Bitcoin has shown resilience by pushing above key demand levels, but the psychological and technical barrier of $100K has yet to be claimed. This resistance has left investors and analysts in a state of uncertainty, with no clear short-term direction for the market leader. Despite this, the growing consensus among market experts suggests that BTC will likely see a significant increase in the coming weeks.
Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared some insightful data that highlights an interesting trend in BTC transaction activity. According to Adler, retail activity for jobs under $10K fell to the lowest point since the summer of 2021—a period marked by widespread market panic following China’s mining ban. This decline in retail participation shows that small investors are sitting on the sidelines for now.
Adler suggests that this reduced supply may change dramatically once Bitcoin returns to higher levels, sparking renewed interest and participation from small investors. This pattern is consistent with historical cycles, where sales often re-enter the market as prices begin to rise. With BTC hovering just below $100K, all eyes are on whether the bulls can break through and start a new phase of the rally. The next few weeks could be crucial for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitcoin Consolidates And Retail Investors Await
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase since November 22, when it first tested the $100K level. This important event initially brought great optimism, but the market mood quickly changed from extremely bullish to cautious and even bearish. Since then, Bitcoin has struggled to regain its momentum, with price action pegged below the $100K psychological barrier.
Another notable trend at this time is the cooling of retail operations. Senior analyst Axel Adler recently shared an analysis on X, revealing that sales involving prices up to $10K are at their lowest level since summer 2021.
The period was marked by widespread market panic following China’s mining ban, a time when retail investors largely exited the market. Adler suggests that this current freeze may be a precursor to renewed selling interest, which tends to develop as BTC starts to rally.
Despite concerns about retail inefficiency, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. The general consensus is that the market structure remains the same, and an exit above $100K could trigger a new wave of buying. However, there is still a risk if BTC fails to recover this key level, which could lead to further declines and increased uncertainty. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.
BTC Will Break Above $100K?
Bitcoin is currently trading at $98,800 after marking $99,857 in the past few hours. The price is testing the upper boundary of the critical psychological level, flirting with a break above the much-anticipated $100K. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the decisive move, as a breach of this level is widely expected to result in a price hike.
The $100K milestone is not only a psychological barrier but also a large supply point where sales pressure has historically closed rallies. However, Bitcoin’s consistent push to this level indicates bullish growth. Analysts believe that if BTC can close above $100K and hold it as support, the market can enter a new phase of price recovery, with great potential.
The anticipation associated with this breakout is evident as traders prepare for the possibility of a volatile increase. On-chain metrics suggest that buying pressure has been building slowly, with demand areas around $92K and $95K serving as solid support during the recent consolidation. While the immediate focus on Bitcoin breaking the $100K barrier, failure to do so may lead to a short-term reversal, possibly testing lower support levels before another attempt.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView