Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in the sixth Quad leaders’ summit in Wilmington, Delaware, US on September 21, 2024 has raised hopes of consolidating security cooperation between the “four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific”. However, it was India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval’s trip to Russia in early September for the NSA’s BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting, which included a high-level personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. , which requires a lot of analysis. Mr. Doval also had one-on-one talks with China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, which was equally important as India leaves no stone unturned to resolve the four-year-old military standoff with China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). ).
India is currently engaged in negotiations with China, and is protecting its interests while trying to keep the US engaged in maintaining the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. The basic idea behind the Quad (Australia, Japan, India and the US) is the creation of a strategic combination of principles, interests and objectives that will not only strengthen each country on its own but will also be able to jointly face the challenge of global revision. the existing world order. This is where India’s relationship with Russia becomes more important as Moscow is a serious rival of the Quad.
The role of creating peace
It is not easy for Indian security officials and diplomats to make this complex game work in New Delhi’s interest. However, Mr. Doval has a reputation for being thoughtful, proactive and persuasive. The Doval-Putin meeting, where Mr. Mr. Modi’s plan for peace in Ukraine, which Doval conveyed, can be interpreted as India’s attempt to cross the psychological Rubicon with great tact.
There is little doubt about India’s willingness, as an aspiring world power, to shoulder the burden of peacemaking which may include the meaningful role of a facilitator or mediator, if not a mediator. The Doval-Putin meeting was after the visit of Mr. Modi for the first time in Ukraine in August, and in Moscow in July. In particular, Russia’s visit received harsh criticism from Ukraine. But despite its criticism of Indian policies, Ukraine has, on several occasions, asked New India to help resolve the conflict.
Mr. Doval then met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, on the sidelines of the annual India-France Strategic Dialogue, to apprise him of India’s mediation efforts. Many factors have led India to involve itself in the international peace-making process, and the India-Russia problem is the most important of them. Although India’s strategic relationship with the US is NEW, India’s relationship with Russia has lasted for more than six decades, and New Delhi has no desire to give up the military benefits that come with this relationship. But as the war in Ukraine has caused Russia’s complete estrangement from the West, Moscow’s pivot towards China has become even more apparent. Functioning more or less as China’s junior partner, Russia has been struggling to maintain its relationship with India as its leverage with China has been slowly eroded by strong military resistance from Ukraine.
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From the Indian point of view, this needs to be addressed because Russia-China economic and military ties are becoming too close for New Delhi to ignore.
It is possible that the West agrees with India’s purchase of Russian oil at reduced prices and New Delhi’s silence regarding Russian aggression in Ukraine. However, India’s expression of an independent foreign policy comes with the usual costs. The West has seen India as clearly apathetic to issues of major importance in reshaping the global order after the conflict in Ukraine disrupted the rest of the post-Cold War world. By trying to play an important role in resolving the uncontrollable conflict of global proportions, India can hope to reset the terms of its relations with the West and Russia. While some voices may consider it an attempt to appease Washington, others may sound equally responsible in arguing that India is simply asserting its strategic independence while asserting its status as a ‘Vishwa Bandhu’, or friend of the world.
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Russia’s China welcomes you
Which has been a symbol of India’s foreign policy under the leadership of Mr. Modi has during the last decade a friendly, cooperative and sometimes transactional relationship with the US, and a non-competitive, ideological and fictional relationship with Russia. However, Russia’s foreign policy under Mr. Putin is driven primarily by two important goals: the deepening of the Moscow-Beijing nexus and the promotion of a diverse world order that can resist the hegemony of the western bloc led by the US Mr. Putin’s anti-western strategy includes China and India as close allies. But India is reluctant to commit as its strategic priorities are not fully aligned with those of Russia or China.
Russia’s apparent reluctance to downgrade its relations with India should have been based on the preservation of the balance of power between India and China and the avoidance of any major conflict between them. But the Russians have failed to give the same level of focused attention to India that they have given to China. The reason is not far to seek. If Moscow’s pursuit of a closer relationship with Beijing is driven by a shared geopolitical rivalry with Washington, Russia’s relationship with India lacks the same motivation.
Therefore, New Delhi is increasingly finding that Moscow’s use has ended largely because of Russia’s deepening of China’s ties. China has not only engineered many of India’s security problems on its Himalayan borders but is also trying to benefit from them. Most damaging has been Pakistan’s active support for promoting terrorism as a legitimate tool of statecraft. From the Indian worldview, Russia’s prioritization of China in its foreign policy has given Russian diplomacy an offensive character.
Russia’s estrangement from its relationship with the US has put Moscow at odds with Beijing, at a time when relations between India and China are still on the mend. In addition, Russia’s ambitions to pose a serious challenge to American hegemony by asserting a leadership role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS have also not been realized. With the war in Ukraine, Russia’s task of managing its relations with India has become more difficult. And that is what India is worried about, leading to a rebalancing of India’s great power relations.
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From the past to the present
This bold rebalancing does not require anything as far-reaching as a full India-US alliance. It requires our collective ability to continuously turn our backs on the unpredictable images of Russia protecting India from the machinations of the Pakistan-US-China nexus in the Bangladesh war. There are many doubts about the validity of India’s peace efforts when the war between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of abating. The argument is that New Delhi does not have the power to make any side at the negotiating table. And the Indian leadership is not used to channeling the resentment of both sides into mediation efforts. But that should not be a reason not to try to play the mediation game. Figuratively and literally, Mr. Doval publicly advertised and confused with Mr. Putin and Mr. Macron has announced a new foreign policy policy in which efforts to resolve conflicts are seen as an important part of India’s strategic independence.
Ultimately, the US desire to see Russia corrupted is something that India cannot accept. It is also important for New Delhi to preserve the gains of the past two decades by strengthening its strategic relationship with the US. New Delhi is aware of the structural obstacles that stand in the way of any far-reaching development of India-China relations, and is not emotionally committed to their initial development at cut-throat costs.
Vinay Kaura is Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs and Security Studies, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, Rajasthan and Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute, Washington DC
Published – October 08, 2024 01:48 am IST
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