Will people evacuate Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests not

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ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) – The news spread on Treasure Island, Florida, almost like a third hurricane: The mayor plans to leave the island off-limits a month after Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and two weeks after Hurricane Milton also devastated the state.

Mayor Tyler Payne’s home was flooded and damaged beyond repair, she explained in her message to Treasure Island residents, and she and her husband have no money to rebuild. He was stepping down from the position of mayor.

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“While it is heartbreaking to make this decision during our recovery from hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family,” said Payne, who has held the office for more than three years and is in her fourth term. -Treasure Island resident, said Monday.

Up and down Florida’s hurricane-ravaged Gulf Coast, residents are making similar calculations about whether to stay or leave. Can they rebuild? What will the insurance cover? People thinking of moving to Florida wonder if it’s worth the risk to come to a hurricane-prone area.

These questions about Florida’s appeal are raised every time the state experiences a busy hurricane season, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes made landfall in the Sunshine State.

If going to the government is any answer, the storms have served less as deterrents. Florida’s population has grown by one-third to 23 million in the two decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan devastated the state. Last year, Florida added more than 365,000 residents, second only to Texas among the states.

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On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s white real estate market is cooling off. Single-family home sales fell 12% in September compared to the same period last year. But interest rates, rising home prices and rising insurance costs likely played a bigger role than recent hurricanes.

“Florida is recovering faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors.

What happens after a storm?

Studies of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have shown that any exodus is usually short-lived, and when people do move, it’s often a short distance, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more income are more likely to return to devastated communities.

When it comes to the housing market, there may be an initial shock to supply as homeowners await reimbursement from insurance companies to repair their homes or sell them.

But three years after the storm, home prices in Florida’s worst-hit areas are 5% higher on average than elsewhere in the state because of less supply, according to a study of the hurricane’s impact on Florida’s housing market. 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be wealthier than before as wealthy buyers can experience price increases.

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Other factors that determine how quickly communities recover include whether the homes were insured, how quickly insurance is reimbursed and whether there are enough construction workers. Because of stricter building codes implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes hold up better than older ones, O’Connor said.

“If property is destroyed and it is not insured, the owner of the house says, ‘I don’t want to deal with this,’ there are always people who are willing to pick up that property because it is important land,” he said. “People are building new homes under the new codes and there’s less to do with hurricanes.”

Short term and long term

Recent hurricanes provide examples of what can happen to communities, both short-term and long-term.

In Lee County, home to Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian struck two years ago in what was one of the fastest growing areas in the United States. Population growth slowed afterward to 1.5% from 4.4% before the storm. The number of households fell from 340,000 to about 326,000, according to the US Census Bureau.

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In 2019, three-quarters of all United Van Lines truck traffic came into Lee County and a quarter went out, but that will drop to two-thirds and a third out by 2023 to 2024, the company told The Associated Press.

The share of people in their 20s, 30s and early 40s grew, as did the share of men without a partner or partner, reflecting the influx of construction and renovation workers. The share of whites decreased while the Hispanic population increased. The percentage of utility and transportation workers in the region has jumped, according to the Census Bureau.

Bay County in the Florida Panhandle, where Michael made the first Category 5 hurricane in the continental US in a quarter of a century in 2018, provides a snapshot of long-term trends. Four years later, Bay County had regained its pre-hurricane population, which had declined by about 6% in the year after the storm.

Since Michael, the county has grown more diverse, wealthier and older, with the median age rising from 39.6 to 41.4 and more people identifying as multiracial or Hispanic. The share of households earning $200,000 or more went from 4.3% before the storm to 8.3% in 2022, a sign that some of the wealthiest residents were unable to rebuild or return.

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The mayor of Treasure Island

In his message to voters, Payne said he will remain connected to the Treasure Island community because his parents plan to rebuild on the border island, which is one of the coastal cities along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. restaurants and bars line the street. Payne, a lawyer who is also an executive in his family’s eyeglass lens business, said in a statement that his decision to move was “difficult.”

“I am very sympathetic to the difficult decisions facing many of our citizens,” Payne said.

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Associated Press reporter Curt Anderson in Belleair Beach, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Follow Mike Schneider on social media X: ↕MikeSchneiderAP.

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