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Crypto analyst Egrag provided a historical analysis of the weekly XRP price chart, suggesting that the cryptocurrency is entering “uncharted territory.” Using historical data and focusing on key technical indicators.
Egrag highlights key changes in XRP trading behavior, emphasizing the fatigue felt by the XRP community during this long cycle. “This cycle has been very troubling and very abusive, especially when it comes to XRP. But don’t lose hope!” he says.
Why XRP Is Unbeaten
Key to Egrag’s analysis are two key indicators placed on a weekly scale: the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 55-week Simple Moving Average (MA). Both indicators are known for their responsiveness to price changes and have historically been indicators of XRP market volatility. The interaction between these moving averages, especially when they cross, is important in predicting potential bullish or bearish trends.
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Egrag identifies three types of crosses in his analysis, each reflecting different market sentiment. A bearish cross, marked with a red circle on his chart, occurs when the 21-week EMA falls below the 55-week MA, indicating potential bearish momentum. A bullish cross, symbolized by a green circle, occurs when the 21-week EMA falls above the 55-week MA, indicating a possible upward movement. A hesitant cross, represented by an orange circle, marks times when moving averages converge but do not cross with certainty, indicating uncertainty or possible market manipulation.
In Cycle A, XRP experienced a bearish cross followed by two bullish crosses, which had significant implications for its price trajectory. The time from the bearish cross to the first bullish cross lasted about 616 days, during which the market situation gradually changed. In the middle of this cycle, there was another bearish cross about 140 days after the first bullish cross, preceded by a second bullish cross that occurred 49 days later. This second bullish cross led to an explosive price move. Egrag comments, “We had a solid cross, followed by two crosses—one in the middle of the round and the second was explosive!
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Round B presented a different pattern, featuring one bearish cross followed by one bullish cross. The duration from the bearish to the bullish cross was about 763 days, indicating a long period of bearish sentiment before the market turned. During this cycle, XRP narrowly missed the previous bullish cross due to a significant price rejection, which prevented the moving averages from falling as they might have otherwise. “In the middle of the cycle, XRP narrowly missed the cross due to a large price rejection,” notes Egrag.
Currently, in Cycle C, XRP is showing a different behavior from the previous cycles in terms of both duration and complexity. From the first bearish cross to the first bullish cross, the cycle lasted about 441 days, longer than in previous cycles. Later, there was a period of 399 days leading to the second bearish cross. In total, Cycle C lasted about 987 days from the first bearish cross, making it the longest cycle since XRP’s inception.
Currently, the 21-week EMA and 55-week MA are converging but not yet definitively crossed, marked by an orange circle showing an indecisive cross. Egrag expresses frustration with this development, saying, “Right now, both indicators (21 EMA & 55 MA) are in the orange circle—right next to the retracement cross that we narrowly avoided. This is pure deception! “
Egrag’s analysis suggests that the unprecedented duration of Cycle C and the deviation from previous patterns puts XRP in “unbeaten territory,” indicating that the market may be ready for an unprecedented outcome. “After breaking down all these crosses, my takeaway is that Cycle C is different from Cycles A & B based on the number of crosses and duration. We are in an unprecedented place, so we will probably see something new this time,” he asserted.
However, Egrag is still optimistic about the future. He envisions the possible start of a ‘help phase’ for XRP, where the focus shifts from speculative trading to practical use of the cryptocurrency. “In my optimistic view, I hope this is the time when the resource phase starts, allowing us to spend our XRP instead of selling it!” he concluded.
At press time, XRP traded at $0.53.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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