yankees have a heavy roster with soft spots elsewhere. Chisholm, Jones, and McMahon are all rookies who often hit within three or four spots of each other, making for easy matchups (although the Mets are considering using Brooks Raley against Bellinger and Rice). Can the bottom half of the order collect something this weekend?

3. The Mets could really use this series

The standings make it clear that the Mets need a series win over the Yankees this weekend. The Yankees have lost six of their last eight games and are looking to get out of that funk, sure, but they’re close to the top of the standings and not in dire straits. On the other hand, the Mets have already made up for their mistakes. They should rack up more wins and soon be back in the postseason race.

The Mets just swept the series against the Tigers and this weekend is a chance to build on that. Beating the Yankees would have been better than beating any other team, especially for the fans. The Mets badly need a change of vibe. Taking the series from the Yankees would accomplish that. Empower the fans, change the vibes, and good things can start to happen.

Few things are more exciting for fans than young players coming into their own and Mets rookie pitcher Carson Benge is starting to do just that. A miserable April (.525 OPS) gave way to an excellent May (.888 OPS) and, this week, a move up to the leadoff spot. Fellow senior AJ Ewing came through earlier this week and drew three walks and a triple in his MLB debut on Tuesday, then hit his big league debut on Thursday.

“It definitely exceeded my expectations. It’s indescribable how it feels to play there in the big leagues,” Ewing said after the MLB debut (via MLB.com). “… I trust my ability. I’m going to play the same game I’ve been playing and do what I do.”

Benge’s recent success and the arrival of Ewing have given the Mets a boost both on the field and in their general vibe. Young players create positive emotions in a way that veterans cannot. If the Baby Mets can lead them to a series win over the Yankees this weekend, it could be the change in vibe and complete turnaround the Mets need to get their season on track.

4. (Citi) Field of Nightmares

The Yankees are 4-12 in their last 16 games at Citi Field, and haven’t won a series in Queens since 2018. All-time, the Yankees lead the Subway Series 83-69 (and the 2000 World Series), although the Mets have had the advantage a few years ago. Since 2021, the Mets are 15-9 against the Yankees, and are 6-2-2 in their 10-game series.

Now, what happens in 2021 or 2025 or last week doesn’t matter much this weekend. New series, new matches, etc. Facts are facts, however. The Mets have dominated the Yankees at Citi Field (and generally) over the past few years. Perhaps that gives a team that clearly needs all the help it can get a little confidence boost heading into the weekend.

Subway Series Predictions

The Mets played the Yankees in the last week or so, but I will say this The Yankees won two of three. Schlittler’s speed and fastball-heavy approach are a terrible combination for a Mets team that doesn’t hit at all. I think the Yankees will be out before Friday because of Schlittler, and then find a way to get another win on Saturday or Sunday. It has been predicted.