Henry McKenna
NFL reporter
The New England Patriots, apparently, are not in the business of developing coaches. They hired Mike Vrabel Sunday morning to replace Jerod Mayo, whose tenure as New England’s head coach lasted less than one calendar year.
The appeal with Vrabel is simple: He is what the Patriots hoped Mayo might one day become. Vrabel is ready to coach at a playoff level, but his new team is about as far from a playoff level as a roster can get.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft said he decided to fire Mayo because the team “regressed” during the year, getting upset by the Bengals in Week 1 but failing to post a respectable win past that point.
“I feel bad for Jerod because I put him in an irreparable situation,” Kraft said Monday. “He needed more time before taking the job. Ultimately, I’m a fan of this team first. Now, I have to go out and find a coach that can get us back to the playoffs and hopefully, the championship.”
There are expectations. Laid out.
Get New England back to the playoffs. And the Super Bowl.
That’s what having Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for two decades will do to an organization. Those guys set the bar as high as two men can in the NFL.
How soon does Kraft expect Vrabel to make a playoff run?
Because this group is not close.
At no point this season did New England look like they had the talent needed to make the playoffs. While linebacker Drake Maye is as promising as any rookie in this year’s class, he also struggled to close games, with some late plays ending his team’s hopes of a win.
He needed help: at offensive line, at receiver, at defensive line, at linebacker.
That was obvious. But the solution is not clear.
New England struggled to find talent last year, with a flurry of free agency flirtations with Calvin Ridley and another miss in trade talks with the 49ers regarding Brandon Aiyuk. The Patriots wanted to upgrade at receiver. They were ready to spend picks and money. Still, they couldn’t find one.
This year will be another tough arms market. If the Bengals extend or franchise tag Tee Higgins, that’s bad. Receivers Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett (potentially more vulnerable) should be there – but they’re all in the WR2 phase of their careers, at best.
The Patriots’ best bet to land a WR1 would be on the trade market. But was Deebo Samuel worth the risk after a string of unproductive seasons? What about Michael Pittman? Would the Seahawks even trade DK Metcalf?
It’s a similar problem at tackle, with the Ravens’ Ronnie Stanley set to hit free agency — but he may not get there because of the franchise tag looming. You can go down the list, and it’s not pretty. It’s not where you’d want to put tens of millions of dollars.
But the Patriots, who have about $120 million in cap space, will have to take a risk in free agency (which they weren’t willing to do last year). Vrabel’s reputation around the league is strong, and with Maye drafting well, both should be able to attract a better free agent class than New England did last year. But that doesn’t mean much.
Is Mike Vrabel a good fit for Patriots head coach?
If Vrabel and Maye hope to win quickly, and impress Kraft, the Patriots will need to do what Mayo got in trouble for saying last season: Burn some money.
New England will look to rebuild in the frame, which is Kraft’s preferred method. But the owner also showed his impatience this year. Draft development takes time, especially if the 2024 draft class is as big of a bust as it seems — except for Maye, of course.
Even worse, Mayo’s last act as a coach was beating the Bills in Week 18, which sent New England from the No. 1 overall pick to the No. 4 pick in the 2025 draft. That’s a gap worth nearly a future second-round pick in a future trade. And the Patriots may have tried to do just that by dealing Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders to the highest bidder.
When FOX Sports spoke with Patriots VP of player personnel Eliot Wolf before Week 18, he said the team didn’t get the “internal development” we were hoping for in the 2024 draft class.
This is where Vrabel needs to shine. His staff needs to elevate players like receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, who the scouting department thought was “plug and play” but managed 12 catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. That’s the average one-game stat line for Ladd McConkey, who the Chargers picked up in the New England trade.
You can’t blame a team for wanting to accumulate a draft pick, which would be such a crapshoot. Of course, without Maye, the Patriots’ 2024 draft class has yet to produce. Rookie offensive tackles Layden Robinson and Caedan Wallace weren’t ready to contribute. Neither did Polk or Javon Baker, another rookie receiver. The Patriots selected those four players in rounds 2 through 4.
A quantitative approach is yet to bear fruit.
To fix the problems, Vrabel will need to do basically everything Mayo couldn’t: hire a coaching staff capable of making the roster look better than it is; developing long-term internal talent; recruit foreign talent in a difficult season. And it wouldn’t hurt if the staff turned Maye into a top-10 QB.
That’s a long list of things to do.
That’s a to-do list.
Vrabel inherits a house with no walls, no kitchen, no bathroom. All he has is a frame (and, yes, that’s Maye in this metaphor). Kraft seems to be saying he wants to live in that home in September.
If that’s true, Vrabel is in trouble.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots at USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
Want good news delivered to your inbox? Create or sign in to your FOX Sports accountand follow leagues, teams and players to get a personal newsletter every day!
Find out more about the National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about sports, news and more