The Bills-Texans AFC clash is ‘a true coin flip in every sense of the word’

Power ratings drive the betting lines from open to close in Las Vegas.

During the NFL season, oddsmakers use their odds to generate numbers, bookies capture those numbers and post their lines on Sunday, and then professional bettors use them. theirs numbers all week to get edges and bet.

An ecosystem that washes and reproduces for months.

And it’s a much more powerful art than an exact science.

When the league’s top-rated teams hit the highway to face a playoff contender, you tend to get a little coverage that often comes with divisive opinions. That’s exactly what happened on Sunday’s AFC championship game between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and CJ Stroud’s Houston Texans.

Buffalo has opened -1 and the game is now decided.

“I know a team that played Houston +1, and I’ve seen Buffalo get back to +1,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports. “We know [PK] in the NFL it doesn’t matter. So the fact that there is a 1-1 deficit for each side, tells you everything you need to know about this game.”

Aside from the injury news, it’s hard to imagine the betting line being much richer for either side. And if you thought the pundits were putting a lot of stock in Buffalo’s 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, think again.

“Buffalo getting beat by Baltimore is a unique play that made the Bills look like a team they’re not,” Chernoff said. “The Bills have injuries up and down their defensive spine and the Ravens are as well equipped to take advantage of this opportunity as any team in the league.

“Houston’s not going to beat Buffalo the way Baltimore did. The Bills quarterback has been great all season, and they’re doing great. They look great. They’re great. [playing better] than we expected. They fit well with the Texans’ wide receivers.

“The big question is will this be another game for Stroud against the defending champions?” Chernoff continued. “He destroyed his entire career. [Sean] McDermott and [Bobby] Babich has been good in games where they have to come up with a specific game plan, even in the midst of injuries. This will be a winning plan for the Bills if it wins and pays. They will not be physically restricted.”

So … no bet?

“I can’t bet on the game,” Chernoff admitted. “I wish you the best of luck in writing a story about this one, because it’s divided by a currency that is respected on both sides. It’s a true flipped coin in every sense of the word.”

Since Chernoff didn’t bite – thanks to him for not forcing a badge he didn’t like down our throats – I took the conversation another way.

Allen (+400 on DraftKings) and Stroud (+800 on DraftKings) are signal callers with playmaking talent and two of the most popular options in the league’s MVP betting market.

If I gave Chernoff a quick $100 bill and Benjamin Franklin with a straight face and made him bet on one of the quarterbacks, what’s the move?

“Allen’s number came in big,” Chernoff said after taking a breather. “But I’m still going with Allen because he’s more of a team player than Stroud. Stroud has weapons. Allen has nothing. If the Bills make the playoffs and are in contention for the top team, there’s a lot of acceptance as to why Allen will go.

“The Texans have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, [offensive coordinator] Bobby Slowik, not to mention an excellent defense. The Bills have Khalil Shakir and halfback Curtis Samuel, and Allen is running around doing whatever he can.

“If the Bills get to 10 or 11, everybody’s going to be looking at Allen. And there’s no way they’re going to get to that number unless he’s a big, big part.”

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @sprout.

Want good news delivered to your inbox? Create or sign in to your FOX Sports accountand follow leagues, teams and players to get a personal newsletter every day!

---

---