One hundred games into the 162-game season, the San Diego Padres were 50-50. They were poised to finish off another trophy year for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, not to mention a career offseason for Jurickson Profar.
On Saturday night, they shut out Arizona 5-0 in Phoenix to improve to 43-18 since falling to .500 on a July night in Cleveland. They did it with half the starters taking the night off and the fill-in starter from Triple-A El Paso, Randy Vasquez, allowing just one hit against a Diamondbacks team desperate for a win.
“There’s no doubt that this club, no matter who we put in there, is going to compete,” said first-year manager Mike Shildt.
What a 180-degree turn from last year, when San Diego reeled off the first sign of trouble and consistently failed to beat the closers. Bob Melvin managed one of the most star-studded rosters to an 82-80 record and missed the playoffs in perhaps the most disappointing season in the history of a franchise that knows a lot about disappointing seasons.
This isn’t one of those seasons, which is why you might want to put a few cents on the Padres if you’re looking for a cheap pick in the National League.
A lot of the “smart” money will be bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies. But Los Angeles’ staff is smaller than the runway model, and Philadelphia has been a sub-500 team in the past 65 games.
Which brings us back to why San Diego is your NL sleepover. Not only is it playing the best football of any of its contenders since mid-July, it may have the fewest weaknesses of any playoff team.
They may not start as well as the Phillies, but Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease and Michael King are a solid rotation. Cease has more strikeouts than anyone not named Tarik Skubal or Chris Sale, and Darvish and Musgrove have been healthy after missing long stretches of the season. King was a revelation, reaching a 2.95 earned run average in 31 starts in his first full year in the MLB rotation.
The Padres can match the Bulls with anyone. Even with his slump in September, Robert Suarez had 36 saves and nine wins. Tanner Scott and Jason Adam are excellent setup men, while Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon can shut down most MLB teams.
Offensively, San Diego has improved somewhat after trading Juan Soto, a bold move that could allow general manager AJ Preller to keep his job after last year’s flop.
Its lineup has more depth from top to bottom, typified by the 17 homers from No. 9 hitter Kyle Higashioka. Leads MLB in batting average and is in the top 10 in on-base, slugging percentage and runs. It also boasts less swing and miss than any major chain, sending far fewer strikes.
Think that doesn’t mean anything? Want to take a look at one of the hidden reasons why Houston has been great for ten years? It doesn’t hit too hard either. Despite the insistence of baseball scholars that hitting doesn’t matter, fielding gives a team less of a chance to make the opponent carry the ball.
Remember Mookie Wilson who paddled Bill Buckner’s legs in 1986? It doesn’t happen if Wilson doesn’t make the connection. Putting the ball in play always feels like swinging in your tuckus and missing a foot.
That defined the Padres’ 2023.
It won’t explain their 2024 playoff run.