The San Francisco Giants finally got a big fish. It only took the better part of a decade and the biggest deal in franchise history to make that happen. Shortstop Willy Adames now holds that distinction, however, as his seven-year, $182 million contract is reportedly higher than that of new baseball president Buster Posey.
The Giants, and perhaps Posey, find themselves in this position in part because the club’s 13-year, $350 million deal with Carlos Correa two winters ago fell through due to medical concerns. While Correa is coming off another (currently shortened) All-Star season, the Twins are reportedly open to trading the 30-year-old despite four years remaining on his contract. The 29-year-old Adames, on the other hand, is coming off perhaps the best year of his career with the Brewers.
That sparked the following debate among our MLB writers:
Money being equal, who would you rather have for the next five years, Willy Adames or Carlos Correa?
Rowan Kavner: This is a close call considering Adames’ durability and home run ability, but I have to go with Correa. He’s old with an injury history, but he’s also a three-time All-Star, a former Rookie of the Year and Platinum Glove winner and, as evidenced by his .905 OPS this year, a potential MVP contender when he’s healthy. The downside, of course, is that it often isn’t.
Adames is the best bet to stay on the field. He’s a consistently above-average player who just produced a career year offensively, though his strikeout and strikeout rate are past his offensive ceiling. The highest wRC+ Adames produced in a season was 126 (he was 26% better than league average offensively in the shortened 2020 season); Correa, on the other hand, has averaged a wRC+ of 127+ in his career (and a 126 mark over the last four years).
As of 2021, Correa and Adames rank sixth and eighth, respectively, in FanGraphs’ version of WAR among shortstops. It’s limited to the last three seasons, then the 10th and ninth. In other words, they’ve given up about the same amount in recent years, except Adames played in about 100 more games during that time. You can check those two ways. For one, Adames has been a reliable player. Second, Correa is usually a very productive player when he plays. Adames gets out of the yard more often, but Correa hits the ball harder, hits less and gets on base more often. Adames has produced between 3-5 WAR and played in at least 139 games over the last four seasons, but he has never had a season worth 5.0 or more WAR and has never been an All-Star. Correa, on the other hand, has played in just 139 games since 2017, but the ceiling (as evidenced by his MLB-best 7.2 bWAR season in 2021) is much higher.
After a down year in 2023, Correa showed both what’s left in the tank and the dangers of relying on him to stay healthy in 2024. He slashed .310/.388/.517 with encouraging on-base numbers in an All-Star season but missed. half a year with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Even as Adames produced one of his best seasons — the former Brewers shortstop finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for the first time while posting hits, homers, RBIs and stolen bases — Correa gave the same amount by about half. games.
I mentioned in our roundup this week that I thought Adames was a good fit for the Giants, who needed help in the middle defensively and make a difference in the lineup (the deal he was offered was exactly what I would have offered him). He was the type of player the Giants needed to get. But if I were to choose between the two, I’d lean towards Correa, with its high risk comes high reward.
Deesha Thosar: Adams. Maybe the recent bias of his successful walk year is swaying me, but the 29-year-old’s 161-game hitting streak in 2024 is outstanding, especially when compared to Correa. As noted, the Giants terminated their contract with Correa a few winters ago due to medical issues, and there should be no concerns about Adames’ physical health this time around. Given Buster Posey’s horsemanship during his early years in San Francisco, Adames’ tenacity may have rubbed off on the new leader of the Giants’ front office — as it should. Avoiding major injuries, and playing through minor ailments, is not only a rarity in today’s game, it’s an asset Correa just doesn’t have. Correa’s 86 games played through 2024 and the lingering questions about his longevity are hurdles that are really hard to look past.
Especially for someone like Posey, who is in the early stages of setting a new standard for Giants baseball stability, it’s important to include a roster of players that can be counted on. Not only was Adames known as the clubhouse leader in Milwaukee, he was a reliable bat in a premium position, too. Of course, shortstops get old quickly, so there’s always a risk of a physical decline in the field with Adames. But the pop in his bat, which he played well at Oracle Park, could solve some of his defensive concerns, and his credibility goes a long way if he’s considering a five-year deal. Adames has a .321 batting average, .381 on-base percentage, and .827 OPS in 63 plate appearances for Oracle. Now, the two home runs he’s hit in that span is lacking, but that’s to be expected in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I expect Adames’ walk rate to remove some of those power concerns.
As for Correa, he always looked like he was on the road to recapturing his Houston glory days — until he got injured. There is no doubt at this point that those evaluating Correa’s five-year deal must adjust their expectations. Correa, who missed significant time with plantar fasciitis this past season, can’t make promises about his strong foot, raising long-term concerns about how much production to expect from the shortstop. I’d be more weary of going down that road with Correa than committing to a firm, even expensive, deal with Adames.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, raised in Texas, and returned to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow him on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]
Find out more about Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about sports, news and more