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In a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) on X, the analyst projects that XRP may reach the $15 mark in this bull run, depending on the historical patterns of price movements in alignment. The analysis delves into past XRP market cycles, using percentage-based specifications and chart pattern analysis to predict future price trends.
Is $15 XRP Price Realistic?
Bobby A’s analysis covers XRP’s performance during its 2017 market cycle versus its current 2024 trajectory. Since the 2017 breakout high, marked by the black horizontal dashed line on the chart, XRP has experienced an initial appreciation of 629%.
In comparison, the stock has appreciated about 331% since its peak in 2024. Extending further, from the December 2014 high to the May 2017 high—near the 4.236 Fibonacci retracement—XRP has seen a staggering 1,330% increase.
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Using the principle of halving the percentage increase, as noted since the first increase in 2017, Bobby A posits that the next push of XRP could result in an increase of 665%. This figure puts XRP at around $15.00 near the Fibonacci retracement level of 4.236.
“XRP appears to have halved its percentage increase compared to its 2017 market cycle. If XRP halves its next push from a percentage point of view, as it did with the first one, it will put the asset price around ~$15.00 near its 4.236 extension after a potential 665% increase,” explained Bobby A.
Notably, the analyst is also aware of the rising bull flag pattern, a continuation pattern that indicates the potential for further upward movement. This bull flag points to the upper boundary of the corresponding major channel for XRP, which is estimated at the $10.50 price level. “The current bull is flagging as the stock is targeting the top of its major channel near $10.50,” notes Bobby A.
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Another analyst, bassii (@cryptobassii), responded with an opposite view focusing on fractal analysis. Bassii postulates that the ongoing run could be reduced by 42%, projecting the price of XRP to reach $9, followed by a major decline.
He elaborates on fractal patterns, saying, “This run seems to be reduced to 42%, it will bring us closer to $9, and then it will go down a lot. But you are missing the last part of 2017, IF (big if) it happens, and we keep the same percentage, we get about $30 after months of accumulation.”
Or Even $35?
Bassii referred to his previous analysis when he emphasized the similarities between the 2024 run and the 2017 cycle. Notably, both periods show five consecutive weeks of green candles, albeit at different magnitudes—about 500% in 2024 versus 1,200% in 2017.
He points out, “2017: 5 weeks of green candles ~ 1,200%^, followed by 3 weeks of red candles down 63%. 2024: Again, 5 weeks of green candles at ~500% up (~1/2 of 2017’s run), followed by… (so far) 1 week of red candles at what? You guessed it… 30% down.” Subsequent correction phases are also similar, with XRP down 30% in 2024 compared to a 63% drop in 2017, each roughly halving in size.
Based on this, Bassii presents possible future movements based on historical patterns, suggesting that if XRP continues to follow these fractal patterns without significant divergence, it may rally in a few months and may rise to $30 in September 2025.
Responding to Bassii’s analysis, Bobby A expresses cautious optimism, saying, “Yes but I’m not sure that the final push will come. The next one I’m very confident in.” Bassii rounds this off by highlighting the importance of sticking to fractal patterns and real-time chart development, adding, “I think it will depend on how closely we follow the fractals and what the chart tells us during this upcoming run. So far it is being followed very closely. Weekly candles for the past 8 weeks have followed a beat by beat. I’m not a moon boy, I know what $30-35 feels like. But if we are still on track for 2017.”
At press time, XRP traded at $2.1581.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com