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Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is siding with Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. Although it makes sense given the arguments he has made, I still believe that he may not be as biased as he thinks.
First and foremost, prediction market traders bet on these issues to make money, not to pledge allegiance to their favorite politicians. Traders are looking to make a profit and try to lock their bets with attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, such as positive GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that Trump has a very strong chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said the recent good run in the markets is due to the markets pricing in Trump’s victory.
Like Vivek, many say that since Polymarket is a crypto native, then its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market prediction platform, Kalshi.
In Kalshi, a US betting platform that pays contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also leading the way. Trump is currently up 20% over Harris. A lot of users on this forum seem to be picking their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting their political preferences aside. When I read the comments, I see many people saying they want Trump to win, but they take the other side of this bet as they believe that there could be fraud in the Democrats’ election that would make Harris ‘win’.
“Betting on Trump has not reduced the number of delivery vans that will enter the polling stations at 3 in the morning with 10 thousand votes, 99% of which go to Kamala and suddenly ‘get’ them,” commented another user. “Kamala will win officially or not, you have been warned.”
It will be interesting to watch how these prediction markets play out as we get closer to the election, which is only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these points will decrease. It seems to me that Trump has this one in the bag, but it’s not over until it’s over. In the last election, most people went to sleep thinking that Trump won the election, that the Democrats got all the votes and voted for Biden at three o’clock in the morning to win him in the election. If there is electoral fraud and disruption in this upcoming election, these prediction markets could be in for a very volatile time.
Trump’s win could be huge for Bitcoin in terms of regulation and price wise, thanks to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country will be uncertain, as he has not laid out real details on the policy he will implement during his presidency and has a four-year history of attacking the industry while in office. as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is partnering with Stand With Crypto to provide real-time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching the usual news and want to witness this election from a Bitcoiner’s point of view, be sure to tune in to the stream. More details on live streaming and where to watch here.
This article is a Take it. The views expressed are entirely those of the author and do not reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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