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In an analysis shared on X, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) delves into a question that has been popping up in the crypto community in recent months: “Will we ever have another proper altcoin season?” As Bitcoin’s (BTC.D) dominance continues to rise and altcoins struggle to keep pace, Astronomer offers a data-driven perspective that challenges existing narratives that suggest the altcoin era may be over.
The astrologer begins by acknowledging the difficulties facing altcoin owners in the current market environment. “Alts are still at low prices and BTC.D is on fire, and yes, ETH (and altcoin) holders are having a hard time,” he notes.
He is seeing a growing sense of disbelief among investors that Bitcoin’s dominance may decline again, casting doubt on the possibility of another altcoin season. “You hear things like ‘BTC ETF changed everything,’ ‘Boomers won’t buy altcoins that’s why they won’t go up,’ ‘BTC is at ATH and alts haven’t done anything.’ All of which are easy to say and understand because they fit well with the current chart,” explained the Astronomer.
However, he cautions against taking the news personally. “They give you a sense of comfort and an excuse not to hold any alts, which is often difficult during a rally, especially when the BTC chart ‘looks’ so good,” he adds.
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To provide clarity, Astronomer offers its definition of an altcoin season: “A true altcoin season is one when the liquidity from the most dominant asset (BTC) flows to other assets (ETH and altcoins). As a result, BTC.D is going down and almost all altcoins are going up. “
The Case for the Upcoming Altcoin Season
The astrologer lays out a series of facts to support his argument that the altcoin season is still on the horizon:
#1 The Beginning of History
“First fact: we had a major altcoin season every single cycle (4-year cycle) like clockwork,” he asserts. This pattern is not only visible in historical charts but also in the accumulated memory of those who worked during previous cycles. The astrologer warns against accepting the idea that “this time is different”, which puts investors at a disadvantage. “History rhymes/repetitions,” he reminds students.
#2 Bitcoin Dominance Chart Follows a 4 Year Cycle
“The BTC.D chart is on track with its 4-year cycle,” notes Astronomer. He previously predicted that the top of Bitcoin’s dominance would occur in about 34 to 38 months of the cycle. “We are now 33 months into a 4-year cycle, which means the tides are about to turn in just a few months,” he said. Believing that Bitcoin’s dominance will continue to rise unchecked is actually betting against established cyclical patterns, according to an analyst.
#3 The Grand Crypto Rotation
“The first cycle of the Grand Altcoin” usually happens once per cycle: around Q4 in the 3rd year of the cycle and again it plays like clockwork until now,” says Astronomer. He explains that in previous cycles, certain altcoins (few) are active with early momentum, driven by a particular narrative, while most are experiencing significant gains later, fueled by the liquidity flowing from Bitcoin.
He cites the 2018–2022 cycle as a good example. “In this cycle, in the first 3 years, LINK is a good example as it is one of the 100 strongest altcoins and has added 100x, while ETH (and all other BTC-driven altcoins) have added an average 3x,” he explains. In the last year of that cycle, the dynamics changed: “ETH gained 10x, and LINK gained another 3x or more.”
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#4 Impact Overrated Of Bitcoin ETF
Addressing the idea that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF has fundamentally changed market dynamics, Astronomer is skeptical. “The story of the BTC ETF canceling the season has gone too far,” he said. He points out that since the launch, the total flow of the ETF has accumulated up to $40 billion, while Bitcoin’s centralized exchange (CEX) reaches $20 billion every day. “There is no ETF flow, that’s why you have never heard me talk about it as I like to filter the noise,” he said.
#5 Accommodative Monetary Policy is Twisted
The astrologer also highlights macroeconomic factors that may benefit altcoins. “Interest rates are going down, the US currency is growing a lot (while China is now following suit). The only thing we are waiting for is QE, which is a natural consequence of the (delayed) increase in M2,” he explained. Historically, such financial conditions have proven altcoin appreciation. “Monetary policy changes in our favor usually mean that altcoins do well,” he notes.
#6 Bitcoin’s All-Time High is a false indicator
He challenges the idea that Bitcoin is reaching an all-time high (ATH) without the corresponding altcoin season showing a permanent split. “BTC being at ATH is an unreasonable measure of when the season starts and when it reaches ATH but the altcoin season has not started yet, in my opinion, it is not valid to call it canceled,” argued the Astronomer. He emphasizes that timing and cyclical patterns are more important factors than price estimates.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $61,129.
The featured image was created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com