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Analyst Crypto Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) sets a strong outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2024. Using historical data, Astronomer provides an analysis with X, suggesting an 82% probability of an ultra bullish trend based on the performance of Bitcoin in September. .
The crypto analyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on the unexpected positive performance of Bitcoin in September. “September is coming to a close and to the surprise of the general public, it looks like it will be green (by a long shot), with the possibility of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our thesis that we have had for a long time. now,” he wrote.
Delving into the concept of the market, The Astronomer notes a critical disconnect between public perception and actual market positions. “And while we are not alone in the complete bull thesis, data is data and remains. And after a thorough examination, despite the gaps in the speech/analysis, most of them have not been well, they have received the benefit early or they will enjoy the dips and say it is a gift for the reason they want it,” he explained.
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He also elaborates on the feelings within the closed circles: “These observations are not only from public documents or Twitter, but also from many paid groups that have participated to make this analysis. Not allowed to share names or details, but many groups are really long and take advantage early, want in, or are short. So the hand of the market seems to be working.”
82% Chance Bitcoin Will Be Bullish
Astronomer’s Bullish thesis relies on historical data, especially the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price. “The data analysis is simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months, i.e., green October, November, and December. And this happened 3/3 times since the inception of BTC,” he asserts , showing a strong seasonal pattern.
However, he is quick to temper this by criticizing his methodology, acknowledging the potential pitfalls of low data samples: “Now as I said, I’m not a big fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us 67% confidence to make the claim that months the next three will be really green (low data reliability). But to add importance, with the nature of the bullish/bearish binary, there is also an exception in the data: if September is not green, 6 times out of 8, Q4 was not green every month.
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He also refines his thesis, “Thus, with a specific input, a general and easy to explain claim, using additional data points is that: ‘The direction of September determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red. , bullish (not bearish) Q4 followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59k, there is an 82% chance that Q4 will be bullish’.”
This prediction sparked a dialogue within the community. User @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the possibility of an unexpected drop: “If September goes green to everyone’s surprise, October could also go red to everyone’s surprise.” The astrologer replied, confirming his reliance on historical trends, “Sure, but that’s not what we’ve seen in general. So, I personally, as always, stick to the data. “
The astronomer’s analysis ends on a positive strategic note, emphasizing the importance of keeping up with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than speculative ideas. “How is the fun? We’ll see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making quick money. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time, enjoying the market without stress and not having too many regrets about losing money or getting sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (rather than sooner), you reach your goals. “
At press time, BTC traded at $64,622.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com