Why will French Prime Minister Michel Barnier lose a vote of no confidence?

A vote of no confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier happening in the French National Assembly around 19:00 (18:00 GMT).

If – as expected – the vote passes, Barnier’s government will fall.

Barnier, the former EU Brexit spokesman, was there he was chosen by President Emmanuel Macron to be prime minister in the last 90 days.

Macron, who is currently on a trip to Saudi Arabia, said he still believes Barnier’s government can survive the vote. “The interests of the country are more important than those of the parties,” he said.

But left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) MPs have already said they will vote against him, making it statistically unlikely for Barnier to stay in place.

On Monday, Barnier used special powers to push through his 2025 budget without the support of Parliament.

He did this because he knew he had no chance of getting the votes he needed from the opposition.

Barnier’s decision to use special powers to pass the budget angered the NFP and RN, which both tabled motions of no confidence.

Barnier, 73, has been in power on loan since becoming prime minister in early September.

This is because his appointment followed two months of political uncertainty caused by the inconclusive election, where no party won enough seats to govern.

He therefore presides over a National Assembly with different views.

His radical party needs the support of at least one of the two major parties – the NFP or the National Rally (RN) – to pass the law.

The NFP, which was the candidate for prime minister who was rejected by Macron in the summer, he was angry and Barnier was appointed and promised to always vote against him. It also saw Barnier’s budget – which includes €60bn (£49bn) in deficit reduction – as unacceptable.

So the goodwill of the RN was necessary for the government to stay in place.

But when it came to the budget, and despite many concessions, the RN also said it would not approve Barnier’s bill.

So Barnier had no choice but to ask for special powers to run the budget.

On Tuesday night, Barnier made a last-ditch effort on national television to convince MPs not to vote for him, asking MPs to vote “over political differences” and “in the common and high interest”.

However, this proposal is expected to pass, leading to the fall of the government. It would be the first time a French government has fallen to a vote of no confidence since 1962.

If so, Barnier may be asked to stay on as Macron looks for a new prime minister.

This was difficult in the summer, when it took him two months to come up with a name that would not be quickly thrown out by one of the main parties in parliament. The search for the next candidate may also take several weeks.

To fill the void Macron may also appoint an unelected technocrat government – but these tend to be short-lived as they struggle to be seen as legitimate.

New elections are not an option as under the French constitution they cannot be called within a year of the previous vote, which took place last July.

As president, Macron is elected in presidential elections every five years.

But many parties want Macron – who is due to remain in office until 2027 – to resign.

But on Tuesday he made it clear that he is not willing to do this, saying “he will respect you.” [the trust of the French people]… until the last moment of my time to serve the country.”