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Election Day with less than a week to go and voters are already heading to the polls and sending in their ballots, and betting markets have weighed in on whether Republicans or Democrats will win control of Congress.
Control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate has been hotly contested in recent years, and the last two Congresses have little history in both the House and the Senate. The GOP controlled a slim 222-213 majority in the House at the start of the current 118th Congress, after Democrats started the previous Congress with the same margin.
In the Senate, Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority when they include independent senators who lead the caucus and the Democratic Party. During the last Congress, the Senate was split 50-50 with Democrats controlling the majority because of racism. A tie-breaking vote for Vice President Harris.
Polymarket traders see the trend of many minorities continuing in the next Congress after this election. While the field currently sees an 83% chance of a GOP majority in the Senate, bettors also expect it to be by a relatively small margin.
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American voters will determine the balance of power in Congress this election as Republicans and Democrats compete for the majority. (Photos by Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images)
As of early September, Polymarket traders saw a 52-seat GOP majority as a similar result, which rose to 52% in early October but has since dropped to 25%. A GOP minority of 51 seats is the next most likely outcome according to bookmakers Polymarket, with a 16% chance.
Bettors see an 11% chance that Republicans will end up with 49 or fewer Senate seats – which would give Democrats a slim majority. They also see a 9% chance of a 50-50 split, which will give the majority to the winning team. The White House and has a vice president who can cast tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
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House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is hopeful that Republicans will retain their majority in the House. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images/Getty Images)
Polymarket traders see the battle for control of the House of Representatives as a reality, House Democrats having about a 50% chance of winning the majority in the previous week.
However, the platform’s unique market suggests that House Republicans they are likely to get a larger majority than they have in recent years, seeing a 29% chance of the GOP holding 230 or more seats in the House in the next Congress. It also shows a 15% chance that the GOP will end up with less than 200 seats – which would leave the Democrats with a majority of more than 235 seats.
BetUS odds see control of the House of Representatives as a clash between Democrats and Republicans with equal difficulty. It also has Republicans as heavy favorites to win control of the Senate.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., (left) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., hope to secure a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress. (Photos by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency – known as the “trifecta” – occurred in the first two years of a presidential term three times before the ruling party lost control of one or both chambers in mid-term elections.
Trifectas are useful in law enforcement tax and spending policies the budget reconciliation process is used, which allows budget-related legislation to pass Congress with a simple majority vote without falling short of the Senate’s 60-vote threshold to overcome a legislative filibuster.
Polymarketers see about a 46% chance of Republicans winning the trifecta, former president Trump winning along with GOP officials in the House and Senate. By comparison, the market sees a 15% chance of a Democratic trifecta following a victory for Vice President Harris and congressional Democrats.
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Bettors on the platform see a 20% chance of a Democratic president and a GOP Senate, compared to a 16% chance of Republicans winning the presidency and the Senate with Democrats controlling the House.
Only one other outcome – Democrats winning the presidency and Republicans controlling both houses of Congress – gained a 5% market share.