Veteran journalist Rajdeep Sardesai frankly admits that like many pollsters and media pundits, his predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were off the mark. Like others, he was influenced by the self-confident boast of the “400 paar” and knows that the battlefield was no place to play. The BJP had money, the power of state investigative agencies and a threatened media that served as an echo chamber for the ruling party’s narrative. In his election campaign to cut off the whistleblower, the author says he picked straws from the air, but failed to see the whole picture. In retrospect, he is now thinking about the election.
In his ethnographic, readable, if slightly laughable, book, Sardesai as a keen journalist provides valuable insight into the various electoral scenarios across the country. The interesting details are not only due to his journalist’s instincts to bring out the truth, but also his honesty and courage to answer the powers that be, without affecting his words like many of his peers. In today’s climate, the consequences of being an anti-establishment writer can be dire.
BJP’s electoral figures have gone particularly badly in three states, UP, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Yogi Adityanath, the divisive but popular UP chief minister, was not included in the ticket list drawn up by the arrogant central leadership. In fact, Adityanath’s rivals spread the word that he was coming out. The CM was largely invisible during the campaign. The results came as a major shock to the unsuspecting BJP, whose tally dropped to 33, while the SP alone won 37, including Faizabad where the consecration of the Ayodhya temple was to be the party’s brahmastra. West Bengal’s ambitions were lost. Prime Minister Modi has visited Tamil Nadu more often than any other state and the BJP has waged a steady campaign to woo the DMK base. Buoyed by the arrogance of its Tamil Nadu leader K Annamalai, the BJP avoided alliances with regional parties, but did not win a single seat. On the other hand, the miscalculation of opponents in Odisha and Andhra worked for the BJP.
Tales of David and Goliath battles where the underdog wins against the odds are touching. In this case, it proves that democracy is still alive, if not kicking well. In Amethi, Kishori Lal, a humble group of the Gandhi family introduced the TV star turned minister, Smriti Irani. Fiery Dalit activist Chandrashekhar Azad contested the general party election and won in UP. Engineer Rashid, while incarcerated, had similar success in Kashmir, finding veteran kingpins Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone. In chauvinistic Bharatpur, Congress candidate Sanjana Jatav created history by becoming the youngest MP in Rajasthan, despite handicaps of caste, gender and poverty.
In today’s climate, the consequences of being an anti-establishment writer can be dire.
Sardesai writes that the major decisions of the NDA campaign were taken by what he describes as Jodi No 1: the Prime Minister and Amit Shah as the election manager. The two can trade mercilessly in their alliances; old friends are abandoned and sworn enemies embrace, depending on their ability to win. Twenty-five percent of the BJP’s 441 candidates were imported, most of them from the Congress. The author considers the PM’s low-key liaison officer, expert Hiren Joshi as the third most powerful figure in the government because of his closeness to Modi. Even senior journalists dutifully take news tweets sent by Joshi as verbatim, fearing they might be outed otherwise.
However, the fateful slogan “400 paar” was not Shah’s idea; in fact, he had realized that it might set him back. Sardesai says that the theme of the campaign came up during the discussions of a group of ministers including JP Nadda. Modi later endorsed it, hoping to send a message to party workers to aim for a better result than 2019. After three BJP MLAs spoke for the need to amend the Constitution, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge was the first to take this decision. accountability, saying the Constitution is at risk and reservation for the poor could be at risk. That was a turning point as the emotional issue escalated. The author also believes that Modi’s flamboyant and public speeches in the latter half of the campaign were an attempt to rally BJP supporters after an internal survey of the party revealed that it performed worse than expected in the first phase. Disappointingly, however, Sardesai does not explain the rift between the RSS and the BJP during the campaign, which is believed to be a major reason for the BJP’s decline.
The writer is contributing editor, Indian Express
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